Sunday's Screaming Southeaster

[CoastalWx]

Some models/mesos still keeping the tropical low separate. Hopefully those models shift west.

[mitchnick]

Looks like peak period for wind gusts for you guys.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html

[qg_omega]

32 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Everyone's talking winds, but this has the looks of widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding...

Tides and speed argue against a big coastal flood threat

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some models/mesos still keeping the tropical low separate. Hopefully those models shift west.

Think it has a better chance getting absorbed if it remains weak and so far it's not showing much signs of organizing

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Tides and speed argue against a big coastal flood threat

Yea as coastalwx said, looks like a ME concern for our subformum.

Also the euro track verbatim, perpendicular to the coast could cause coastal flooding in central/southern NJ.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Is this just anecdotal? I'm not sure we've had a bunch of 50-60 knot S/SE winds in the early 90s. 

Have you met DIT?

[bobbutts]

At least some members in the Euro Ensemble shows some crazy strong gusts here.. Not sure why hits my area so hard.

GYX seems more realistic, maybe a bit low.

Quote

Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 hours ago, Hoth said:

They've had some pretty epic head scratchers in recent years.

Yea, the list has gotten long.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thankfully, we will be in bed. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah low tide and super low astro tide. Probably won't be too bad most places though some south coast splashover is a decent bet. 

stay safe.

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thankfully, we will be in bed. 

Finally could get his damaging southeaster and may sleep right through it.

[Typhoon Tip]

Scott made me chuckle... "...keep the tropical ... separate ... hopefully ... shift ... west"  - like, really -  'cause 60 mph routine wind gusts across the area in a freak coastal bombogensis event isn't enough excitement cocaine as it is .. ?   wah-how man -

I really sometimes get the impression that if a dooms day comet were in fact mere hours from impacting out in the Atlantic Ocean, ...the majority stat of these weather-related social media outlets would congregate at the littorals with pop-corn and soda while the rest of civility fleas to western North America.

Seriously though ... I think the excitement thing we seek really must be a drug... What's the difference?  "People get a charge out of" " : that charge is an altering brain chemistry where endorphin complexes flood in and create senses of elation - fascinating... Without those weather-related channels echoing the next threat, the "user" gets depressed? That's quite similar to an attic in withdraw shakes and ague - 

I used to suffer that ...particularly in my teenage years.  I think I'm lucky though ... I suffered during the 1980s, which, sorry - you whipper snappers have no f'ing clue how good you've had it.  "Millennials" ... anyone too young to have been cognizantly aware in the 1980s that may now be in here lurking and engaging in the collective sickness, you haven't benefited from that maturation of scarcity.  So now ... you've made it to adult years with a kind of faux impression of the world. 

Hell... you may be right though.  Maybe the world is a drama rich realm of hyper stimulus, and the 1980s were just unfair.  Either way, I don't care so much if I miss an event anymore, and I credit those years of scarcity for teaching me to be aroused by less.  Probably why I don't have a gf - ahhaha

anyway,  the trop. fold stuff ...yeah I mentioned that a few days ago.  I would argue that anytime a negative tilter turns the corner with heights falling in the core the troposphere is trying to do cartwheels.  Perfect example is December 2005...  If we want to dig in, Gravity Waves ?  sure - why not... 110 kt 500mb jet fist uppercut 1 deg lat/lon E of Logan ...how about g-wave wind pulsing followed by the Fold evacuation -  ...code for Power outage!

 

[jbenedet]

So I'm going to piss a bunch of people off in here by saying this storm will be affecting us on the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Sandy.

[CoastalWx]

Jesus 3KM NAM around here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Can pretty much count the rain as mundane or just another fall rain event for most areas, 1-3” isnt a big deal. Need to just focus mostly on the winds now, advisory or warning levels. 

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Can pretty much count the rain as mundane or just another fall rain event for most areas, 1-3” isnt a big deal. Need to just focus mostly on the winds now, advisory or warning levels. 

The rain is only interesting inasmuch as the ground is already soft from our Weds/Thurs event. Another 1-3" would amplify risk of uprooting if siggy wind should verify.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Can pretty much count the rain as mundane or just another fall rain event for most areas, 1-3” isnt a big deal. Need to just focus mostly on the winds now, advisory or warning levels. 

I have a feeling someone will get 5-6" or maybe more in a narrow area.

[CoastalWx]

57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Scott made me chuckle... "...keep the tropical ... separate ... hopefully ... shift ... west"  - like, really -  'cause 60 mph routine wind gusts across the area in a freak coastal bombogensis event isn't enough excitement cocaine as it is .. ?   wah-how man -

I really sometimes get the impression that if a dooms day comet were in fact mere hours from impacting out in the Atlantic Ocean, ...the majority stat of these weather-related social media outlets would congregate at the littorals with pop-corn and soda while the rest of civility fleas to western North America.

Seriously though ... I think the excitement thing we seek really must be a drug... What's the difference?  "People get a charge out of" " : that charge is an altering brain chemistry where endorphin complexes flood in and create senses of elation - fascinating... Without those weather-related channels echoing the next threat, the "user" gets depressed? That's quite similar to an attic in withdraw shakes and ague - 

I used to suffer that ...particularly in my teenage years.  I think I'm lucky though ... I suffered during the 1980s, which, sorry - you whipper snappers have no f'ing clue how good you've had it.  "Millennials" ... anyone too young to have been cognizantly aware in the 1980s that may now be in here lurking and engaging in the collective sickness, you haven't benefited from that maturation of scarcity.  So now ... you've made it to adult years with a kind of faux impression of the world. 

Hell... you may be right though.  Maybe the world is a drama rich realm of hyper stimulus, and the 1980s were just unfair.  Either way, I don't care so much if I miss an event anymore, and I credit those years of scarcity for teaching me to be aroused by less.  Probably why I don't have a gf - ahhaha

anyway,  the trop. fold stuff ...yeah I mentioned that a few days ago.  I would argue that anytime a negative tilter turns the corner with heights falling in the core the troposphere is trying to do cartwheels.  Perfect example is December 2005...  If we want to dig in, Gravity Waves ?  sure - why not... 110 kt 500mb jet fist uppercut 1 deg lat/lon E of Logan ...how about g-wave wind pulsing followed by the Fold evacuation -  ...code for Power outage!

 

I love anomalous events. That's why I will never understand Kevin's logic of being happy with constant 1-3" events all winter. If I had a 30" wind whipped blizzard and not much after..I would be ok. It would be disappointing..but I love the thrill and adrenaline of anomalous events. That's just me. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Can pretty much count the rain as mundane or just another fall rain event for most areas, 1-3” isnt a big deal. Need to just focus mostly on the winds now, advisory or warning levels. 

Lots of outlets now saying 2-4,inches is a good bet for western areas of CT abd Mass.  if the high end of that verifies, that's a good slug of rain on top of the 4 plus inches Tuesday and Wednesday.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love anomalous events. That's why I will never understand Kevin's logic of being happy with constant 1-3" events all winter. If I had a 30" wind whipped blizzard and not much after..I would be ok. It would be disappointing..but I love the thrill and adrenaline of anomalous events. That's just me. 

I'm with you 100% on that!!

[Typhoon Tip]

nice... I like using the FOUS (FRH) grid numbers ...I'm old school in that way.

The wind numbers (I think) are 980 mb level?  Not sure entirely; the decode says bottom 35 mb of the atmosphere, where is open to interpretation and is stupidly defined that way. Anyway, they arrived at 46 kts at Logan on this run.  The strongest I have seen so far in the run up to this ordeal.  Granted, those are not likely to penetrate that far inland before the typical BL physics wall that off.. still, that's big-time gust potential one would think. And as others have noted... convective overturning could spike a gust or two, regardless... That's almost worse in some respects, because you get that whiplashing -

This is a weirdly unique event.  We really don't even need the tropical enhancing for this...  I was thinking about this, this morning, how ...  in just about any winter storm/coastal bombing type low you have these intense jet mechanics riding aloft.  The difference here is that we have those vectors, but...we have a warm-ish sounding and that's sort of allowing momentum transfer to perhaps he unusually proficient.  Fascinating.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

The rain is only interesting inasmuch as the ground is already soft from our Weds/Thurs event. Another 1-3" would amplify risk of uprooting if siggy wind should verify.

True, I missed that. More rain would help lower wind speeds cause more damage than usual.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lots of outlets now saying 2-4,inches is a good bet for western areas of CT abd Mass.  if the high end of that verifies, that's a good slug of rain on top of the 4 plus inches Tuesday and Wednesday.

I got less than 1” Tue/Wed lol so no concern here. But deff out to you and Hoth, different story.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

nice... I like using the FOUS (FRH) grid numbers ...I'm old school in that way.

The wind numbers (I think) are 980 mb level?  Not sure entirely; the decode says bottom 35 mb of the atmosphere, where is open to interpretation and is stupidly defined that way. Anyway, they 46 kts at Logan on this run.  The strongest I have seen so far in the run up to this ordeal.  Granted, those are not likely to penetrate that far inland before the typical BL physics wall that off.. still, that's big-time gust potential one would think. And as others have noted... convective overturning could spike a gust or two, regardless... That's almost worse in some respects, because you get that whiplashing -

This is a weirdly unique event.  We really don't even need the tropical enhancing for this...  I was thinking about this, this morning, how ...  in just about any winter storm/coastal bombing type low you have these intense jet mechanics riding aloft.  The difference here is that we have those vectors, but...we have a warm-ish sounding and that's sort of allowing momentum transfer to perhaps he unusually proficient.  Fascinating.

Yeah I look at the FOUS for work (they are pretty handy for TAFs) and that is about as high as you will see...or I have seen.

[codfishsnowman]

I don't wish falling trees is anyone's yard or house, this forecast is starting to get downright scary.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love anomalous events. That's why I will never understand Kevin's logic of being happy with constant 1-3" events all winter. If I had a 30" wind whipped blizzard and not much after..I would be ok. It would be disappointing..but I love the thrill and adrenaline of anomalous events. That's just me. 

Bend me over and get me good...don’t bother calling me for small talk.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I don't wish falling trees is anyone's yard or house, this forecast is starting to get downright scary.

As long as you dont have an oak over hanging your crib....I always tell peoples in NE, cut any suckers down that have even the smallest potential to crush your roof.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I don't wish falling trees is anyone's yard or house, this forecast is starting to get downright scary.

Color me skeptical--I really don't expect things to be anything memorable outside of coastal areas from Block up through the mid-coast.  Outside of there, maybe a tree her or there?  Sure.  Scattered power outages?  Sure.  Widespread damage?  Not so much.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

As long as you dont have an oak over hanging your crib....I always tell peoples in NE, cut any suckers down that have even the smallest potential to crush your roof.

 

6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I don't wish falling trees is anyone's yard or house, this forecast is starting to get downright scary.

I wouldn't say scary. It may be just a very strong storm with only some tree damage if everything does not come together right.  But someone is going to get a good wind event for sure. 

[dendrite]

Was checking out the reanalysis for Nov 50. That brought many sites 80-100mph+ gusts including a measured 110mph at CON. That ripped an 80-90kt H85 jet right back to ART-MSS. The NAM is bringing the 80-85kt @ H85 back to about CON/LCI. H95 winds get up to about 30-40kt and by daybreak Monday that level is almost near the sfc across the foothills.