NorEastermass128 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 48 minutes ago, dendrite said: Should be a nice night at Rockport. Well, shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Over/Under for KFIT highest gust? I’m going with 46mph I'm debating going 39 or 41 at the Pit. I'll go 39 overnight with 46 tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Tough for me to get too amped up about this. LLJ are like inverted troughs, backlash and severe threats. Very real phenomena, but if you arr relying on them you will be disappointed 9/10 times around here. I'd like to see a hurricane track west of me for big wind....not this "well, there is a good LLJ at 925mb, so if you get a hail mary severe T storm (yea right, in its own right), no inversion and a random tropical system sling shots off of Bermuda and into chapter 8 of The Dawn Awakening, then we could mix that down. The more factors, the less margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 That said...good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tough for me to get too amped up about this. LLJ are like inverted troughs, backlash and severe threats. Very real phenomena, but if you arr relying on them you will be disappointed 9/10 times around here. I'd like to see a hurricane track west of me for big wind....not this "well, there is a good LLJ at 925mb, so if you get a hail mary severe T storm (yea right, in its own right), no inversion and a random tropical system sling shots off of Bermuda and into chapter 8 of The Dawn Awakening, then we could mix that down. The more factors, the less margin for error. yeah pretty much - good reasons to be skeptical, especially well inland buuut I will say if we can get the remnants of Phillipe (or w/e we wanna call it) to come in more tucked / goes west of us, then it could be wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, ma blizzard said: yeah pretty much - good reasons to be skeptical, especially well inland buuut I will say if we can get the remnants f Phillipe (or w/e we wanna call it) to come in more tucked / goes west of us, then it could be wild Totally....not saying anyone is wrong. We just need alot to work out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Totally....not saying anyone is wrong. We just need alot to work out right. oh for sure the last time mby had severe criteria wind was probably 5/98 .. literally need everything to line up perfectly for it to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoth said: Where's Ginxy? The 24 wv loop on Cod is right up his alley. Mesmerizing. Storm prepping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I'd def stay reserved inland for now...but I think for the coast line of SE CT to RI to the Cape and then even along the E MA coast including BOS...I'd start expecting HWW stuff. They will be right where the LLJ is starting to go apesh**. I might forecast marginal HWW for places like ORH airport. As I said earlier, they will be a very good test for how well stuff is mixing over the deep interior. They are literally completely exposed to the south and east looking all the way into CT and RI and BOS. If they aren't gusting to 50 knots, then not many over the deep interior are. My little hill in Holliston is actually pretty exposed toward the south and east too so I'll have to see what we pull off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Can’t be stressed enough.. when you see Ryan and Scooter pumped about interior winds.. you’d damn well better pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can’t be stressed enough.. when you see Ryan and Scooter pumped about interior winds.. you’d damn well better pay attention I said you have to have things to work out for the interior to really blow hard. I'm not 100% confident in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Gotta have close to 2 inches of rain since this morning.....thinking it may not take much to blow some trees right over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can’t be stressed enough.. when you see Ryan and Scooter pumped about interior winds.. you’d damn well better pay attention the real interior FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, db306 said: Gotta have close to 2 inches of rain since this morning.....thinking it may not take much to blow some trees right over. This is def something that shouldn't be overlooked. We just came off a pretty good rain event too. So the soft ground could make a 45mph gust effectively be a 60mph gust. It's a variable that maybe lets you go a little more bullish in terms of damage...since you don't necessarily need to verify the highest winds in the envelope of solutions to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I said you have to have things to work out for the interior to really blow hard. I'm not 100% confident in that. Well I’m assuming you say blow hard you mean 60-70+. 55+ seems locked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is def something that shouldn't be overlooked. We just came off a pretty good rain event too. So the soft ground could make a 45mph gust effectively be a 60mph gust. It's a variable that maybe lets you go a little more bullish in terms of damage...since you don't necessarily need to verify the highest winds in the envelope of solutions to get it. Just been pouring all morning here right up the CT River Valley....should be an interesting evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, db306 said: Gotta have close to 2 inches of rain since this morning.....thinking it may not take much to blow some trees right over. Yeah, don't have a gauge, but thinking it's gotta be close to 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 .47 here so far. Started raining about 10:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Driving south from Greenfield to Springfield the rain definitely got progressively heavier the further south we drove. Raining hard enough that many cars going under the speed limit on I-91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Driving south from Greenfield to Springfield the rain definitely got progressively heavier the further south we drove. Raining hard enough that many cars going under the speed limit on I-91 You can gauge the level of weather by this alone lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Ukie also a monster!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Yip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 The winds east of that must be nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Areas under that LLJ are going to rip and rip hard. Not a great deal of agreement either has to how far inland (at least when talking about CT) the LLJ max rides. This is a point-and-click sounding from the 12z GFS for an area in SE CT which is damn close to that max. A bit of an unstable layer there just above the surface. Probably enough for some crazy winds there...inland CT though profile is pretty damn moist adiabatic with no real unstable layer...could halt the big winds across inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Seems like multiple models now are sub 970 with the low, including the UK, NAM & GFS. I know many Euro members were also, was the OP the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, db306 said: Yip The map in NYC forum shows the low going up central NJ. Is the low above the remains of the TS? Also, I see the hurricane force wind warnings are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 This is panel right before that one. Almost like first low goes up north and second one (maybe Phillipe?) is the 967? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 If the Euro is still a beast i think even the interior will see some very good winds.. All models definitely trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: .47 here so far. Started raining about 10:00 We have to have 4 times that amount here. Non stop rain since about 6:30 am! And pouring a lot of that time. i remember talk Friday evening and even yesterday morning of Sunday being dry a good chunk of the time. That certainly didn't happen here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Rarely ever see HWW here. Winds generally underperform here in my experience but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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