RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 To get 5-6”, you need the train arriving early sunday, as Ryan alluded to. This is hawling arse, don’t see those amounts on the east side unless said train tracks setup early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:38 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: To get 5-6”, you need the train arriving early sunday, as Ryan alluded to. This is hawling arse, don’t see those amounts of the east side unless said train tracks setup early. Expand What do PWATs look like? Also, we got most of our 4-5" in about 2-3 hours the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Euro has 2 wind maxes, SW CT, NYC Cape Cod. Inland CT Hartford East misses huge winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 if not physically measurable ... holistically this whole scenario seems to be evolving as though it is both a captured 'Cane, and a cyclone-season coastal bomb ...simultaneously. It's riding the edge between both worlds. Fascinating... It'll be interesting when this is going on/post-mortem to observe the phase diagrams - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:45 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro has 2 wind maxes, SW CT, NYC Cape Cod. Inland CT Hartford East misses huge winds. Expand You left out the NE spots. Big winds up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:39 PM, Hoth said: What do PWATs look like? Also, we got most of our 4-5" in about 2-3 hours the other day. Expand This reminds me of a wet Mar 17 a bit. The heaviest amounrs will be up in NY with the ccb. Unless we get early feeds tomorrow. I have not looked at pwats but with the tropical feed, 2+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:45 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro has 2 wind maxes, SW CT, NYC Cape Cod. Inland CT Hartford East misses huge winds. Expand We all get big winds. This isn’t 1 narrow zone. It may show that , but you know as well as I do it doesn’t work that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 PWATS aren't actually overly impressive (given the setup) only around 1.5'' on average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 What is the leaf status down there? Mostly bare up here now in Central New England. Are the forests still mostly in full leaf? That makes a big difference in possible damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2017 Author Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:55 PM, wxeyeNH said: What is the leaf status down there? Mostly bare up here now in Central New England. Are the forests still mostly in full leaf? That makes a big difference in possible damage! Expand Lots of full leaf trees. Also 5" of rain here a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Lots of leaves still on the tress in the Hudson Valley. I would imagine a lot of the same farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:55 PM, weatherwiz said: PWATS aren't actually overly impressive (given the setup) only around 1.5'' on average Expand Red flag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 this storm has two main facet concerns: -- hydro -- wind the former may be mitigated some by translation speed. however, I caution that. i've seen heavier fall rates in thunderstorms exceed 2" in a single hour, and given the PWAT foisted up the coast and the eccentrically unique mechanics in play with this thing, i don't think the fact that it's over in 12 hours is much of a limiting fact for rapid responder water systems/climo areas for flooding. despite the antecedent dryness ...the last system 2-5" basin wide refit sort of primed the wick. as to the wind. this last system was perhaps 1/2 total mechanical in power, and we generate 40 mph wind gusts for several hours when the lower pressure left the region and the restoring came in a whoosh. Point being, I'm wondering what happens when this bag of meso lows and hybrid nuclei finally coalesce into the 970 mb range and escapes so quickly N of the region, that back side really looks just about as uniquely designed for an isallobaric wind burst as there could be imaginably set up. ...I bet the products that model that specific sort of thing are only ho-hum, too. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:55 PM, wxeyeNH said: What is the leaf status down there? Mostly bare up here now in Central New England. Are the forests still mostly in full leaf? That makes a big difference in possible damage! Expand It's varies from 50% bare here in Enfield to green trees around Hartford. Surprisingly it's rather bare closer to the CT coast. I drove down to Haddam this morning and it's was about 75% bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:58 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Red flag? Expand Possibly. I know that PWATS like sort of indicate how much rain could fall if all the moisture in the air was like produced as rain (or something like that) but I don't have a great knowledge of them. I'm not sure if they would really be a great indicator in a setup like this b/c of the fast nature of the system and how there is going to be extreme lift and moisture transport from the insane LLJ and really rich theta-e values. I'm doing a blog post (just focusing on CT) and I'm mentioning like 1-3'' of rain with maybe some isolated higher amounts depending on if we do dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Id be content with anything over 50mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:02 PM, weatherwiz said: Possibly. I know that PWATS like sort of indicate how much rain could fall if all the moisture in the air was like produced as rain (or something like that) but I don't have a great knowledge of them. I'm not sure if they would really be a great indicator in a setup like this b/c of the fast nature of the system and how there is going to be extreme lift and moisture transport from the insane LLJ and really rich theta-e values. I'm doing a blog post (just focusing on CT) and I'm mentioning like 1-3'' of rain with maybe some isolated higher amounts depending on if we do dry slot. Expand Thats my thoughts wrt rain amounts as well. Have less strong thoughts about the wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:45 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro has 2 wind maxes, SW CT, NYC Cape Cod. Inland CT Hartford East misses huge winds. Expand Expecting totally grid phailure here with gusts to 40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:06 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats my thoughts wrt rain amounts as well. Have less strong thoughts about the wind though. Expand I'm going with 25-35 mph gusts with isolated 40 mph gusts and 35-45 mph gusts across SE CT with potential for 55 mph gusts. I think Monday we see widespread 45-55 mph gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:02 PM, weatherwiz said: Possibly. I know that PWATS like sort of indicate how much rain could fall if all the moisture in the air was like produced as rain (or something like that) but I don't have a great knowledge of them. I'm not sure if they would really be a great indicator in a setup like this b/c of the fast nature of the system and how there is going to be extreme lift and moisture transport from the insane LLJ and really rich theta-e values. I'm doing a blog post (just focusing on CT) and I'm mentioning like 1-3'' of rain with maybe some isolated higher amounts depending on if we do dry slot. Expand That's the problem ... 1.5" is a huge number when so much mass is pumping continuously into the system... If it rained out 1.5" and left the column devoid of moisture; that's not what/why PWAT means. Jamming additional 1.5" into the columns as it is raining, the x-coordinate becomes important... that becomes many 1.5's. I am not sure any amount of convection can exceed the inflow when it's 70 knts through 300 mb of atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:11 PM, Typhoon Tip said: That's the problem ... 1.5" is a huge number when so much mass is pumping continuously into the system... If it rained out 1.5" and left the column devoid of moisture; that's not what/why PWAT means. Jamming additional 1.5" into the columns as it is raining, the x-coordinate becomes important... that becomes many 1.5's. I am not sure any amount of convection can exceed the inflow when it's 70 knts through 300 mb of atmosphere. Expand interesting...would have never ever thought to really think of it like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 6:37 PM, jbenedet said: May be an obvious point to most but for the big wind producers I've always noticed the wind start to pick up and become breezy 24 hrs or so before worst impacts. So if this one means business we should start to see winds gradually increasing tonight into tomorrow. If early tomorrow am is gusty the along the coast this one should be a doozy.... Expand Actually fairly breezy down here today. Nothing too remarkable, but windier than I expected today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Pretty gusty here at school...though I'm like 4000' up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 How are the tides supposed to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 for 10,000 $ ... would you go up to the bald dome of Monadnock at 3:52 am Monday morning with a kite ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:17 PM, weatherwiz said: Pretty gusty here at school...though I'm like 4000' up. Expand Mt Washington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said: for 10,000 $ ... would you go up to the bald dome of Monadnock at 3:52 am Monday morning with a kite ? Expand yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said: for 10,000 $ ... would you go up to the bald dome of Monadnock at 3:52 am Monday morning with a kite ? Expand I'd do it for blizz of '78 replica displaced 50 mi north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Mt Washington? Expand one too many 0's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 7:22 PM, Typhoon Tip said: for 10,000 $ ... would you go up to the bald dome of Monadnock at 3:52 am Monday morning with a kite ? Expand Id do a lot more for $10k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.