CT Rain Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: I work at a utility company and we are in storm mode here, definitely concerned. All about the wind, which could be bad. Good luck. Keep us posted. I know Eversource has a bunch of people ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The winds are increasing as my dad and I drop off my brother at the naval station in Newport, Ri 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Winds are gusty here in Newport 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Sky looks nasty maybe this year you can work on combining your thoughts into single posts? the barrage of one-liners gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I could totally see gusts only 40-45 if the mini low east develops and we wedge some. Wouldn't take much. Other than the HRRR nothing shows that. If it’s right kudos to you on that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 maybe this year you can work on combining your thoughts into single posts? the barrage of one-liners gets old.I will work on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not sure it goes as far west as, say, here. Probably best shot Cape. Really curious to see the regionwide obs after this. The public is terrible at estimating winds from my experience on the mountain but the obs will tell the real story. I don't know what it is but everyone seems to over-estimate winds... like wow that must've been 50mph or more! Umm it registered as 38mph. I think 40-50mph will be plenty exciting for many. Gusts to 60-70+ is higher end stuff, even at the picnic tables much less in a forested housing development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Good luck. Keep us posted. I know Eversource has a bunch of people ready. 2 trucks in my town propositioned, son in law called in by his Tree company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Which town are you in? Let us know how things look! Ryan, I'm in Killingly ( I work with your cohort Josh on weekends). Right now it's relatively calm with less than a 1/4 of rain and negligible winds, later on if I have time I'll try to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Other than the HRRR nothing shows that. If it’s right kudos to you on that forecast. Keep up. The HRRR is the most bullish with the most separation between low one and Philippe Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, kbc360 said: I usually limit my posts to winter interaction with Ginx, but as a fire chief in NE CT this one has me concerned Stay safe bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbc360 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Stay safe bro That definitely is the challenge for my crews, thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 The Block Island water company has a Davis on the top of their water tower. Will be cool to monitor the wind obs from it. It updates every few seconds as well. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KRIBLOCK2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Still not much in the way of wind, but the rain has been relentless. The radar off the ocean is crazy too, way more rain than I thought we would have so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-68.17,37.81,2104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Oh, what I'd give to see a radar like that in mid January with a fresh 1030 high up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Wind seems to be picking up a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 62F cloudy and 20 knot wind gusts in Chatham MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Really curious to see the regionwide obs after this. The public is terrible at estimating winds from my experience on the mountain but the obs will tell the real story. I don't know what it is but everyone seems to over-estimate winds... like wow that must've been 50mph or more! Umm it registered as 38mph. I think 40-50mph will be plenty exciting for many. Gusts to 60-70+ is higher end stuff, even at the picnic tables much less in a forested housing development. My weather stations anemometer sucks for maximizing winds but my Downeaster will get the job done with recorded gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 39 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I could totally see gusts only 40-45 if the mini low east develops and we wedge some. Wouldn't take much. Vertically, how are they stacked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Friggin' 18z RGEM has 90kts plus at 925mb over SE MA and CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I've been watching this evolve from the tropical side of things. NHC has issued its last advisory but notes latent heat transfer from Phillipe's MCS to the coastal bomb. A little late October excitement for the forum it seems. I know some of you are getting the old adrenaline rush, but I do hope you folks don't wake up to too much tree damage tomorrow. The trees are at or just past peak, but still foliated. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 0.31” of rain. Hubbardston MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: What would be the next wind upgrade ? TS? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Tropical headlines are different than regular wind headlines. So the progression is wind advisory, high wind warning, extreme wind warning (cat 3 winds or higher). So there is a large range for a HWW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Does the fast movement of this storm increase wind speeds? Like similar to 1938 where everything happened in 2-3 hours but storm moving 60 mph increased surface winds . Just to an obviously lesser degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just hit 3.00" for the day, it is quite breezy but nothing crazy yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does the fast movement of this storm increase wind speeds? Like similar to 1938 where everything happened in 2-3 hours but storm moving 60 mph increased surface winds . Just to an obviously lesser degree? To the immediate east of what’s left of Philippe, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahofan Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Power out in Groton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: To the immediate east of what’s left of Philippe, sure. Latest NAM, RGEM and HRRR track that right up 'Gansett Bay. May be "fun" for a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 After catching up with the thread, I feel like it should be noted that the best way to forecast wind gusts is with sounding analysis. Plenty if sites offer point and click forecast soundings now, obviously Bufkit is still the best. Winds at 925 or 850 can show potential, but you are just using approximations and rules of thumb. Wind gust maps are really just voodoo. You’re relying on a model to accurately predict surface winds (which they aren’t good at) and then you apply a blanket miltiplier to it typically. I believe the HRRR may actually try and use mixing height to pull down gusts, but the Euro maps are likely just a simple 2 or 3 times the wind speed. That may be able to highlight areas of concern, but the absolute values and thinking there is any sort of consensus for 70 mph gusts well inland with this event is mostly smoke and mirrors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Latest NAM, RGEM and HRRR track that right up 'Gansett Bay. May be "fun" for a bit here. Puts the local area up here more into play. “Landfall” on the elbow of the Cape brought the best winds too Midcoadt Maine last night, so any tick west is good for GYX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.