Sunday's Screaming Southeaster

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:40 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'd love to see this storm prove me wrong on winds.  It just seems like TAN can't get anything above the low 50s with gusts.

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TAN can. ASOS cannot.

[wxeyeNH]

  On 10/29/2017 at 10:19 AM, OceanStWx said:

Looks like the last time we issued a hurricane force wind watch was Feb 2013. 

I can't find one before that (not sure how long that has been a product). 

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Okay OceanStWx . I'm in your forecast area as you know. 1100 ft of which 600 ft is above the surrounding country side with the unlimited southview. You get a free Dunkin Donuts gift card if you can guess my highest gust either with my Southwind or my Westwind tomorrow. I'll go with 47 miles an hour? What do you think?

[mreaves]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:46 AM, wxeyeNH said:

Okay oceanStyx . I'm in your forecast area as you know. 1100 ft of which 600 ft is above the surrounding country side with the unlimited southview. You get a free Dunkin Donuts gift card if you can guess my highest gust either with my Southwind or my Westwind tomorrow. I'll go with 47 miles an hour? What do you think?

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Lol OceanStyx

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 10/29/2017 at 10:29 AM, CoastalWx said:

This looks like quite the wind event in much of the area. The whole Phillipe aspect throws a wrench into the Cape and perhaps ext ern areas. But most of the area will gust 45-60. Maybe spot 70 Cape Ane and parts of cstl MA..esp Cape Cod.  If we get those conv cells zipping nwd...those will have the big gusts over 60-70.

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Ssh.. let them think it’s a mundane advisory event with a few gusts in the 40’s like we’ve emphatically been told . 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there a spinner threat at all with this?

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:00 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Ssh.. let them think it’s a mundane advisory event with a few gusts in the 40’s

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Some of the models really give cstl CT a spanking big time as low slings NW. That may help you. In fact, I could see you slightly wedged for a time, and then all of the sudden the WF breaks through and you blow big time. Models sort of show this.

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there a spinner threat at all with this?

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Not sure we have enough srfc CAPE for that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models really give cstl CT a spanking big time as low slings NW. That may help you. In fact, I could see you slightly wedged for a time, and then all of the sudden the WF breaks through and you blow big time. Models sort of show this.

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It seems like strongest winds are 10-2:00 am. Is that the general timeframe?

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It seems like strongest winds are 10-2:00 am. Is that the general timeframe?

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Yeah and you can shorten that window for 1-2 hrs of the strongest.

[Hoth]

Anyone got the Euro ensembles? Assuming they match the op?

[powderfreak]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:44 AM, CoastalWx said:

TAN can. ASOS cannot.

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Why can't an ASOS get above 50?

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 10/29/2017 at 5:35 AM, OceanStWx said:

Annnnd major model fails at all NWS offices.

We're not getting any of the new data into our systems (GFS, HRRR, RAP, etc). 

But we got the 00z NAM and CMC-reg.

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Ah hahahaha ..

least you got that to foundation your yearly perf reviews -

[OceanStWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 11:46 AM, wxeyeNH said:

Okay OceanStWx . I'm in your forecast area as you know. 1100 ft of which 600 ft is above the surrounding country side with the unlimited southview. You get a free Dunkin Donuts gift card if you can guess my highest gust either with my Southwind or my Westwind tomorrow. I'll go with 47 miles an hour? What do you think?

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Yeah, I don’t love your spot for this. 1100 feet will help, but I would prefer you to be on the downslope side of things for 60+.

I think you’re in the ballpark. But I’ll go 50 mph, because I believe in this event. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 10/29/2017 at 3:14 AM, dendrite said:

It must be dawn because James  Dawn has awoken.

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[dendrite]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

Some of the models really give cstl CT a spanking big time as low slings NW. That may help you. In fact, I could see you slightly wedged for a time, and then all of the sudden the WF breaks through and you blow big time. Models sort of show this.

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Obviously on a lesser scale, but models seem to do that up here too. We punch into the low 60s overnight at our peak of the LLJ and run saturated and moist adiabatic up to H8. I'm not really sure what to expect in this area. We don't do big synoptic wind well, but it has happened before. 

[powderfreak]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:23 PM, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I don’t love your spot for this. 1100 feet will help, but I would prefer you to be on the downslope side of things for 60+.

I think you’re in the ballpark. But I’ll go 50 mph, because I believe in this event. 

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I noticed you guys have the highest winds in the downslope areas... just by looking at BT's map and your adjacent area.

All this big wind talk and CON max only 39mph and Jaffery at 1000ft of 40mph?

I've always been hitting the downslope wind hard.  They'll go 60+.  Mountains do the work and mix it down.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 10/29/2017 at 10:04 AM, CoastalWx said:

You do this and always get disappointed.

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most excited he's been in many many years for the third times since January -

[OceanStWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:26 PM, dendrite said:

Obviously on a lesser scale, but models seem to do that up here too. We punch into the low 60s overnight at our peak of the LLJ and run saturated and moist adiabatic up to H8. I'm not really sure what to expect in this area. We don't do big synoptic wind well, but it has happened before. 

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We don’t normally run a 970 up the Hudson, so I’m thinking a few surprises. A nice gravity wave for the chix.

[dendrite]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:23 PM, powderfreak said:

Why can't an ASOS get above 50?

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ASOS generally measures wind well. Unfortunately it seems something with the system begins failing past 50kt. Some of the sites are in geographic craters too and just seem to underreport in general. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:28 PM, powderfreak said:

I noticed you guys have the highest winds in the downslope areas... just by looking at BT's map and your adjacent area.

All this big wind talk and CON max only 39mph and Jaffery at 1000ft of 40mph?

I've always been hitting the downslope wind hard.  They'll go 60+.  Mountains do the work and mix it down.

 

 

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More uncertainty in the gap between HWWs for me. It could blow, but not as slam dunk as the coast and downslope.

They also has no wind headline at all until I issued the advisory, so at least there’s something now.

[dendrite]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:28 PM, powderfreak said:

I noticed you guys have the highest winds in the downslope areas... just by looking at BT's map and your adjacent area.

All this big wind talk and CON max only 39mph and Jaffery at 1000ft of 40mph?

I've always been hitting the downslope wind hard.  They'll go 60+.  Mountains do the work and mix it down.

 

 

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AFN always seems to suck with wind reporting. If we're just playing the ASOS game I'll take CON and the point over AFN all day.

[moneypitmike]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:02 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there a spinner threat at all with this?

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Lots of anemometers will be spinning.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:29 PM, dendrite said:

ASOS generally measures wind well. Unfortunately it seems something with the system begins failing past 50kt. Some of the sites are in geographic craters too and just seem to underreport in general. 

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Yeah that's what I mean, to answer PF. KTAN seems to under-report for whatever reason. Might be location, but I dunno. I suppose near ground it's correct, but in reality, tree top stuff is much higher.

[ORH_wxman]

The window for best winds is pretty tight. This will be an interesting event to track. It's basically 10pm to 1am. If we don't get big winds by 1am, then we will know ot didn't work out. On the flip side, I could see a lot of premature bust calls around 8-9pm and then all of the sudden the jet engines touch down an hour later. 

[OceanStWx]

Also @powderfreak, those may be low ball numbers. That might be knots. I know it says mph, but our graphic does the same thing, it doesn’t convert to mph from the knots we forecast.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that's what I mean, to answer PF. KTAN seems to under-report for whatever reason. Might be location, but I dunno. I suppose near ground it's correct, but in reality, tree top stuff is much higher.

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ORH will be a good guide for interior areas. They typically do not underreport at all ....they also have total southern and eastern exposure with no terrain in the way. If they can't pull 50 knots in this, then nobody can that far in the interior outside of like WaWa or Watatic or Monadnock. 

[OceanStWx]

Never mind, looks like BTV adjusted.

[powderfreak]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:36 PM, ORH_wxman said:

ORH will be a good guide for interior areas. They typically do not underreport at all ....they also have total southern and eastern exposure with no terrain in the way. If they can't pull 50 knots in this, then nobody can that far in the interior outside of like WaWa or Watatic or Monadnock. 

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I was thinking that.  ORH does real well in wind reporting being up high and exposed.

I see ORH doing 58mph gust and a certain poster using it to say they gusted into the 60s  .  I think ORH should be highest of all interior spots.

[CoastalWx]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:43 PM, powderfreak said:

I was thinking that.  ORH does real well in wind reporting being up high and exposed.

I see ORH doing 58mph gust and a certain poster using it to say they gusted into the 60s  .  I think ORH should be highest of all interior spots.

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Kevin might do better. He's gonna be close to the LLJ sling back and gets good exposure.

[powderfreak]

  On 10/29/2017 at 12:31 PM, OceanStWx said:

More uncertainty in the gap between HWWs for me. It could blow, but not as slam dunk as the coast and downslope.

They also has no wind headline at all until I issued the advisory, so at least there’s something now.

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For downslope winds, you know this NWS forecasters home location is often #1 in our area for wind.  Downslope wind heaven.

Large open flat fields on an elevated bench at 700-1000ft on the immediate west slope.

http://www.nashvillevtweather.net/

We won't do wind like this in Stowe on the east side as the terrain just causes it to go up and over like a rock in a river.  Then it all goes crashing down into people's houses on the west side like a waterfall.