Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS 10m winds...it is crazy how fast it lifts through! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017102812/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_7.png Additive forward speed ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: parts or most of CT will dryslot, looks that way at h7. I would not forecast more than a quick 1-2” with isolated higher amounts obv. Highest winds look to be out east with the LLJ. Not saying this is meh for everyone but here, it doesnt look that anomalous. I agree. I Don't think it will be very memorable in the end, but we'll see. I guess it's impressive given its still so early, but...couldn't care less overall. This is not 1/10 the anomaly that 10/2011 or Sandy were...perfect storm, etc. Sorry to have offended anyone- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z GFS 10m winds...it is crazy how fast it lifts through! Dead calm over Mt Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree. I Don't think it will be very memorable in the end, but we'll see. I guess it's impressive given its still so early, but...couldn't care less overall. Sorry to have offended anyone- This. It is not your job to NOT offend anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Euro almost looks more impressive SE CT-ern MA then 00z...but only first glimpse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro almost looks more impressive SE CT-ern MA then 00z...but only first glimpse. I don't think there is a widespread strong to damaging wind gust threat across the state during the system. I think the higher likelihood will certainly be along the coast into SE CT. Monday, however, looks much more impressive with the winds on the backside, especially with pretty steep low-level lapse rates. What I am most impressed with the most is how the NAM/GFS/Euro all have a 70-80+ knot LLJ at 925mb...that's ridiculous. That is not something you see very often. Wherever the heaviest rain sets up there will certainly be some 5-6'' totals somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: I don't think there is a widespread strong to damaging wind gust threat across the state during the system. I think the higher likelihood will certainly be along the coast into SE CT. Monday, however, looks much more impressive with the winds on the backside, especially with pretty steep low-level lapse rates. What I am most impressed with the most is how the NAM/GFS/Euro all have a 70-80+ knot LLJ at 925mb...that's ridiculous. That is not something you see very often. Wherever the heaviest rain sets up there will certainly be some 5-6'' totals somewhere Yeah the back side might be best for parts of CT. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah the back side might be best for parts of CT. Tough call. I'm going with that as a given in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 The Euro sfc gusts are lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah the back side might be best for parts of CT. Tough call. yeah it really is. Bufkit soundings do show some pretty strong mixing. I also agree with some above posts about the heaviest rain perhaps being a bit overstated. We could certainly dry slot here. I also think we will see a really thin convective line given the strength of the forcing and sometimes those get aided by the dry slot. something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, weatherwiz said: yeah it really is. Bufkit soundings do show some pretty strong mixing. I also agree with some above posts about the heaviest rain perhaps being a bit overstated. We could certainly dry slot here. I also think we will see a really thin convective line given the strength of the forcing and sometimes those get aided by the dry slot. something to watch I feel like CT may get soaked...at least a chunk of it. Someone from maybe RI/ern CT into NY state is getting 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I feel like CT may get soaked...at least a chunk of it. Someone from maybe RI/ern CT into NY state is getting 5-6". I feel like that we will get a ton of rain in a short amount of time then perhaps a dry slot moves in? Sort of like a front end thump with snow. I can definitely see someone getting 5-6'' just a matter of where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The Euro sfc gusts are lol Yeah that's unhinged. Lop off 20-30 and it's still a big blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I've even seen a jack near the Cape too. There are so many mesos lows with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I've even seen a jack near the Cape too. There are so many mesos lows with this. That is very plausible. Models do show like two low centers at 925/850 and that's where you have the 70+ knot LLJ streaming in moisture off the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 No kidding Ryan. Might be windiest run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 lol it has like 65 knots over western CT for 10m wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Almost like a downslope component. Wonder if the valley can get that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No kidding Ryan. Might be windiest run yet. It's weird since it doesn't have a nasty LLJ that I can see. Maybe it's the 6hr temporal resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: It's weird since it doesn't have a nasty LLJ that I can see. Maybe it's the 6hr temporal resolution? Pretty nasty at 925. It's out on weather.us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty nasty at 925. It's out on weather.us. over western CT? Looked pretty damn impressive out over the Cape but it doesn't look like it very impressive over western CT at the time it shows the insane gusts here. Looks like 50 knots across extreme coast then much less inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Lol core gets up to 24C per the other forum. That's just wild. Would imply significant convection. Perhaps Euro is mixing wind down with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: over western CT? Looked pretty damn impressive out over the Cape but it doesn't look like it very impressive over western CT at the time it shows the insane gusts here. Looks like 50 knots across extreme coast then much less inland. 70-75kt at 925 for E MA/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty nasty at 925. It's out on weather.us. Oh yeah... 75-85 knots at 925. It's at 3z so I sort of missed that on the weatherbell 6-hour naps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 70-75kt at 925 for E MA/NH/ME. that's where all the good winds will probably be but we'll have fun here on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Pit 2 might blow into the Kennebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I feel for the NFL kickers tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 May be an obvious point to most but for the big wind producers I've always noticed the wind start to pick up and become breezy 24 hrs or so before worst impacts. So if this one means business we should start to see winds gradually increasing tonight into tomorrow. If early tomorrow am is gusty the along the coast this one should be a doozy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Most of us will not have power Mon morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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