Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thankfully, we will be in bed. This is going to be one we all remember for a long long time. I’ll be up all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't say scary. It may be just a very strong storm with only some tree damage if everything does not come together right. But someone is going to get a good wind event for sure. I guess the anomalous nature of this event is intriguing on a number of levels, but as someone who lives in a area that is prone to high winds from events like these, I'm rooting for the least impactful wind outcome. I'm all set for 50ft pines falling near/on my house or losing power for an extended period of time which seems possible with this event here. But like Tip said, its really like a drug induced high seeking the most extreme outcomes--same with Canes, Tors, Severe, etc. Its the nature of the weather weenie, so i get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is going to be one we all remember for a long long time. I’ll be up all night Get the livestock indoors and tune up the generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 12Z GFS is on drugs. Brings 93L up as a 963mb low near the benchmark tomorrow night. Then on the next panel its totally gone, puff and everything is centered around the primary 968mb low to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 GFS is quite the storm in SE CT through Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 12Z GFS is on drugs. Brings 93L up as a 963mb low near the benchmark tomorrow night. Then on the next panel its totally gone, puff and everything is centered around the primary 968mb low to the NW. Gene, I don’t see that. On my service it’s a wound up low rolling up the HRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Could Mar '10 be a rough analog for this wind wise? Obviously different with leafed out trees and warm seclusion, but in terms of impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 12Z GFS is on drugs. Brings 93L up as a 963mb low near the benchmark tomorrow night. Then on the next panel its totally gone, puff and everything is centered around the primary 968mb low to the NW. So why can't that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: 12Z GFS is on drugs. Brings 93L up as a 963mb low near the benchmark tomorrow night. Then on the next panel its totally gone, puff and everything is centered around the primary 968mb low to the NW. Deep deep lows; really impressive at this time of year. Probably near record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 There is a bit of an inversion so it's possible strongest winds don't get mixed down. Also, with that tropical so close...it may not fully realize the potential. IOW, lots of 40-55mph stuff, but not the 60+, unless that gets involved more. BUFKIT actually giving strongest gusts Monday during CAA. I thought the GFS was a bit stronger on the coast. It literally is only 1-3 hrs of the strongest winds. It's flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On the other hand, such a strong LLJ, rapidly intensifying low, and possibly convective elements at play can help bring it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: On the other hand, such a strong LLJ, rapidly intensifying low, and possibly convective elements at play can help bring it down. Why is that tropical storm not going to get sheared apart? I think gfs TC over intensification is on display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Why is that tropical storm not going to get sheared apart? I think gfs TC over intensification is on display. Yeah it seems odd. Although I have seen it in other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: On the other hand, such a strong LLJ, rapidly intensifying low, and possibly convective elements at play can help bring it down. Ho man ... so many moving parts to consider - and the one you don't, that's the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah it seems odd. Although I have seen it in other models. I can see the somewhat strung out nature of the winds via that trough to the southeast and convection but not the closed strong TC specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Yeah, the handling of the tropical entity is the wild card ...still, even this close to the totality of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Go to bed Sun night and it’s off delmarva. Wake up Monday and it’s already past Canadian customs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Go to bed Sun night and it’s off delmarva. Wake up Monday and it’s already past Canadian customs. Zoom zoom. Looks this event will be very now-castish on the exact location of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Believe it or not ... this really isn't a terrible Sandy analog ...just far less than ideally so - You have a deep trough and a tropical entity sort of getting caught up in it - that alone speaks volumes. But what specifically happens may obviously not be anything like Sandy. That's the less than ideal comparison aspect. NAO's different too - The NAM appears to try and 'hook' the remnant tropical entity into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 NAM and GFS agree on 80 knot wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 parts or most of CT will dryslot, looks that way at h7. I would not forecast more than a quick 1-2” with isolated higher amounts obv. Highest winds look to be out east with the LLJ. Not saying this is meh for everyone but here, it doesnt look that anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: parts or most of CT will dryslot, looks that way at h7. I would not forecast more than a quick 1-2” with isolated higher amounts obv. Highest winds look to be out east with the LLJ. Not saying this is meh for everyone but here, it doesnt look that anomalous. Watch for some training bands of heavy rain during the day prior to the big slug. Some of the high res stuff is showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Watch for some training bands of heavy rain during the day prior to the big slug. Some of the high res stuff is showing that. rgem shows it a bit too. 3-4” for the western half of the state. What is your take on the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 30 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM and GFS agree on 80 knot wind gusts At the surface? Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: At the surface? Where? Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Harwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, backedgeapproaching said: I guess the anomalous nature of this event is intriguing on a number of levels, but as someone who lives in a area that is prone to high winds from events like these, I'm rooting for the least impactful wind outcome. I'm all set for 50ft pines falling near/on my house or losing power for an extended period of time which seems possible with this event here. But like Tip said, its really like a drug induced high seeking the most extreme outcomes--same with Canes, Tors, Severe, etc. Its the nature of the weather weenie, so i get it. I still think you may be one of the windiest spots in your SE downslope zone. You guys get 60mph gusts out of run of the mill winter events with that wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: So why can't that happen? TT, What I found strange with the 12Z GFS and the 963mb tropical feature is that at 6Z Monday AM its 963mb around the BM. Then 6 hours later no trace. Even if it got absorbed into the main low coming up the HV the isobars are smooth to the east of New England. Wouldn't there be some semblance of a weakness as a 963mb low gets yanked NW? The next panel is like what tropical low? Maybe this is so dynamic that pressure can fill in and smooth so rapidly. Also if the tropical low was down to 963mb wouldn't that energy really deepen the primary on the next panel? These are probably questions I could answer myself if I didn't wimp out and decide not to become a Met! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Was checking out the reanalysis for Nov 50. That brought many sites 80-100mph+ gusts including a measured 110mph at CON. That ripped an 80-90kt H85 jet right back to ART-MSS. The NAM is bringing the 80-85kt @ H85 back to about CON/LCI. H95 winds get up to about 30-40kt and by daybreak Monday that level is almost near the sfc across the foothills. Now that is anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 12z GFS 10m winds...it is crazy how fast it lifts through! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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