powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough for me to get too amped up about this. LLJ are like inverted troughs, backlash and severe threats. Very real phenomena, but if you arr relying on them you will be disappointed 9/10 times around here. Hopefully this is the 1 in 10 time it works. Gonna be ripping at 2,000ft regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Picnic tables already shaking in 40mph with gusts to 67mph. Maybe we can flip a table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Euro WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Not saying it’s correct ****, but the Euro run after run after run has been showing 70-80mph gusts for CT and East. I know Ginx has mentioned it’s been good over the past year in general with winds. Just making a note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Weenie Kuchera maps. I would take the under on a lot of that. Anyways as I said in the NYC thread..it's all about where the low tucks in. Notice it ticked east from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is def something that shouldn't be overlooked. We just came off a pretty good rain event too. So the soft ground could make a 45mph gust effectively be a 60mph gust. It's a variable that maybe lets you go a little more bullish in terms of damage...since you don't necessarily need to verify the highest winds in the envelope of solutions to get it. Agreed. Hit the damage side of thing as I really think 40-50 gusts in the interior is higher than a lot of folks think and will do more damage than some think they will. Legit 45mph through the forest will uproot trees and knock out power. Maybe I'm wrong and a bunch of PWS and ASOS or other stations in the interior record 55-70mph gusts...but I think we find a decent amount of damage like in a summer thunderstorm with obs in the 40-50 or maybe 55mph zone. Legit 55mph winds in a forested neighborhood can flatten an interior New England woodland with leaves on it. Hopefully some realize just how strong 50-55mph is and because a tree came down in the backyard doesn't mean it was 70mph. Homes are shedding shingles at that speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Euro pretty windySent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I'm not gusting to 70mph. 50mph is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weenie Kuchera maps. I would take the under on a lot of that. Anyways as I said in the NYC thread..it's all about where the low tucks in. Notice it ticked east from NYC. Do they make 925mb weenie maps? 170kph touching coastal Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Do they make 925mb weenie maps? 170kph touching coastal Mass. Those numbers seem awfully high in the far interior. That's all I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: That top map is fascinating. I don't think I've ever seen a model showing significant downsloping winds into the CT River Valley. You can see the upslope/downslope couplets easily. East side of ORH Hills and Berks with much less than the lee side western slope of all hills. That's awesome mesoscale stuff for SNE. Also eastern side of Whites very low with huge winds downsloping on the west side. That slight terrain drop may be able to mix it down from 2-3k feet in the CT River Valley over to Tolland. Blizz being on the west side will definitely help him and not on the eastern upslope zone where the wind is going up and over a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Those numbers seem awfully high in the far interior. That's all I mean. I completely agree. I was just joking bc it looks a bit extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 What would be the next wind upgrade ? TS?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: What would be the next wind upgrade ? TS? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That top map is fascinating. I don't think I've ever seen a model showing significant downsloping winds into the CT River Valley. You can see the upslope/downslope couplets easily. East side of ORH Hills and Berks with much less than the lee side western slope of all hills. That's awesome mesoscale stuff for SNE. Also eastern side of Whites very low with huge winds downsloping on the west side. That slight terrain drop may be able to mix it down from 2-3k feet in the CT River Valley over to Tolland. Blizz being on the west side will definitely help him and not on the eastern upslope zone where the wind is going up and over a bit more. I really am amazed at how well all these models ( not just the Euro) keep showing the higher gusts over the terrain enhanced areas. It’s fascinating.. whether or not they’re right time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Damn, that's nuggin futs for Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Then again the HRRR gust product seems reasonable so perhaps it's right. It's like forecasting over a foot of snow in BOS with east winds...these srly LLJ regimes. Normally it does not happen...but then a Jan 11-12 2011 can happen. Ask Jerry aboutt that one. GFS BUFKIT at BOS is frankly beyond absurd. It's tough to buy..but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not gusting to 70mph. 50mph is doable. Yep, definitely taking the under in the Merrimack Valley. Hurricane Andrew could be barreling up the Merrimack and I'd take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not saying it’s correct ****, but the Euro run after run after run has been showing 70-80mph gusts for CT and East. I know Ginx has mentioned it’s been good over the past year in general with winds. Just making a note Pretty consistent, but I would lop off 25% on those in general. At lease N of the Pike/West of 495 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Then again the HRRR gust product seems reasonable so perhaps it's right. It's like forecasting over a foot of snow in BOS with east winds...these srly LLJ regimes. Normally it does not happen...but then a Jan 11-12 2011 can happen. Ask Jerry aboutt that one. GFS BUFKIT at BOS is frankly beyond absurd. It's tough to buy..but who knows. The Euros wind gusts for all of CT and SNE are wild to say the least...don't know if I'm believing that either??? But almost all the models are showing the same ideas...so is this truly that one in thousand type of event that blows the socks off most all of us??? Or is it a big flop for most and a modeling blunder?? Tough tough call?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I really am amazed at how well all these models ( not just the Euro) keep showing the higher gusts over the terrain enhanced areas. It’s fascinating.. whether or not they’re right time will tell That EURO map is crazy...the western slope into the CT Valley makes sense. A slight dip in terrain will mix it down as the flow comes over the "crest". East Slope Berks minimum with west slope maximum makes sense too. Fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yep, definitely taking the under in the Merrimack Valley. Hurricane Andrew could be barreling up the Merrimack and I'd take the under. I had been pretty much ignoring this event, but I think I'm going to take a last minute opportunity to address it on my blog.......I'll take my best shot at peak gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The Euros wind gusts for all of CT and SNE are wild to say the least...don't know if I'm believing that either??? But almost all the models are showing the same ideas...so is this truly that one in thousand type of event that blows the socks off most all of us??? Or is it a big flop for most and a modeling blunder?? Tough tough call?? That's a lot of questions to answer in one post. Going with gusts to 55 for DXR, which is higher than I originally anticipated even yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pretty consistent, but I would lop off 25% on those in general. At lease N of the Pike/West of 128 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 HRRR brought whatever that low is, into SE MA. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 60-70 gusts seems like a good bet imoSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR brought whatever that low is, into SE MA. Wow. Just barely east of that is gonna get ripped with huge winds I'm pretty sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR brought whatever that low is, into SE MA. Wow. Ya seems it's like two separate storms just hangin out together opening cans of whoop azz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.