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Sunday's Screaming Southeaster


CT Rain

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Meant to post this earlier.   I chose not to chase this system as I just got back from my 3 year wedding anniversary, and my wife was not cool with me immediately taking off again.   

That aside,  wanted to share that earlier, even here in Wilmington, NC...there were jet engine gusts roaring well above the trees as this system was rapidly deepening and consolidating off the coast.  A significant harbinger of what's to come up into your region.  

Safe to say, wish I was there, myelf! Good luck to you, all!!

Edit: Should add, as most already know, it will be all about how much of the intense winds of the LLJ can mix down to ground level, as there's no doubt they are ripping at the 850-900 mb level.    

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is another point....lots of anecdotal tales will be flying in the morning....."trust me, the big winds verified, I heard it"...."my grandmother's lilac was toppled, it survived many a bad wind storm".

This is why the point regarding ob station reports is such a good one.

Would like to see spots like GON and FMH hit at least 70mph or even more if there's a chance of this panning out like those EURO runs where it's got places like BDL at tropical storm force winds.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is another point....lots of anecdotal tales will be flying in the morning....."trust me, the big winds verified, I heard it"...."my grandmother's lilac was toppled, it survived many a bad wind storm".

This is why the point regarding ob station reports is such a good one.

Yeah...I pretty much only look at actual station obs. It's not because I think people intentionally deceive...it's because it is very easy to overestimate winds. I still do it and I've been out chasing wind events many times in the past with a hand held anemometer. It's really easy to be sure a 44mph gust was at least 60. Can't tell you how many times I was sure we were getting gusts to 70 on the cape and I look at the handheld and it says 56. On top of that, something like 45mph will in fact do pretty decent damage to trees with foliage still on them. Throw in a saturated ground and you could be looking at "equivalent" 50-55 knot damage. 

The damage is def a big threat...but in terms of the nerdiness of verifying the actual numbers...station obs over human estimation every single time. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...I pretty much only look at actual station obs. It's not because I think people intentionally deceive...it's because it is very easy to overestimate winds. I still do it and I've been out chasing wind events many times in the past with a hand held anemometer. It's really easy to be sure a 44mph gust was at least 60. Can't tell you how many times I was sure we were getting gusts to 70 on the cape and I look at the handheld and it says 56. On top of that, something like 45mph will in fact do pretty decent damage to trees with foliage still on them. Throw in a saturated ground and you could be looking at "equivalent" 50-55 knot damage. 

The damage is def a big threat...but in terms of the nerdiness of verifying the actual numbers...station obs over human estimation every single time. 

Yea, agreed.

I wasn't implying anyone is out to deceive.....its so difficult.

I can't estimate wind speed for the life of me.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the cape hit 70mph....hopefully.

Oh I think it's s no brainer on the Cape.  A lot less land friction and better mixing over the waters...those guys and the beaches have no issues getting into the low level jets.  Be interesting what happens 20 miles inland with the land interaction.

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Def starting to see some better obs on the south coast. But this is how it should go...it ramps up very quickly after looking pretty lackluster the first few hours of the evening.

I do think the coast is going to do really well...the bigger question to me is how widespread this becomes from E CT northeast through E MA off the coast in the interior. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Oh I think it's s no brainer on the Cape.  A lot less land friction and better mixing over the waters...those guys and the beaches have no issues getting into the low level jets.  Be interesting what happens 20 miles inland with the land interaction.

I raised the possibility of cane gusts there on my blog.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice. Love some ocean facing beach gusts.

Whats your tower at?  Can you see that remotely?

No just got a power alarm, came back on but a transformer exploded near Foxwoods. Also a 4 inch diameter 10 foot long branch just fell on my deck, no damage but it's going to be a long night

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def starting to see some better obs on the south coast. But this is how it should go...it ramps up very quickly after looking pretty lackluster the first few hours of the evening.

I do think the coast is going to do really well...the bigger question to me is how widespread this becomes from E CT northeast through E MA off the coast in the interior. 

My locale will be a really good test...classic, wind resistant, interior eastern MA venue-

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is another point....lots of anecdotal tales will be flying in the morning....."trust me, the big winds verified, I heard it"...."my grandmother's lilac was toppled, it survived many a bad wind storm".

This is why the point regarding ob station reports is such a good one.

Teltale for me here is, House i live in was built in the 40's, If we get winds of 40 mph plus the house creaks, That's when i go check the anemometer to see how high it went.

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