qg_omega Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Do we know if this chart is accurately depicting the ECMWF’s Philippe’s track or is it honing in on the baroclinic low forming north of EYW? well that is the issue on the head with the Euro in my opinion, it never develops Philippe and the northern low basically absorbs it well south of our latitude while most other models keep it a separate and distinct feature. Hence the euro shows hurricane winds into NYC while every other forecast model does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: GYX is playing conservative at Pit2 Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 55. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Should of went 70 mph right out of the gate and adjust up if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: well that is the issue on the head with the Euro in my opinion, it never develops Philippe and the northern low basically absorbs it well south of our latitude while most other models keep it a separate and distinct feature. Hence the euro shows hurricane winds into NYC while every other forecast model does not. Well the NAM as a 110 knot jet at 850 over BDR so it’s not exactly that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Well the NAM as a 110 knot jet at 850 over BDR so it’s not exactly that far off. world of difference if that low is over central NJ vs south of eastern LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I know: weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: High Wind Watches out from BTV. Watch the downslope areas of NNE for big winds. GYX and BTV thinking highest winds are W/NW slopes. Air comes over the crests and accelerates down into towns on the lee side. Look at NH...highest wind forecast all along the NW side of the Whites. He luvs twisting the knife in NNE any chance he gets, To bad he is to far inland to get anything of any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 29, 2017 Author Share Posted October 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: world of difference if that low is over central NJ vs south of eastern LI: For NYC. Also 48 of 51 EPS members are inland over NJ so the op isn’t really an outlier in its own ensemble system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: For NYC. Also 48 of 51 EPS members are inland over NJ so the op isn’t really an outlier in its own ensemble system. forecast is def easier for SNE they look to get it good for a few hrs and everyone should gust to 50-55 mph in the CAA behind the storm. How strong the southerly winds are around NYC and western LI are still up in the air. Euro is scary, GFS is no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Should of went 70 mph right out of the gate and adjust up if need be. Off topic but how did the hunt go? ran across this fella today hunkering down for the fakephoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, kdxken said: Off topic but how did the hunt go? ran across this fella today hunkering down for the fakephoon. Nice buck! I shot an 8 pointer at 2:44 pm this afternoon so my season is over............... I won't post the pics as some may not like those dressed pics........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: He luvs twisting the knife in NNE any chance he gets, To bad he is to far inland to get anything of any significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I wasn't told to stop....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: I wasn't told to stop....lol If you looked at a model you’d see all of SNE is in line for big Rips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you looked at a model you’d see all of SNE is in line for big Rips Instead of sitting behind the computer all day i spent mine in the woods, I don't get wood for wind because it typically under performs,Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, qg_omega said: forecast is def easier for SNE they look to get it good for a few hrs and everyone should gust to 50-55 mph in the CAA behind the storm. How strong the southerly winds are around NYC and western LI are still up in the air. Euro is scary, GFS is no big deal. Gfs is wrong Gefs is close to NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is wrong Gefs is close to NJ It’s only right when it shows....”blocking”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: Should of went 70 mph right out of the gate and adjust up if need be. I'm taking the over on the 35mph gust on my P&C. I seem to have a pretty poor record as a forecaster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: Instead of sitting behind the computer all day i spent mine in the woods, I don't get wood for wind because it typically under performs,Thanks 3 soccer games an 8 mile run at 4:45 am and then leaf cleanup from 2-5. Congrats on wearing antlers in a tree stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 I need to see more data before going more than 50 mph in this pit of an area . There's a reason why we are still under a watch and not a warning across the interior. I need to see some more data before going 60 mph in the CTRV this far north. Certainly some interesting potential but just how much interaction/phasing between Phillipe occurs and where makes a big difference. Perhaps the wind field is a bit fractured with a max to the west with the coastal low and a second max to the East with Phillipe. Definitely interesting potential and the Euro is especially impressive but still some time here to iron things out before going full blown weenie. I am excited about the potential but trying to stay level headed as well as we seem to underperform in 99 out of 100 high wind events in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3 soccer games an 8 mile run at 4:45 am and then leaf cleanup from 2-5. Congrats on wearing antlers in a tree stand You play soccer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Going to be a great short term shift tonight. A few warning decisions to be made. I don’t see much that has backed off today. Despite what Kevin may think about coastal NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3 soccer games an 8 mile run at 4:45 am and then leaf cleanup from 2-5. Congrats on wearing antlers in a tree stand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 28 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Going to be a great short term shift tonight. A few warning decisions to be made. I don’t see much that has backed off today. Despite what Kevin may think about coastal NNE. What's the over/under for Black Cat island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s very likely you’re out and possibly an extended period Again doubt it, didn't lose power here in October 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Nam trains over nj nyc and a secondary qpf max over ema. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you looked at a model you’d see all of SNE is in line for big Rips Big rips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: What's the over/under for Black Cat island? They should rip on the CAA over the warm lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Big winds are a coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Of course 3k version is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Big rips. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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