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Sunday's Screaming Southeaster

CT Rain

By CT Rain,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin might do better. He's gonna be close to the LLJ sling back and gets good exposure.

I'm just saying from an actual 2-10m windspeed...CT is all heavily forested vs ORH which is a wide open airfield with little friction and absolutely no terrain at all to the southeast.  It's like in the free-air.

Kev needs to start clearing oaks for a mile in all directions.  Hard to match winds in a wide open spot when you are densely forested.  We'll see what his Davis gets.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I'm just saying from an actual 2-10m windspeed...CT is all heavily forested vs ORH which is a wide open airfield with little friction and absolutely no terrain at all to the southeast.  It's like in the free-air.

Kev needs to start clearing oaks for a mile in all directions.  Hard to match winds in a wide open spot when you are densely forested.  We'll see what his Davis gets.

His Davis is on mulch so his anemometer is proably under a large oak limb. :lol:   I just mean in a general sense.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

His Davis is on mulch so his anemometer is proably under a large oak limb. :lol:   I just mean in a general sense.  

Yeah I know modeled it makes but those little things on the ground matter haha.  Forested vs open.  I hate the "we were gusting 60-70mph above the trees"...like congrats?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

If anyone gets a chance, loop the HRRR 10m winds. That's what I mean about throwing a wrench into forecasts. You have these meso lows that will locally enhance/decrease winds depending on which side you are on. That's the difference between 50mph or 70+. Concerning that TS Phillipe edging closer on guidance.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Over the years, I feel the wind has driven forecasters to sigh hard and grope necks quite a few times. 

QPF takes center-stage, as it should. With flood concerns and so forth, or just the physicality of standing around in a heavy rain versus standing around in stout wind gusts - which one garners the attention?  But, wind really has to be REALLY strong before it becomes anything other than just adding drama. And, I can no longer count how many times I've seen a high wind warned scenario not truly verify ... outside of a neighborhood or two,  out on an seagull-crapped barrier islet, or the top of the Pru'.

Still, it is alarming that so many products from so many different product sources are soaring gust numbers into the 60s (and those aren't centimeters per hour, either).  It's gonna be an interesting test for that specific forecast effort - the correct predetermination of wind significance.  Helluva challenge... and the stakes are higher because this echelon of wind gusts numbers that we are being sold are definitely way richer than merely passing muses and drama. A 65 mph wind gust is ... actually kinda scary to be blunt. That walls of even well-built homes may 'tick' and/or creek, while lesser fortunate edifices ...they may actually kite away pieces of their roofs.  Much of which happening after the power failure has rendered one's living room very dark, such that the wind is the only voice left to fill the silence, too.  I mean ...that's not trivial by any sense of fairness.  Particularly, the Euro?  e-gads. That's inside of day four, when and where that particular guidance species proves why all models really are not created equally.

Don't know about the Euro's handling of wind in general tho -

Still, I swear I've been to this rodeo before with the wind histrionics.  I suppose I'm on the fence with this... I am very cautiously in favor of bigger numbers being verified, while not being shocked if someway some how things end up very windy but more manageable.   

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Over the years, I feel the wind has driven forecasters to sigh hard and grope necks quite a few times. 

QPF takes center-stage, as it should. With flood concerns and so forth, or just the physicality of standing around in a heavy rain versus standing around in stout wind gusts - which one garners the attention?  But, wind really has to be REALLY strong before it becomes anything other than just adding drama. And, I can no longer count how many times I've seen a high wind warned scenario not truly verify ... outside of a neighborhood or two,  out on an seagull-crapped barrier islet, or the top of the Pru'.

Still, it is alarming that so many products from so many different product sources are soaring gust numbers into the 60s (and those aren't centimeters per hour, either).  It's gonna be an interesting test for that specific forecast effort - the correct predetermination of wind significance.  Helluva challenge... and the stakes are higher because this echelon of wind gusts numbers that we are being sold are definitely way richer than merely passing muses and drama. A 65 mph wind gust is ... actually kinda scary to be blunt. That walls over even well-built homes may 'tick' and/or creek, while lesser fortunate edifices ...they may actually kite away pieces of their roofs.  Much of which happening after the power failure has rendered one's living room very dark, such that the wind is the only voice left to fill the silence, too.  I mean ...that's not trivial by any sense of fairness.  Particularly, the Euro?  e-gads. That's inside of day four, when and where that particular guidance species proves why all models really are not created equally.

Don't know about the Euro's handling of wind in general tho -

Still, I swear I've been to this rodeo before with the wind histrionics.  I suppose I'm on the fence with this... I am very cautiously in favor of bigger numbers being verified, while not being shocked if someway some how things end up very windy but more manageable.   

Yeah thought about that too.  Not the easiest to nail details down, other than most will see at least 40-50mph. Obviously some may do much better.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tippy and Ginxy love their tree top jet engines.

While the leaves are lazily rolling across the driveway at 15-20mph but it's ripping hard just above trees with scud moving at highway speeds.

Thats why winter winds are usually the most impressive...no foliage and just full tilt winds moving through the forest floor.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, powderfreak said:

While the leaves are lazily rolling across the driveway at 15-20mph but it's ripping hard just above trees with scud moving at highway speeds.

Thats why winter winds are usually the most impressive...no foliage and just full tilt winds moving through the forest floor.  

Except I curse it when measuring snow.  It just blows and drifts at my house. Very rarely do I have a nice situation where I can walk out and measure a few times and call it.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah thought about that too.  Not the easiest to nail details down, other than most will see at least 40-50mph. Obviously some may do much better.

Yep. I still have October 2006 in my mind. It was really strong LLJ not too dissimilar to tonight and it was basically a big bust. Tonight's is a bit more impressive and maybe we can get some more comvective elements. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin might do better. He's gonna be close to the LLJ sling back and gets good exposure.

NNE folks love to twist the knife in SNE. We just move onwards and upwards . Never a congrats or nice forecast .. just squirrels lucky finding a nut. Quick to take potshots .

Whereas we always hope those guys do well .

 

Good luck NNE!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NNE folks love to twist the knife in SNE. We just move onwards and upwards . Never a congrats or nice forecast .. just squirrels lucky finding a nut. Quick to take potshots .

Whereas we always hope those guys do well .

 

Good luck NNE!

Chickens blown into the Winnipesaukee river at Brian's?

 

Cstl ME will rock.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah thought about that too.  Not the easiest to nail details down, other than most will see at least 40-50mph. Obviously some may do much better.

Exactly .. and, I certainly am not gong to fault anyone for going bigger - there's enough indicators here.  I mean, if one went less, and so much as a barn tumbled across a corn field their going to take one on the chin.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. I still have October 2006 in my mind. It was really strong LLJ not too dissimilar to tonight and it was basically a big bust. Tonight's is a bit more impressive and maybe we can get some more comvective elements. 

Here's what's liable to happen ...

Five reports of Warning criteria, embedded in a huge ledger of Advisory verification level winds... and then we'll field posts for the next three years talking about the big wind debacle of Oct 30 2017...   

Just the sort of public reactionary pall that makes weather-related social media a really enjoyable and at times useful pass-time -

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can picture Dendrite waking up to roofless chicken shacks and eggs splattered all over his house like an egging at Helloween 

:lol:

Luckily the coop will be downwind of the house tonight. My eggs will be splattered in Franklin against some opiate den.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NNE folks love to twist the knife in SNE. We just move onwards and upwards . Never a congrats or nice forecast .. just squirrels lucky finding a nut. Quick to take potshots .

Whereas we always hope those guys do well .

 

Good luck NNE!

lol 

"this is more of a SNE event" when the winds in Maine were brought up yesterday.

Let's just say many have been around to see you very excited for big wind events and you do often lose your roof, you are right.  Not sure why anyone would doubt your thoughts.

You've fixed your roof what, 10-15 times since 2000?

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NNE folks love to twist the knife in SNE. We just move onwards and upwards . Never a congrats or nice forecast .. just squirrels lucky finding a nut. Quick to take potshots .

Whereas we always hope those guys do well .

 

Good luck NNE!

I for one wish you a merry and exciting storm and hope you get all the wind you want.  You can keep it as I have far too many trees near my house to let me enjoy a windstorm without constant worry.

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