November 2017 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest (with added locations)

[Roger Smith]

<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (January-November) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 28 above for final November scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Best total scores January-October are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded both within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field.

 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___TOTAL__Best scores, months

 

 1 RJay _____________ 538 _537 _508 __1583___534 _770_799__2103__ 3686_122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 

 2 DonSutherland.1 ____557 _496 _477 __1530___597 _722 _795__2108___3638 _001.122.1.3_Jan, May  

 3 BKViking __________ 576 _510 _532 __1618___563 _767 _632 __1962___3580 _110.001.1.1_Oct 

 

 4 Consensus _________554 _498 _485 __1537 ___551 _773_715 __2039___3576 __010.000

 

 4 wxallannj __________601 _504 _562__1667___466 _709 _696 __1871___3538 __002.022.1.0 _Jun

 5 Tom ______________593 _489 _497 __1579 ___509 _704 _649__1862___3441 __111.211.1.0

 6 RodneyS __________ 532 _448 _406 __1386 ___624 _665 _763__2052___3438 __011.411.0.2 _ Mar,Nov

 7 SD _______________ 584 _531 _525 __1640 ___546 _654 _588__1788___3428 _ 121200.1.0 _ Sep

 8 dmillz25 __________ 610 _499 _484 __1593 ___543 _656 _610__1809___3402 __100.101

 9 hudsonvalley21______523 _455 _466 __1444 ___535 _726 _691__1952___3396 __000.010  

 

10 Normal ____________570 _541 _536 __1647 ___499 _566 _594__1659 ___3316 __101.001.0.0 __ May

 

10 wxdude64 _________536 _457 _519 __1512 ___475 _665 _614__1754___3266 __120.001.1.0

11 Roger Smith _______ 550 _503 _392 __1445 ___461 _616 _589__1666___3111 __101.001.0.0_Aug

12 Neckbeard93*______ 419 _399 _359 __1177 ___592 _634 _614__1840___3017 __111.000.1.0

13 so_whats_happening#507_391 _430 __1328 ___443 _638 _567 __1648___2976__200.110 .0.1

14 Stebo $____________450 _461 _423 __1334 ___389 _534 _545 __1468___2802 __011.102.1.0 __ Jul 

15 Damage in Tolland __ 402 _364 _353 __1119 ___442 _538 _540__1520___2639 __000.010..0.0

16 H2Otown_WX~~____ 414 _365 _375 __1154___ 294 _527 _448__1269___2423 __110.001..1.0

17 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___ 322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 __001.000

18 rainsucks // ________ 166 _172 _138 __ 476 ___ 150 _184 _170 __ 504___ 980 __121.100.1.1_Sep,Oct

19 CCM %%__________ 136 _106 _156 __ 398 ___ 146 _134 _126 __ 406____ 804 __000.100..0.1

20 snoski14 !! _________ 42 __ 92 __ 91 __ 225 ___117 _152 _132 __ 401____ 626 __011.000.1.0_ Oct

21 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107 _123 __ 341 ____ 25 _140 _118 __ 283____ 624 __110.010 

22 Maxim^____________ 80 __ 85 __78 __ 243 ____50 _150 _142 __ 342____ 585 __100.001

23 JBG % _____________88 __ 64 __32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 __ 88 __ 220____ 404

24 IntenseBlizzard 2014/_ 62 __ 48 __58 __ 168 ____ 32 _ 64 __ 96 __ 192____ 360

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - October 2017

Best scores: numbers are best scores for DEN, PHX and SEA ... red months are best scores in western contest, and green months at end of row are best scores for all nine in that month.

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 1 Rjay _______________ 694 _688 _847___2229 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 5915 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL

 

 2 Consensus ___________702 _676 _828 ___2206 __ 2 0 0 _________ 5782 ( = 2)

 

 2 RodneyS ____________716 _765 _708 ___ 2189 __ 2 3 0 __ Oct ___ 5627 ( = 4) __ MAR, NOV

 3 wxallannj ___________ 678 _701 _790 ___ 2169 __ 1 1 1 __ Nov ____5707 ( = 3) __ JUN

 4 DonSutherland.1 _____ 708 _663 _720 ___ 2091 __ 2 1 0 __ Aug ___ 5729 ( = 2)__JAN, MAY,AUG

 5 Roger Smith _________509 _697 _882 ___ 2088 __ 0 1 2__ Feb ____ 5199 (= 11) 

 6 wxdude64 ___________584 _666 _795 ___ 2045 __ 2 2 1 __ Nov ___ 5311 (= 10) 

 7 BKViking ____________526 _613 _890 ___ 2029 __ 0 0 1 _________ 5609 ( = 5) __ SEP, OCT

 8 dmillz25 ____________ 606 _602 _776 ___ 1984 __ 2 0 1 _ Apr,Sep _ 5386 ( = 8) 

 9 Tom _______________ 547 _691 _734 ___ 1972 __ 0 0 0 __________5413  ( = 6)

10 so_whats_happening#_595 _667 _702 ___ 1964 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _4940 (= 12)

11 hudsonvalley21 ______ 564 _665 _734 ___ 1963 __ 0 0 0 _________ 5359 ( = 9)

12 SD_________________ 644 _655 _660 ___ 1959 __ 0 0 0 __________5387 ( = 7)

 

13 Normal _____________ 580 _598 _590 ___ 1868 __ 0 1 0 _________ 5184 (= 12)

 

13 Damage in Tolland ____529 _572 _738 ___ 1839 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun _____4478 (= 14)

14 Neckbeard93* _______760 _507 _465 ___ 1732 __ 3 1 0 _________ 4749 (= 13) 

15 H20TownWx~~______ 560 _476 _621 ___ 1657 __ 0 0 1 _________ 4080 (= 16) 

16 Stebo $_____________ 489 _518 _593 ___ 1604 __ 1 0 1 _________ 4406 ( =15) 

17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ___ 1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (= 19)

19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 __ 0 0 0 _________ 1055 (= 21)

20 rainsucks // _________ 136 _150 _104 ____ 390 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1370 (= 18)__SEP,OCT

21 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 __ 0 0 0 __________1168 (= 20)

22 IntenseBlizzard 2014/ __ 98 _ 50 _ 88 _____236 __ 1 0 0 ___________ 596 (= 24) 

23 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 612 (= 23)

24 snoski14 !! ___________ 79 _ 14 _ 56 ____ 149 __ 0 0 0 ___________ 775 (= 22)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), $ two months missed (Oct, Nov)

~~ two months missed (July, August)

~ five months missed (July, August, September, October, November)

^ three months entered (Jan, Feb, Mar)

%% two months entered (May, June) ... // two months entered (September, October)

% one month entered (July) ... / one month entered (September) ... !! two months entered (Oct, Nov)

 

Reports on points lost due to late penalties removed

... table shows late penalties for original six and western contests. e.g., 0,2 means 0 points lost and 2 points lost.

FORECASTER ___ Jan _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct _ Nov ___ TOTAL

Blazess556 _____(0,2) _- - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - ___ 0, 2

Rjay ___________- - - _(22,19)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - ___22,19

Damage in Tolland - - -_(13, 5)- - _- - - _ - - - _(75,23)- - -_- - - _(54,29)- - - ___142,57

wxdude64 ______ - - -_(12, 2)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _(7,4)_ - - - _ - - - ___ 19, 6 

H2O_Town__wx _ - - -_- - -_(25,26)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - (15,11) (27,21)- - -____67,58

Neckbeard93 ____- - -_- - -_(14,18)- - _- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - _(29,9) ___ 43,27

BKViking _______  - - -_- - -_- - - (20,12)- - -_- - - _ - - - _ - - - _- - - _- - - ____ 20,12

Stebo __________ - - - _- - -_ - - -_- - - (24,15) - - _ - - -_ - - - _- - - _- - - ____ 24,15

SD ____________ - - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - - _- - -(30,10) ___ 30,10

 

Comparative scoring for Neckbeard93, and so_whats_happening

... These two regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January, and so_whats_happening missed April.

... I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western), 469 for April (249, 220) and 549 in October (347, 202).

Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these three would be

Neckbeard93 ____________3158 __ 1956 ___ 5114 _____ 11th __ 13th __ 12th

so_whats_happening _____ 3225 __ 2184 ___ 5409 _____ 11th __ 3rd ___ 7th

 

(these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties, also the ranks are noted independently as if the other two had not also moved up ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low). 

For H2OTown__wx who missed July and August, if 800 and 400 points had been scored in the two sections, ranks would be 12th, 8th and 11th.

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons Contest Final Report

 

Autumn 2017 scoring

 

Original six (eastern and central) __ Western _____________________ All Nine

Rank_Forecaster _ Total  _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster_Total_Points __Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts

 1 __ BKViking _____ 1056 __ 10 ____ 1 __ RodneyS _______ 574 __ 10 ___ 1 __ Rodney S ____1571 _10

 2 __ Tom _________1043 ___ 7 ____ 2 __ wxdude64 ______ 536 ___ 7 ___ 2 __ BKViking ____ 1570 _ 7

 3 __ Roger Smith __ 1029 ___ 6 ____ 3 __ wxallannj _______ 532 ___ 6 ___ 3 __ wxallannj ___ 1555 _ 6

 4 __ wxallannj _____1023 ___ 5 ____ 4 __ BKViking ________514 ___ 5 ____4 __ Tom _______ 1507 _ 5

 5 _so_whats_happn_1017 ___ 4 _____5 __ RJay ___________510 ___ 4 ____5 __ SD ________ 1477 _ 4

 6 __ RodneyS ______ 997 ___ 3 _____6 __ Neckbeard93 ____509 ___ 3 ___ t6 _so_whats_happn 1473_3

 7 __ SD ___________ 995 ___ 2 _____7 __ H2OTown_wx ___489 ___ 2 ___ t6 __ Neckbeard93 _1473 _ 3

 8 __ Dmillz25 _______967 ___ 1 _____8 __ SD ____________482 ___ 1 ____ 8 __ Roger Smith _ 1469 _ 1

 9  _ Neckbeard93 ___ 964 ___ 1 _____9 __ hudsonvalley21 __480 ___ 1  ___ 9 __ wxdude64 ___ 1441 _ 1

10 __ hudsonvalley21 _941 ___ 1 ____10 _ _DonSutherland.1_ 479 ___ 1 ___10 __ hudsonvalley21 1421 _1

also  8 __ rainsucks __ 980 __ 1) ... from 2/3 ... does not bump a regular from points, did not finish top ten other lists)

(only those who played 3/3 are shown in this portion which we will call the pointless portion)

11 __ RJay _________ 907 ___ 0 ____11 __ Tom __________464 ___ 0 ____ 11 __ RJay ________1417 _ 0

12 __ wxdude64 _____905 ___ 0 ____12 __ so_whats_happn_456 ___ 0 ____12 __ Dmillz25 _____1412 _ 0

13 __ H2OTown_wx __ 878 __ 0 ____ 13 __ Dmillz25 _______445 ___ 0 ____ 13 __ H2OTown_wx_1367 _ 0

13 __ DonSutherland.1_740 __ 0 ____ 14 __ Roger Smith ___ 440 ___ 0 ____ 14 __ DonSutherland 1219 _ 0

 

(ranks and scoring below are independent of actual forecasters)

 6 __ Consensus ___ 1011 ___ 3 ____t2 __ Consensus _____ 536 ____ 7 ____ 4 __ Consensus ___ 1547 _ 5

10 _ _ Normal ______ 944 ___ 1 ____7 ___Normal ________ 492 ____2 ____ 10 __ Normal _____ 1436 _ 1

 

TOTAL POINTS (winter + spring + summer + autumn) __ Contest Final Results

 

Original Six _________________ Western _____________________ All Nine

 

DonSutherland1 ___ 23 _________ RJay ___________ 25 ___________RodneyS ___________ 24

RJay ____________ 16 _________ RodneyS ________ 20 ___________DonSutherland1 _____ 23

BKViking _________ 15 _________ H2OTown__Wx___ 13 ___________RJay _______________18

RodneyS _________ 14__________ wxallannj ________15 __________ BKViking ___________ 12

Tom _____________13 __________wxdude64 _______14 ___________wxallannj ___________12

Stebo ____________13 __________ DonSutherland1 __10 ___________Tom _______________ 9

blazess556 ________11 __________Dmillz25 ________ 10___________ so_whats_happening __9

wxallannj _________ 10 ________so_whats_happening 10___________ DMillz25 ____________8

Damage in Tolland __ 8 __________ BKViking _________8___________ Stebo ______________8

SD _______________ 7 __________ hudsonvalley21 ___ 7___________hudsonvalley21 ______ 7

hudsonvalley21 _____ 7 __________Roger Smith ______ 7  __________blazess556 __________7

Roger Smith ________7 __________ blazess556 _______ 5___________H2OTown__ Wx _____ 6

so_whats_happening_ 6  __________Tom  ____________5   _________ SD ________________ 6

dmillz25 ___________ 5__________ SD ______________ 4  _________ Maxim _____________ 5

Maxim ____________ 5 __________ Stebo ___________ 4 __________ wxdude64 __________ 3

wxdude64 _________ 2 __________Neckbeard93 ______ 3 __________ Neckbeard93 ________3

H2OTown_Wx ______ 1 _________ Damage in Tolland __1 __________ Damage in Tolland ___ 3

Neckbeard93 _______ 1 __________ Maxim ___________0 __________ Roger Smith ________ 2

rainsucks __________ 1 __________ rainsucks ________ 0 ___________ rainsucks __________ 0

 

Consensus _________13 _________ Consensus _______18 _____________ Consensus __________20

Normal ____________11 _________ Normal __________ 3 _____________ Normal _____________ 3

________________________________________________________________

So, it turned into quite a close four seasons contest, DonSutherland.1 held on to win the "original six" and RJay did likewise to hold on to the western, but RodneyS who was running amok in the autumn just edged into first place overall in the all nine contest segment. Consensus and Normal are separated out from the table, Consensus (our average basically) finishing tied 5th in the original six and third in both western and all nine. 

Congrats to the winners.