OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 That being said, there is no great Euro sounding source. So it’s not easy to tell what it is mixing down. But that 100 mph gusts over Pit2 shows you how crazy a product that is. I’m pretty confident on strong winds up here, but that’s a little extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 cool stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: After catching up with the thread, I feel like it should be noted that the best way to forecast wind gusts is with sounding analysis. Plenty if sites offer point and click forecast soundings now, obviously Bufkit is still the best. Winds at 925 or 850 can show potential, but you are just using approximations and rules of thumb. Wind gust maps are really just voodoo. You’re relying on a model to accurately predict surface winds (which they aren’t good at) and then you apply a blanket miltiplier to it typically. I believe the HRRR may actually try and use mixing height to pull down gusts, but the Euro maps are likely just a simple 2 or 3 times the wind speed. That may be able to highlight areas of concern, but the absolute values and thinking there is any sort of consensus for 70 mph gusts well inland with this event is mostly smoke and mirrors. Thanks for that informative post...I was always wondering how those gust maps were made. The EURO being just a multiplier would explain how it takes 20-30kts and turns it into 60-70 gusts. Also why the HRRR is drastically lower if it uses the mixing ratio to find the wind gust potential instead of a multiplier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Thanks for that informative post...I was always wondering how those gust maps were made. The EURO being just a multiplier would explain how it takes 20-30kts and turns it into 60-70 gusts. Also why the HRRR is drastically lower if it uses the mixing ratio to find the wind gust potential instead of a multiplier. As you know, wind gusts won’t mix down uniformly everywhere. Near the coast will be warmer, mixing depths should be deeper there. Likewise, downsloping will warm the column and increase mixing depths in addition to momentum transfer over the peaks. The Euro just seems like everyone gusts a uniform amount from the wind speeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Found out my godmother is out on Cuttyhunk tonight. I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Thanks for that informative post...I was always wondering how those gust maps were made. The EURO being just a multiplier would explain how it takes 20-30kts and turns it into 60-70 gusts. Also why the HRRR is drastically lower if it uses the mixing ratio to find the wind gust potential instead of a multiplier. I notice the HRRR and the NAM have stronger inversions. But, I think it may be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Getting better winds on from the stations on the CT shore now...tickling 30mph gusts. HVN gusting 28mph...GON gusting 30mph...Bridgeport sustained at 17mph...Meriden gusting 24mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: As you know, wind gusts won’t mix down uniformly everywhere. Near the coast will be warmer, mixing depths should be deeper there. Likewise, downsloping will warm the column and increase mixing depths in addition to momentum transfer over the peaks. The Euro just seems like everyone gusts a uniform amount from the wind speeds. HRRR max gust product confines big gusts over 50 to the immediate coast but continues to point to Cape Cod as max winds over 60 with Phillipes core. Hoping it's right here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Yeah we are finally getting a few gusts here probably U20s. Enough to hear it with windows open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I notice the HRRR and the NAM have stronger inversions. But, I think it may be too low. And that’s why we do sounding analysis. Maybe those warm noses are too warm vs. reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I notice the HRRR and the NAM have stronger inversions. But, I think it may be too low. Wouldn't the mesolow tracking into SE Mass have winds turn NE to the west of it? That's sort of a damming direction for low level winds? Like wedge in there in the lowest levels with that SFC flow just to the west of that circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah we are finally getting a few gusts here probably U20s. Enough to hear it with windows open. You might be in a precarious spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Wouldn't the mesolow tracking into SE Mass have winds turn NE to the west of it? That's sort of a damming direction for low level winds? Like wedge in there in the lowest levels with that SFC flow just to the west of that circulation. My hope, wedges are my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR max gust product confines big gusts over 50 to the immediate coast but continues to point to Cape Cod as max winds over 60 with Phillipes core. Hoping it's right here Regardless of the number, that’s been consistent. Congrats James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: And that’s why we do sounding analysis. Maybe those warm noses are too warm vs. reality. Opinion of HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Wouldn't the mesolow tracking into SE Mass have winds turn NE to the west of it? That's sort of a damming direction for low level winds? Like wedge in there in the lowest levels with that SFC flow just to the west of that circulation. It may just sort of slow the LLJ and in a very localized way..cause some extreme low level convergence and a narrow band of +RA. That's what I mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wouldn't the mesolow tracking into SE Mass have winds turn NE to the west of it? That's sort of a damming direction for low level winds? Like wedge in there in the lowest levels with that SFC flow just to the west of that circulation. Not at all no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Wind definitely heading up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You might be in a precarious spot Maybe, now we 30+. I don't know what to think. In the back of my mind, I sort of err on the more cautious side and not go with uber winds. Obviously strong..but I think 65+ is east of whatever low comes up towards CC. Not sold on that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Hoth said: Wind definitely heading up now. Where in the world is Hoth? Niantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My hope, wedges are my friend Hanging curve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not at all no lol ok thought Ryan posted something similar, will read back. You know you'll gust 70mph regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Where in the world is Hoth? Niantic? It's a remote, icy place, the sixth planet from the sun in its eponymous system. Thanks for asking! In all seriousness though, I'm in Hamden. Wind is rising quickly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Opinion of HRRR? Seems a little light. I haven’t taken a look at it’s forecast soundings yet (didn’t go out far enough last night), but I would think there should be more 40 knot gusts than it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Already coming down inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Already coming down inland No root system on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Probably a rotted out tree knocked over by an owl fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 LOL. what a softie tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol ok thought Ryan posted something similar, will read back. I would not be surprised at all if at some times people have relatively light winds interrupted by burst of good gusts. These type of events are precarious, and subtle changes in the inversion mean a lot. A meso-low could do some funny things with wind, especially to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: Probably a rotted out tree knocked over by an owl fart. Something you have expertise in? About 1/10" last hour and winds gusting around 30 mph now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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