OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Well I think the Euro has the right idea but is prob 5-10 mph too high . I’m donning Margusity’s Big Daddy hat Those weenie gust maps are banana-land. 75-80 mph gusts on SE winds in CT would be pretty extraordinary. My guess is a good chunk of the SE BOX CWA up to Cape Ann gets a HWW later today, and interior gets an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, WinterWolf said: I don't know about what others think, but a wind advisory isn't anything to write home about..pretty mundane imo. So if this goes there...then this won't be anything to impressive for list inland peeps. But we will see how it all plays out...it'll have a few surprises for sure.. good or bad, all the decent storms do. Thanks for the insight. Well we have probably watered down wind advisories too. Gusts 46-57 and you'll take notice, but they are often issued for gusts 35-40 mph too. That certainly takes the shine off that headline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Those weenie gust maps are banana-land. 75-80 mph gusts on SE winds in CT would be pretty extraordinary. My guess is a good chunk of the SE BOX CWA up to Cape Ann gets a HWW later today, and interior gets an advisory. I’ve seen many sou’easters over the years give us gusts 65-70mph. Particularly we had several of them back in the early and mid 90’s. This just seems like an extraordinary situation and I’d bet all the BOX area goes HWW.. particularly with saturated ground and many trees still with leaves . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well we have probably watered down wind advisories too. Gusts 46-57 and you'll take notice, but they are often issued for gusts 35-40 mph too. That certainly takes the shine off that headline. Yes, gusts 46-57 and that will certainly get ones attention! but the 35-40 is run of the mill, and not impressive at all. When I think of wind advisory..I think of the 35-40mph idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, gusts 46-57 and that will certainly get ones attention! but the 35-40 is run of the mill, and not impressive at all. When I think of wind advisory..I think of the 35-40mph idea. I'm anticipating winds akin to big winter CAA situations in GC, and we have the stick-season appeal to boot. Meanwhile, this is the first time I've seen flakes in the forecast for the Tug. possible. Tuesday Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 9am. High near 46. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Rain showers likely before midnight, then rain and snow showers likely between midnight and 4am, then snow showers likely after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 10am, then a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve seen many sou’easters over the years give us gusts 65-70mph. Particularly we had several of them back in the early and mid 90’s. This just seems like an extraordinary situation and I’d bet all the BOX area goes HWW.. particularly with saturated ground and many trees still with leaves . It's telling you have to go back 20 years to dig up a SE gale like that. And I would like some Tree House when BOX doesn't go HWW everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, gusts 46-57 and that will certainly get ones attention! but the 35-40 is run of the mill, and not impressive at all. When I think of wind advisory..I think of the 35-40mph idea. That's the problem with us issuing so many sub-advisory advisories. Technically the product is for 46-57 mph gusts, or sustained 31-39 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's telling you have to go back 20 years to dig up a SE gale like that. And I would like some Tree House when BOX doesn't go HWW everywhere. Notice I said early mid 90’s. Before your time. We had them and they performed and were nothing like this extreme situation . It will depend who is on the desk at BOX. If it’s who was on yesterday we’ll be lucky to have advisories issued. If it’s others that have been around and have a clue.. it’ll be HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I'd bang this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Notice I said early mid 90’s. Before your time. We had them and they performed and were nothing like this extreme situation . It will depend who is on the desk at BOX. If it’s who was on yesterday we’ll be lucky to have advisories issued. If it’s others that have been around and have a clue.. it’ll be HWW Wet ground, bring 'em down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 That's a 5.2 SD wind speed anomaly headed for the ME coast. Granted it's at 850 mb and not something we'll mix down, but it gives a sense. To put it in perspective that's pushing the bounds for 06z CFSR climate, basically a once in a generation type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd bang this... fun times in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: fun times in your hood. Pit2 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Notice I said early mid 90’s. Before your time. We had them and they performed and were nothing like this extreme situation . It will depend who is on the desk at BOX. If it’s who was on yesterday we’ll be lucky to have advisories issued. If it’s others that have been around and have a clue.. it’ll be HWW Is this just anecdotal? I'm not sure we've had a bunch of 50-60 knot S/SE winds in the early 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Wow, that Euro depiction is impressively warm core. Funny to have another hybrid system come out of the Caribbean and landfall in SNJ in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is this just anecdotal? I'm not sure we've had a bunch of 50-60 knot S/SE winds in the early 90s. There was one in maybe 93-94 and at least one in 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Off-topic, but 6 years ago today we were glued to a much more interesting storm that was 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Where is the EPS on Weather.us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Off-topic, but 6 years ago today we were glued to a much more interesting storm that was 24 hours out. Five years ago today as well. Who needs Hazel when you've got Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I am trying to get those weenie EPS maps for wind but no idea where they are. Found ut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I am trying to get those weenie EPS maps for wind but no idea where they are. try wx.graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 Smell the O3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Lets get that to interact with a low level PV anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 P&C MEH Sunday Showers likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 55. Breezy, with a southeast wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Monday Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 59. West wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lets get that to interact with a low level PV anomaly. Seems like it will. We stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Is that NECN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Everyone's talking winds, but this has the looks of widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Everyone's talking winds, but this has the looks of widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding... Tides low. Maybe better chance in Maine where tide is later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Tides low. Maybe better chance in Maine where tide is later. Yeah low tide and super low astro tide. Probably won't be too bad most places though some south coast splashover is a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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