40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not expecting 100mph plus winds here Ray, I was just pointing out that the NAM got stronger at 850mb, and they are attached to the post tropical low of Philippe when he arrives over our area tomorrow night into Monday morning Well, you said "a hurricane is coming".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you said "a hurricane is coming".. ok, I was joking, I wasn't being literal, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 James, you stated you’re getting a hurricane landfall. Not happening, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I meant to say hurricane force winds are coming, not sustained and in gusts for a three hour period in SE MA and RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: James, you stated you’re getting a hurricane landfall. Not happening, carry on. sorry I was a little hyped, a little late for a coffee drink, but I am excited to hear the jet engine roaring as the 100 knot low level jet arrives over our heads tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Meh... we’ll gust to 40-45 here. I’m willing to bet anything over that is overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 NAM really carries a 120mph winds at 5000 feet for a three hour period starting at 2am Monday through 5am Monday, its on the Tropicaltidbits site for the NAM run 32km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Newest wind probability maps from the NHC for Philippe show 60% chance for tropical storm force winds on the Cape and Islands and a 10-20% chance at 50 knot winds sustained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Meh... we’ll gust to 40-45 here. I’m willing to bet anything over that is overdone Prob a bit more than that imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Newest wind probability maps from the NHC for Philippe show 60% chance for tropical storm force winds on the Cape and Islands and a 10-20% chance at 50 knot winds sustained Sounds reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I like the NWS PC for my area.....max gust 48mph. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 NAM has 50-55kt for BOS at 975mb. 55-60kt there for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Newest satellite and water vapor imagery of the eastern United States Seaboard shows several factors heading into tomorrow night's monster of a storm center and impacts for Southern New England. First a large vort max and associated upper level low is moving into the VA region which will allow a coastal low to develop and intensify as it moves closer to the coastline of NC. Another short wave and vort max is rotating through the base of the large upper level trough over the OH Valley through the mid MS Valley and moving northeastward towards the NC and SC coastlines. Once this disturbance reaches this region of the Eastern Seaboard the coastal storm will under go bombogenesis as an extra tropical cyclone, not a nor'easter because the wind direction will be out of the south or more so out of the southeast over SNE. This will develop a potent to violent low level jet stream at 5000 feet above the surface of the ocean and depending upon how warm it can get into eastern SNE and eastern ME we could see some of these potent to violent winds reach the surface over eastern SNE and Eastern ME. We also have to contend with a tropical cyclone which is currently just southwest of Naples, Florida moving northeastward at around 24mph. It is this system the latest model runs have hitting Cape and ACK as a tropical storm absorbed into a hybrid beast of an extratropical storm. Widespread 30-40mph winds inland and 50-65mph winds widespread over eastern and coastal SNE with gusts possibly reaching hurricane force. Again I will have another update as the storm matures tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 It must be dawn because James has awoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I love these type of evolutions for monster storms that greatly impact our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It must be dawn because James has awoken. One weenie went limp at 6:00 pm, And another weenie rose at 7:00 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 18 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: sorry I was a little hyped, a little late for a coffee drink, but I am excited to hear the jet engine roaring as the 100 knot low level jet arrives over our heads tomorrow night It should be fun out there. Will you go out on a beach to experience it? I always thought a beach on the Cape would be fun for a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, klw said: It should be fun out there. Will you go out on a beach to experience it? I always thought a beach on the Cape would be fun for a blizzard. I have never experienced anything over 80mph, and those carried with it blizzard conditions, like when I went plowing with my dad. I wouldn't venture to the beach with just experiencing winds unless I had a sturdy building to go in once the winds got too bad. The beach is fun during a blizzard where no trees have an impact to your head, but for the most part I stay indoors for wind events. I never got to experience the winds over Cape Cod and my home during the great TROP FOLD event of December 9th 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 0z gfs with a much better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Less rain for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Less rain for all. Still lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Well just arriving on shift and it's still the 28th, this is my general feeling: (I know, I know, it was the start of deer season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Seems like E LI, SE MA, Cape, Islands, Cape Ann are all favored to see the big winds. I don't have wxbell anymore, but I found that weather.us site. I wouldn't get excited in the far interior. Coastal plain east of 495 will see impressive stuff for a few hours. Cape Ann shouldn't sleep on this, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Annnnd major model fails at all NWS offices. We're not getting any of the new data into our systems (GFS, HRRR, RAP, etc). But we got the 00z NAM and CMC-reg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Annnnd major model fails at all NWS offices. We're not getting any of the new data into our systems (GFS, HRRR, RAP, etc). But we got the 00z NAM and CMC-reg.Working the nightshift? Heading back from LAX. Looks like fun times next couple days. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Working the nightshift? Heading back from LAX. Looks like fun times next couple days. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk 700' in Raymond should be pretty breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Here's a weenie wind gust map from the Euro. Lol @ hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 700' in Raymond should be pretty breezy.I don't like seeing our window panes flex especially when the winds are out of the South. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 @CoastalWx Good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Somebody will get confirmed hurricane gusts but I'm skeptical of the wind progs. I going with an under of 45mph on MPM Davis which is usually linked up on wunderground. Yeah, i'll get gas for the generator in the morning but that's just cuz I'm like that. That's always the safe bet--anything over 35 on it is a win. Also, the high will likely be tomorrow afternoon. Seeing 22 pages in this thread speaks volumes of how little people get excited by wind. A couple weeks from now, the prospect of 6" of snow will garner more board activity than this storm. That said, I'm looking forward to some good gusts even if they will pale compared to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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