Chinook Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 The 12z GFS forecast sounding at Nantucket has 48 kt at the surface and about 89-90 kt at 1 km above ground (3000 ft above ground.) That might translate to a near Category-1 wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro gearing up for something decent I think. Going to be west I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Going to be west I think Looks like it is def a bit west. Over NNJ at 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 That would be windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That would be windy. Still has that little turd trying to redevelop on the far SE side...not sure how much that would ultimately disrupt the LLJ. We'll prob see a lot of model wiggles because of the tropical convection out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Is it reasonable to assume this is viable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Still has that little turd trying to redevelop on the far SE side...not sure how much that would ultimately disrupt the LLJ. We'll prob see a lot of model wiggles because of the tropical convection out there. There is quite the jet at 850 on the freebie tropical tidbit site. Looks like it crosses SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Is it reasonable to assume this is viable? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Still has that little turd trying to redevelop on the far SE side...not sure how much that would ultimately disrupt the LLJ. We'll prob see a lot of model wiggles because of the tropical convection out there. Yeah but it's a lot less significant with that SE microlow than the 00z run was. Funny to see both the UKMet and ECMWF at exactly 974mb over NJ or SE NY. Good consensus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, Chinook said: The 12z GFS forecast sounding at Nantucket has 48 kt at the surface and about 89-90 kt at 1 km above ground (3000 ft above ground.) That might translate to a near Category-1 wind gusts. not that anyone isn't per se ... but I'd like that shocking depth back to standard PP recovery rate taken seriously there. Not sure we can plumb the surface to a 970 mb (or lower) depth and just blase restore that much mass without hell to pay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Almost 80kt at H92 over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 50mph gusts statewide with some higher gusts over the s and se coast. 2-5” of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 That would be quite the wind event coast to Maine I think. Those strong 925 winds look to cross SE CT to near and east of ORH on northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not that anyone isn't per se ... but I'd like that shocking depth back to standard PP recovery rate taken seriously there. Not sure we can plumb the surface to a 970 mb (or lower) depth and just blase restore that much mass without hell to pay - okay Tip. Translate that down 25 IQ points so I can understand what your saying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: okay Tip. Translate that down 25 IQ points so I can understand what your saying! what part ? uh...seriously don't see what's hard to understand there. oh PP ? that just means pressure pattern - I've seen it used in AFDs around from time to time so figured folks would know. anyway, standard PP ...1013 or so MB at surface. so figure, if the low gets down into the high 960s as it is passing across eastern Massachusetts, how are we going to get (restore) the surface pressure back to normal? wind ... but it also depends. sometimes these set ups don't produce as big as they look like they could. this is definitely one of those candidates that looks like it could. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 50mph gusts statewide with some higher gusts over the s and se coast. 2-5” of rain. Can't see why that wouldn't happen with 500 mb occlusion in SNY. The CCB with this is going to be really efficiently mixed down into that warm conveyor being sourced from the Caribbean. Incredible air mass juxtaposition there. Summer and winter seperated by a few hundred miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 actually that low is bit west on this solution... if it goes west like that... we could see huge winds mix down in open barotropic well mixed region on the eastern sector, primarily east of Tolland - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 I was confused by PP. makes sense now. I had not seen that used before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I was confused by PP. makes sense now. I had not seen that used before. i learned PP while still in a diaper, ya know I have to go PP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: i learned PP while still in a diaper, ya know I have to go PP My Pressure Pattern is 8 times a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: i learned PP while still in a diaper, ya know I have to go PP I’ve joined the 3AM brigade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 We gonna SSSScreeeaaammm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Don't forget about the underground shelter for tornadoes and hurricanes and a well for devastating droughts. And Kevin's incessant need to find toilet paper for humid days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We gonna SSSScreeeaaammm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 47 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’ve joined the 3AM brigade. Oz euro check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Gfs east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Gfs east. Always does this with every storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs east. LEts see if we can get one more tick east for a paste bomb in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs east. Oh Noes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2017 Author Share Posted October 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gfs east. Ugly setup for the wind fetish crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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