40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, Hoth said: Wow, some sub 960 members in there. Lots of sub 970s. Very impressive. And Ray, that "additive momentum" comment was tongue in cheek, although I realize that doesn't come across well in text. I honestly was speaking in general terms. Not about you, or anyone in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks like it sort of hugs the coast - doesn't get too far inland from what I can see. Yeah the regular OP nam is pretty meh for anyone more than 10 miles off the coast. But that 3km is kind of insane....the 3km would be our worst wind event in ages. But for now I'm kind of treating it like those 3km nam runs in winter that give 55" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They are too far north and east. This is more a SNE deal EC says otherwise. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maine/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the regular OP nam is pretty meh for anyone more than 10 miles off the coast. But that 3km is kind of insane....the 3km would be our worst wind event in ages. But for now I'm kind of treating it like those 3km nam runs in winter that give 55" of snow. It's funny because the 3km NAM is only about 980ish and east of where the ECMWF and most of its ensembles are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 32 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Ryan are you thinking of upping your wind forecast at all? Well, if you are on tonight that is...I had WRCH on at work today and they weren't even mentioning tomorrow night in the forecast. Just talked about rain developing with some wind tomorrow and a windy day on Monday but no mention of the potential for 60+ mph winds. Bump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the regular OP nam is pretty meh for anyone more than 10 miles off the coast. But that 3km is kind of insane....the 3km would be our worst wind event in ages. But for now I'm kind of treating it like those 3km nam runs in winter that give 55" of snow. To be honest the 850mb wind speeds on the 3km NAM aren't that dissimilar to the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Well we now have Tropical Storm Philippe. Very complex situation, this is really a hybrid system like Sandy was. When all is said and done I wonder if the NWS should basically issue a tropical storm watch for much of New England? Although technically this storm is a baroclinic low with the merger of Philippe the net result will be more of Tropical Storm type damage than anything else. This situation warrants a TS type warning much more than say a Jose storm weakening SE of New England. Almost like the new Hurricane Force Wind Warnings. Maybe it can't be done because technically Philippe's old LL center will stay well east but sometimes common sense for the public should prevail.... I don't see the purpose of that.....the impact is that its' going to be windy. The headline is irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Wow TS Philippe has developed and the hybrid low has developed west of Fort Myers, FL, there is a really distinct low level swirl in this location. I think someone will see 100 knot gusts from this along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They are too far north and east. This is more a SNE deal High Wind Watches out from BTV. Watch the downslope areas of NNE for big winds. GYX and BTV thinking highest winds are W/NW slopes. Air comes over the crests and accelerates down into towns on the lee side. Look at NH...highest wind forecast all along the NW side of the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Wow TS Philippe has developed and the hybrid low has developed west of Fort Myers, FL, there is a really distinct low level swirl in this location. I think someone will see 100 knot gusts from this along the coastline. Already cruising north at near 30mph! Also, 100 knots sounds a sig stretch. Maybe on Mt. Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 If you want to weenie-out on storm-relative helicity, go check a GFS sounding near Acadia National Park at 45hr (near the 978mb low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Hoth, yeah he is moving rapidly. Most models have gone from Southeast of ACK to above in line with mid Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 i wish i could get sounding data from a model that looks like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 The RGEM brings Phillipe or something of that nature over the Cape now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Some wind gust graphics or wind graphics at 925mb to the surface have highest gusts up to 111 knots over the water south of LI and RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: The RGEM brings Phillipe or something of that nature over the Cape now. would that bring the winds to the surface Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 TS Philippe is combining with the extra tropical low now west of South Florida, I think this will be one giant storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: TS Philippe is combining with the extra tropical low now west of South Florida, I think this will be one giant storm Jack in the beanstalkesque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 At least imby there are more leaves on the trees now than Oct 29 2011. You wi see if this will rival that for number of outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: At least imby there are more leaves on the trees now than Oct 29 2011. You wi see if this will rival that for number of outages Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 GFS says no, another huge match up against the Euro. I'm inclined to go with the GFS due to the over amped and westward bias of the Euro...see Irma, Nemo, Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS says no, another huge match up against the Euro. I'm inclined to go with the GFS due to the over amped and westward bias of the Euro...see Irma, Nemo, Juno Dude - now you are trolling this thread too!!! Seriously??!?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS says no, another huge match up against the Euro. I'm inclined to go with the GFS due to the over amped and westward bias of the Euro...see Irma, Nemo, Juno I'm pretty sure GFS was absolutely atrocious with Nemo. In fact, it was showing a scraper hours out from the event. Also GFS was teasing NYC with Irma when Euro was locked into Miami. No comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, cut said: Dude - now you are trolling this thread too!!! Seriously??!?!?! I get told to stop when there’s the very real chance this rivals 2011.. and he’s allowed to continue trolling the Gfs stuff. He’s been doing it for days in NYC thread and no mods do anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I get told to stop when there’s the very real chance this rivals 2011.. and he’s allowed to continue trolling the Gfs stuff. He’s been doing it for days in NYC thread and no mods do anything I thInk stop because what happened power and tree wise in 2011 was entirely snow related. Wind is not solid material-or another way of putting it is not the crystallized form of any matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS says no, another huge match up against the Euro. I'm inclined to go with the GFS due to the over amped and westward bias of the Euro...see Irma, Nemo, Juno Stop trolling It's annoying We know the gfs is wrong. Gefs at 12z was tucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 That is sick for all of SNE. Wow Enjoy your power outagesSent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 the gfs looked more impressive than the 12z run at 250 mb until the convective weirdness started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Seems to be a lot of convective feedback issues. Not sure any model solution will pan out exactly as portrayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said: Seems to be a lot of convective feedback issues. Not sure any model solution will pan out exactly as portrayed. True story. Fun now casting, wish it wasn't happening in the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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