OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IN before Kev ,bring um up We have some work to do on our forecast. We have a max gust of 29 knots at PWM. Bring 'em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Come on NWS BOX has Cape Cod winds at 50mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Come on NWS BOX has Cape Cod winds at 50mph James, I wouldn't be expecting 90-100mph winds though either. I think your expectations are very high for this...not that it can't produce higher...but don't be let down if you only see 65 mph instead of 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We have some work to do on our forecast. We have a max gust of 29 knots at PWM. Bring 'em up. Better hope the CMC is up to its usually crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: So for this last storm I looked foolish telling the locals up here to expect 30-50mph wind gusts. We had a few hours of strong south winds with some gusts into the mid to maybe high 30's but my fears of power losses sure never happened. I wonder if this storm will produce? Guess we will have to see if that Euro Hudson Valley storm track holds. That run of the other night's Euro with that 963mb low over Portland was nuts. Put that thing running up the HV and we would be in trouble. At least the leaves are now 75% down up here. High winds are more exciting than a few inches of rain... There are subtle differences between the two events. I'll try to point those out with these two graphics (both GFS forecasts for PWM). The second forecast sounding is the upcoming storm. Notice two things: the winds are on the whole 20-30 knots stronger in the lower levels (highest wind speed below 900 mb was 34 knots in the first example, 60 knots in the second example), and the lapse rates in the boundary layer are steeper in the upcoming storm as well. Some of that may be due to the wind direction. We had SSW winds in the last event, which would typically advect warmer air north, creating a neutrally buoyant or slightly inverted boundary layer. The upcoming storm is more of an easterly component and looks much more well mixed (especially for 2 AM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Yeah it's rare to get those big winds unless there was a catalyst like a trop fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yeah it's rare to get those big winds unless there was a catalyst like a trop fold Speaking of which... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Speaking of which...Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Speaking of which... Looking at the Albany DT maps, the GFS is getting more an more impressive with the PV anomaly. In the 600 mb range. Who doesn't love the smell of ozone in the morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 hours ago, CT Rain said: OKX has a few more forecasters than any of the other WFOs I believe. I'm still salty after that horrific missed severe event from them in August in New London. Yeah they are staffed up fairly well. I'm getting salty with this upcoming event. For a region (New England) that vowed to start with a multi-model blend and make science based adjustments when we see targets of opportunity, there sure is a lot of rip and reading going on. Until Sipprell got the ball rolling tonight, I've seen next to no discussion on this storm in our internal chat. For starters, we know that our multi-model blend due to timing differences will have artificially lower wind speeds (blending averaging out the max winds). How I could walk in to PWM at 19G29 is mind blowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 We blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Oh boy oh boy oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We blow. What do the winds look like Sunday morning through evening? When do you think gusts 25mph and over kick in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 High wind watches flying ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: What do the winds look like Sunday morning through evening? When do you think gusts 25mph and over kick in? Yeah those start in during morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just depends how 93L phases in. Probably good to see it west in case of last minute east ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah those start in during morning. Crap really? The Adventure Park closes once the wind reaches 35mph, but the 2 high courses close at 25mph. Was hoping to get almost an entire work day in Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Check out this GFS forecast sounding from western Mass Monday morning. Bah god, pony-o's and shawls tickling the stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 I like how the EPS is ticking up, up, and away with the wind gusts at PWM. The last few mean gusts I can remember have gone from 54 to 58 to 64 mph. The 90/10 numbers have also narrowed 75-56 mph (max/min 79/47 mph). So we're starting to get a pretty well defined range of wind gusts according to the EPS. In essence, the ceiling remains unchanged, but the floor has come up significantly since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Also, for @Ginx snewx That's a pretty good stratospheric intrusion. 4 PVU surface around 600 mb, when the tropopause is typically defined at about 2 PVU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Check out this GFS forecast sounding from western Mass Monday morning. Bah god, pony-o's and shawls tickling the stratosphere. LOL We'll see how it play out. Maine will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 - HIGH WIND WATCH Sunday night into Monday, 50-70 mph gusts - STORM WATCH Sunday night, 45 to 60 kts ..it's time for the pessimists on here to pay attention. All that's left is Will's blessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: - HIGH WIND WATCH Sunday night into Monday, 50-70 mph gusts - STORM WATCH Sunday night, 45 to 60 kts ..it's time for the pessimists on here to pay attention. All that's left is Will's blessing I think for big wind gusts you're going to want to be in one of these places (and in this order for likelihood): Coast (especially eastern) Downslope regions of the Whites and Greens Hilltops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 It'll be windy elsewhere, but more like advisory gusts vs. HWW gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think for big wind gusts you're going to want to be in one of these places (and in this order for likelihood): Coast (especially eastern) Downslope regions of the Whites and Greens Hilltops lol if that's the case, then this pretty much rules out 95% of SNE from seeing anything out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think for big wind gusts you're going to want to be in one of these places (and in this order for likelihood): Coast (especially eastern) Downslope regions of the Whites and Greens Hilltops What would you define as big? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: lol if that's the case, then this pretty much rules out 95% of SNE from seeing anything out of the ordinary. I'd be pretty impressed if most of SNE pulled off a wind advisory from SE gales. More typically we do that on NW or CAA type winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What would you define as big? 60+ There is certainly potential for somebody with the aid of convection to pull off a hurricane force gust, but that's probably going to be confined to coastal areas. The nested NAM is showing a good burst of convection on the nose of the LLJ kind of from RI north and eastward to coastal ME, that could be the stuff to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: 60+ There is certainly potential for somebody with the aid of convection to pull off a hurricane force gust, but that's probably going to be confined to coastal areas. The nested NAM is showing a good burst of convection on the nose of the LLJ kind of from RI north and eastward to coastal ME, that could be the stuff to watch. Well I think the Euro has the right idea but is prob 5-10 mph too high . I’m donning Margusity’s Big Daddy hat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd be pretty impressed if most of SNE pulled off a wind advisory from SE gales. More typically we do that on NW or CAA type winds. I don't know about what others think, but a wind advisory isn't anything to write home about..pretty mundane imo. So if this goes there...then this won't be anything to impressive for most inland peeps. But we will see how it all plays out...it'll have a few surprises for sure.. good or bad, all the decent storms do. Thanks for the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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