November 2017 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest (with added locations)

[Roger Smith]

First of all, the routine business ... predict the temperature anomalies in F deg (relative to 1981-2010 normals) for these nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

The deadline for this ongoing contest is 06z on Wed Nov 1st with 1% late penalties for each 2h first 36h, then 1% per hour.

Snowfall contest -- improved over previous years by deleting ATL, IAH and PHX and adding three places where it actually snows

So predict the total 2017-18 winter snowfall (including anything already measured) at these nine locations:

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ DTW __ BUF ____ DEN __ SEA __ BTV

You can submit entries for this up to and including November 15th. Also you can edit entries already made, as I won't collect your forecasts for a table of entries until Nov 16th after the deadline of 06z. This does not apply to the temperature forecasts, those were collected and stored several days after the deadline of Nov 1st. 

Good luck and thanks to ATL, IAH and PHX for giving up their spots for future considerations. (now watch it snow like crazy in the south)

[dmillz25]

DCA : 2.5     17"

NYC: 2.3.     41"

BOS: 2.7.     57"

ORD: -1.5    67"

ATL: 1.5     DTW: 70"

IAH: 1.0     BUF: 105"

DEN: -2.0    60"

PHX: 1.0    BTV: 96"

SEA: -3.7   15"

[Rjay]

DCA :  +4.0     10"

NYC:  +4.0      40"

BOS:  +4.0     70"

ORD:  +3.0    50"

ATL:  +4.0    DTW: 55"

IAH:  +4.0     BUF: 120"

DEN:  +0.5  80"

PHX:  -0.5    BTV: 105"

SEA:  -1.5  6"

[Stebo]

Since I missed the last month or so with the temperature contest I will pass on that, but here are my snow totals

DCA 12.5" 

NYC 33.7" 

BOS 50.0" 

ORD 50.0" 

DTW 57.3" 

BUF 65.0" 

DEN 50.5" 

SEA 7.0" 

BTV 72.5"

[so_whats_happening]

DCA +2.9     22"

NYC +2.1     38"

BOS +1.8    63"

ORD +1.3    31"

ATL+2.7    (DTW) 36"

IAH+2.1     (BUF) 85"

DEN -0.6     53"

PHX +0.4    (BTV) 96"

SEA -1.5      14"

 

[Tom]

DCA :  +1.1     19.6"

NYC:  +0.8      43.8"

BOS:  +0.2     63.1"

ORD:  -0.2    59.4"

ATL:  +1.2    DTW: 53.4"

IAH:  +0.8     BUF: 103.8"

DEN:  -0.2   71.5"

PHX:  +0.2    BTV: 109.3"

SEA:  -0.3  9.4"

 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA +3.1    15.5"

NYC +3.3     42"

BOS +3.1     57"

ORD +1.4    47"

ATL  +3.4     (DTW) 51"

IAH +3.2      (BUF) 91"

DEN +0.4      64"

PHX +0.3    (BTV) 89"

SEA -1.7       10"

[SnoSki14]

DCA: +7.0   2"

NYC: +8.0.  5"

BOS: +5.0  35"

ORD: +1.5  40"   

ATL: +4.0  DTW: 45"

IAH: +2.0  BUF:. 80"

DEN: -1.0  55"

PHX: -2.0  BTV 75" 

SEA: -3.0  30"

[wxallannj]

DCA: +2.8  12.3"

NYC: +2.9.  27"

BOS: +2.4  33"

ORD: +2.4  38"  

ATL: +3.6  DTW: 43"

IAH: +2.7 BUF:. 53"

DEN: +2.5  58"

PHX: +2.0  BTV 57"

SEA: -1,4  19"

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

4.0     3.6     3.4          1.7     5.4     5.7                1.1     -0.6    -3.1  

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.2     2.1      2.9        -0.2     2.3     5.4                 1.5     2.8    -2.5  

 Like this

[wxdude64]

DCA: +1.8

NYC: +1.9

BOS: +0.7

ORD: -2.3

ATL: +1.3

IAH: +1.3

DEN: -2.7

PHX: +2.0

SEA: +1.1

SNOW

DCA: 16.3

NYC: 27.7

BOS: 37.5

ORD: 54.8

DTW: 55.5

BUF: 102.2

DEN: 77.6

BTV: 99.5

SEA:11.2

 

[H2Otown_WX]

DCA...NYC...BOS        ORD...IAH...ATL    DEN...PHX...SEA

+2.1...+1.5...+1.5   +1.3...+1.7...+2.4    -0.6...+0.3...-0.7

[Roger Smith]

+1.5 __ +1.0 __ +1.2 ____ +1.7 __ +0.2 __ +0.4 ____--1.5 __ +2.0 __ --0.8

snowfall forecasts added Nov 13th

19.5 ___ 40.0 __ 60.0 ____ 33.0 __ DTW45.0 _ BUF80.0 __ (DEN)55.0 _ BTV110.0 _ (SEA)17.5

(just reminding all participants you have to end of Nov 15 to submit or edit snowfall contest forecasts, check post 1 for the locations, we're not bothering with the southern three this winter)

[bkviking]

DCA :  +3.0     11"

NYC:  +3.1   33"

BOS:  +3.1     70"

ORD:  +1.9    40"

ATL:  +2.5    DTW: 50"

IAH:  +2.1     BUF: 110"

DEN:  +0.4  77"

PHX:  -0.2    BTV: 110"

SEA:  -1.1  10"

[Scotty Lightning]

Welp, here come the penalties....

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

1.0      1.0       0.5            0.0       1.0        1.0         1.0       1.5       0.5 

 

SNOWFALL EDIT (11/13/17-just the three cities I messed up on)

DCA __ NYC __ BOS _____ ORD __ DTW __ BUF ____ DEN __ SEA __ BTV

10"     23"     45"           55"            67"        110"          85"       4"      87"       

[Neckbeard93]

Argh. Completely forgot. Gonna forgo snow predicting this year and study it a little first.

DCA: 2.4

NYC: 3.1

BOS: 2.8

ORD: 0.5

ATL: 2.9

IAH: 3.2

DEN: 1.0

PHX: 0.0

SEA: --1.7

 

[Roger Smith]

Those won't be very large late penalties, I think about 7% and 9% ... will post a table of forecasts some time Thursday afternoon or evening. All scoring updated over in the October thread. 

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for November 2017

 

FORECASTER ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

SnoSki14 ____________________+7.0_+8.0_+5.0__ +1.5 _+4.0 _+2.0 ___ --1.0 _--2.0_--3.0  

RJay _______________________ +4.0 _+4.0 _+4.0 __ +3.0 _+4.0 _+4.0 ___ +0.5 _--0.5 _--1.5

DonSutherland.1 ______________+4.0 _+3.6 _+3.4 __ +1.7 _+5.4 _+5.7 ___ +1.1 _--0.6 _--3.1  

hudsonvalley21 _______________+3.1 _+3.3 _+3.1 __ +1.4 _+3.4 _+3.2 ___ +0.4 _+0.3 _--1.7  

BKViking ____________________ +3.0 _+3.1 _+3.1 __ +1.9 _+2.5 _+2.1 ___ +0.4 _--0.2 _--1.1

so_whats_happening __________ +2.9 _+2.1 _+1.8 __ +1.3 _+2.7 _+2.1 ___ --0.6 _+0.4 _--1.5  

wxallannj ____________________+2.8 _+2.9 _+2.4 __ +2.4 _+3.6 _+2.7 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _--1.4

dmillz25 ____________________ +2.5 _+2.3 _+2.7 __ --1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ --2.0 _+1.0 _--3.7

 

___ Consensus _______________+2.5 _+2.2 _+2.6 __ +1.3 _+2.4 _+2.1 ___ +0.4 _+0.3 _--1.4

 

Neckbeard93 ____ (-9%) ______ +2.4 _+3.1 _+2.8 __ +0.5 _+2.9 _+3.2 ___ +1.0 __ 0.0 _--1.7

H2OTown__wx _______________+2.1 _+1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.3 _+2.4 _+1.7 ___ --0.6 _+0.3 _--0.7

wxude64 ____________________+1.8 _+1.9 _+0.7 __ --2.3 _+1.3 _+1.3 ___ --2.7 _+2.0 _+1.1

Roger Smith _________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.2 __ +1.7 _+0.2 _+0.4 ___ --1.5 _+2.0 _--0.8

RodneyS ____________________ +1.2 _+2.1 _+2.9 __ --0.2 _+2.3 _+5.4 ___ +1.5 _+2.8 _--2.5  

Tom _______________________ +1.1 _+0.8 _+0.2 __ --0.2 _+1.2 _+0.8 ___ --0.2 _+0.2 _--0.3

SD _______ (-7%) ___________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5

___ Normal __________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

Color codes:

+4.0 __ warmest forecasts (regular entrants)

--2.0 __ coldest forecasts (regular entrants) __ where positive (ATL,IAH), Normal has coldest value.

+8.0 __ more extreme forecasts from other entrant(s).

____________________________________________________________

Consensus is determined from the regular entrants (so that at end of year, it is comparable to total scores in the regular group) and in this case (to date) this is the median of 14 forecasts (2nd to 15th listed in the table of forecasts) and thus is the mean of 7th and 8th ranked values. This will be adjusted if Damage makes an appearance (Stebo has bowed out for the year, see his post above). This was not quite a precise operation over the year as I probably included occasional entrants Jan to Apr before having this brainstorm of making consensus fully comparable (in other words, giving us all a chance to outdo our own internal consensus). Last month, for example, it probably reduced the Consensus score from 400 to about 350. I think this is a better comparison for the regular entrants.

SnoSki14 (and rainsucks if you enter later) may catch up to me or other stragglers in the annual contest at the rate achieved so far, and you will gradually enter into regular forecaster territory if you stay with us, the first occasion would be winter 2017-18 seasonal scoring where all who enter three months are eligible, and of course the 2018 contest year. 

(note: Nov 11th, temp forecasts verified and placed in excel file, edits only allowed for snowfall contest which closes end of Nov 15th).

 

[Roger Smith]

Here's our first look at the anomalies and projections ... expect the eastern values to drop sharply after today with record low readings reported (Central Park broke a record for Nov 11th from 1933 which came before some notable record lows in late Dec 1933 and through Feb of 1934). 

________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ____ ORD _ATL _IAH _____ DEN _PHX _SEA

______ (10d) _____+2.0 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___--5.6 _+6.7 _+7.4 ____--1.8 _+4.5 _--4.1

______ (p17d) ____--1.7 _--2.7 _--1.8 ___--4.3 _+3.0 _+8.0 ____+3.0 _+4.5 _--2.0

______ (p27d) ____--1.5 _--2.0 _--1.2 ___--2.5 _+3.5 _+6.0 ____+3.5 _+4.0 _--0.5

[donsutherland1]

My seasonal snowfall guesses:

DCA: 15.1"

NYC: 34.3"

BOS: 53.4"

ORD: 48.9"

DTW: 54.2"

BUF: 112.6"

DEN: 55.8"

SEA: 7.3"

BTV: 96.7"

 

[Roger Smith]

Thanks Don, and just a reminder to all entrants or lurkers who would like to enter this snowfall contest, the deadline will be whenever I come into the thread on the 16th to create the table of entries, so let's say 16th 06z to be safe. Anyone can edit their current entries without making a note of it, before then, as I have not marked anything down yet. Good luck. I just added my entries to my original post. Expecting a fairly snowy winter in the Pac NW and closer to normal most other locations, thinking the winter will have some good periods but it may be a dry cold when it gets cold.

There is also a snowfall contest in the Lakes/OV forum (deadline end of Nov) and off-site some of you already know about this one, the Northeast U.S. snowfall contest blog at the location indicated below, seasonal forecasts there are due Nov 30th and then they also have storm forecast contests through the season.

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

[RodneyS]

2017-18 Snowfall:

DCA: 8.1"

NYC: 25.0"

BOS: 35.8"

ORD: 52.4"

DTW: 45.7"

BUF: 95.8"

DEN: 52.1"

SEA: 12.5"

BTV: 57.0"

[H2Otown_WX]

I guess this is technically late.

DCA: 14.4"

NYC: 23.2"

BOS: 41.2"

 

ORD: 44.4"

DTW: 38.7"

BUF: 93.4"

 

DEN: 40.6"

SEA: 5.4"

BTV: 67.1"

[Roger Smith]

Not late, the deadline is tonight. Anyone can edit their entries for the rest of the day, I will be collecting the forecasts into a table of entries around 06z to 07z which is still before midnight where I live, but most of you might want to have a look in the morning to see the spread of snowfall predictions. 

[Roger Smith]

Snowfall 2017-18 contest -- Table of Forecasts

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 

 

so_whats_happening___ 22.0 _ 38.0 _ 63.0 __ 31.0 _ 36.0 __ 85.0 __ 53.0 _ 14.0 _ 96.0

Tom ________________ 19.6 _ 43.8 _63.1 __ 59.4 _ 53.4 _ 103.8 __ 71.5 __ 9.4 _109.3

Roger Smith __________19.5 _ 40.0 _ 60.0 __ 33.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 17.5 _110.0

dmillz25 _____________ 17.0 _ 41.0 _ 57.0 __ 67.0_ 70.0_ 105.0 __ 60.0 _ 15.0 _ 96.0

wxdude64 ____________16.3 _ 27.7 _ 37.5 __ 54.8 _ 55.5 _ 102.2 __ 77.6 _ 11.2 _ 99.5

hudsonvalley21 _______ 15.5 _ 42.0 _ 57.0 __ 47.0 _ 51.0 __ 91.0 __ 64.0 _ 10.0 _ 89.0

DonSutherland.1 ______ 15.1 _ 34.3 _ 53.4 __ 48.9 _ 54.2 _ 112.6 __ 55.8 __ 7.3 _ 96.7

H2OTown__wx ________14.4 _ 23.2 _ 41.2 __ 44.4 _ 38.7 __ 93.4 __ 40.6 __ 5.4 _ 67.1

 

___ Consensus _____14.4 _33.7 _53.4 __48.9 _51.0 __95.8 __55.8 _10.0 _96.0

 

Stebo _______________ 12.5 _ 33.7 _ 50.0 __ 50.0 _ 57.3 __ 65.0 __ 50.5 __ 7.0 _ 72.5

wxallannj ____________ 12.3 _ 27.0 _ 33.0 __ 38.0 _ 43.0 __ 53.0 __ 58.0 _ 19.0 _ 57.0

BKViking _____________11.0 _ 33.0 _ 70.0 __ 40.0 _ 50.0 _ 110.0 __ 77.0 _ 10.0 _110.0

RJay ________________ 10.0 _ 40.0 _ 70.0 __ 50.0 _ 55.0 _120.0 __80.0 __ 6.0 _ 105.0

SD __________________10.0 _ 23.0 _ 45.0 __ 55.0 _ 67.0 _ 110.0 __ 85.0 __4.0 _ 87.0

RodneyS ______________8.1 _ 25.0 _ 35.8 __ 52.4 _ 45.7 __ 95.8 __ 52.1 _ 12.5 _ 57.0

SnoSki14 _____________ 2.0 __ 5.0 _ 35.0 __ 40.0 _ 45.0 __ 80.0 __ 55.0 _ 30.0_ 75.0

____________________________________________________________________________

15 entrants, the consensus is the median value (8th ranked).

Heaviest snowfall forecasts for each location are shown in bold.

Least snowfall is shown in italics.

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Continuing on with tracking of the anomalies and projections ...  

________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

______ (10d) _____+2.0 _+0.6 _+1.6 ___--5.6 _+6.7 _+7.4 ____ --1.8 _+4.5 _--4.1

______ (15d) _____--1.6 _--2.6 _--1.8 ___--5.1 _+2.8 _+6.6 ____ +1.2 _+5.6 _--1.6

______ (20d) _____--0.9 _--2.3 _--1.8 ___--4.0 _+1.8 _+6.4 ____ +3.1 _+5.8 _--1.1

______ (23d) _____--0.9 _--2.2 _--1.5 ___--3.9 _+1.6 _+5.3 ____ +4.6 _+6.2 _+0.5

______ (28d) _____--0.4 _--1.6 _--1.4 ___--1.4 _+1.6 _+4.8 ____ +6.8 _+6.9 _+1.1

______ (30d) _____ +0.2 _--1.1 _--1.0 ___--0.6 _+2.2 _+4.9 ____ +7.0 _+7.1 _+1.3

 

(Dec 3 _ confirmed anomalies posted)

(note: snowfall contest is closed for further entries now and a table of forecasts appears in previous post)

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for November 2017

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH___cent___ TOTALS_ 

 

RodneyS ____________________ 80 _ 36 _ 22 ___ 138 ___ 92 _ 98 _ 90 ___280 ___ 418 

Tom ________________________82 _ 62_ 76___ 220 ___ 92 _ 80 _ 18 ___ 190 ____ 410

 

___ Normal __________________96 _ 78 _80 ___ 254 ___88 _ 56 _ 02 ___ 146 ____ 400

 

SD _________________________ 84 _ 58 _ 70 ___ 212 ___ 88 _ 76 _ 22 ___ 188 _ 400

__________ (-7%) ____________ 78 _ 54 _ 65 ___ 197 ___ 82 _ 71 _ 20 ___ 173 ____ 370

H2OTown__wx _______________ 62 _ 48 _ 50 ___ 160 ___ 62 _ 96 _ 36 ___ 194 ____ 354

wxdude64 ___________________ 68 _ 40 _ 66 ___ 174 ___ 66 _ 82 _ 28 ___ 176 ____ 350

so_whats_happening __________ 46 _ 36 _ 44 ___ 126 ___ 62 _ 90 _ 44 ___ 196 ____ 322

 

___ Consensus _______________ 54 _ 34 _ 28 ___ 116 ___ 62 _ 96 _ 44 ___ 202 ____ 318

 

Roger Smith _________________ 74 _ 58 _ 56 ___ 188 ___ 54 _ 60 _ 10 ___ 124 ____ 312

dmillz25 _____________________54 _ 32 _ 26 ___ 112 ___ 82 _ 86 _ 22 ___ 190 ____ 302

Neckbeard93 ________________ 56 _ 16 _ 24 ___ 096 ___ 78 _ 86 _ 66 ___ 230 _ 326

_______________ (-9%) ______ 51 _ 14 _ 22 ___ 087 ___ 72 _ 78 _ 60 ___ 210 ____ 297

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 42 _ 12 _ 18 ___ 072 ___ 60 _ 76 _ 66 ___ 202 ____ 274   

wxallannj ___________________ 48 _ 20 _ 32 ___ 100 ___ 40 _ 72 _ 56 ___ 168 ____ 268

BKViking ____________________ 44 _ 16 _ 18 ___ 078 ___ 50 _ 94 _ 44 ___ 188 ____ 266 

DonSutherland.1 ______________24 _ 06 _ 12 ___ 042 ___ 54 _ 36 _ 84 ___ 174 ____ 216

RJay _______________________ 24 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 024 ___ 28 _ 64 _ 82 ___ 174 ____ 198

SnoSki14 ____________________00 _ 00 _ 00 ___ 000 ___ 58 _ 64 _ 42 ___ 164 ____ 164   

 

 

Final scoring for Nov 2017 western and all nine contests

Note: DEN and PHX scores are boosted to reach the "minimum progression" of scoring with 50 set as max. Raw score max would be only 30 and 35.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank )

 

wxallannj _________________50 _ 40 _ 46 _____ 136 _________ 404 (= 7)

wxdude64 ________________ 00 _ 40 _ 96 _____ 136 _________ 486 (= 4)

SD ______________________ 30 _ 30 _ 84 _ 144

____________ (-7%) _______ 28 _ 28 _ 78 _____ 134 _________ 504 (= 3)

RodneyS _________________ 40 _ 50 _ 24 _____ 114 _________ 532 (= 1)

Roger Smith ______________ 00 _ 40 _ 58 _____ 098 _________ 410 (= 6)

 

___ Normal ___________ 15 _ 15 _ 74 ____ 104 _______ 504 (= t3)

 

Tom _____________________12 _ 18 _ 68 _____ 098 _________ 508 (= 2)

H2OTown_wx _____________10 _ 21 _ 60 _____ 091 _________ 445 (= 5)

BKViking _________________ 21 _ 15 _ 52 _____ 088 _________ 354 (=11)

 

Consensus ________________21 _ 21 _ 46 _____ 088 _________ 406 (= 7)

 

hudsonvalley21 ____________21 _ 21 _ 40 _____ 082 _________ 356 (=10)

RJay ____________________ 24 _ 12 _ 44 _____ 080 _________ 278 (=13)

Neckbeard93 ______________30 _ 18 _ 40 _ 088

_____________ (-9%) ______27 _ 16 _ 36 _____ 079 _________ 376 (= 9) 

so_whats_happening _______ 10 _ 24 _ 44 _____ 078 _________ 400 (= 8)

DonSutherland.1 ___________35 _ 10 _ 12 _____ 057 _________ 273 (=14) 

dmillz25 __________________00 _ 27 _ 00 _____ 027 _________ 329 (=12)

SnoSki14 ________________  05 _ 00 _ 14 _____ 019 _________ 183 (=15)

 

 

Extreme Forecasts

 

DCA __ win for Tom (+1.1) and Normal, "no decision" for SD (+1.0) due to 7% score reduction

NYC __ win for Tom (+0.8) and Normal

BOS __ win for Tom (+0.2) and Normal.

ORD __ no longer qualifies as an extreme forecast, third lowest forecast was high score.

ATL __ high score around consensus, does not qualify.

IAH __ at +4.9 is a win for RodneyS (+5.4), loss for DonSutherland.1 (+5.7)

DEN __ win for wxallannj (+2.5) 

PHX __ win for RodneyS (+2.8)

SEA __ win for wxdude64 (+1.1)

 

UPDATED EXTREME FORECAST TABLE (2017)

RJay _____________ 8-0

___Normal ________ 7-1

Wxdude64 _________6-0

rainsucks __________6-1

DonSutherland1 ____ 6-4

Wxallannj _________ 5-1

SD _______________4-0***

Damage in Tolland __ 4-0*

so_whats_happening _4-0

Roger Smith ________4-0

Neckbeard93 _______4-2

Stebo _____________4-3

Tom ______________ 3-0

Prestige Worldwide __ 3-0

RodneyS __________ 3-0

H2OTown__Wx _____ 2-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

BKViking __________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-1

snoski14 __________ 2-1

JBG ______________ 1-0

hudsonvalley21 _____1-0

CCM ______________1-1

____________________________________________

* no decision for DCA July 2017

** no decision for DEN Oct 2017

*** no decision for DCA Nov 2017

(No decision occurs when an extreme forecast fails to reach high score only due to a late penalty).

 

[Roger Smith]

The summary that was in this post is now superseded by the more detailed table of annual scoring found in post 31.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

I have finished moving and posted final anomalies (several posts back) ... will be hooked up on home net late 4th, finish scoring then.

In the above, all will gain 4 pts DCA,2 pts NYC, 2 pts IAH, and most 8 for ORD (some colder fx will lose 8 there). All will lose 4 BOS and 6 SEA (wxdude64 only loses 2 there). ATL points change by 4 (based on 2.0, actual 2.2). Will have to check back on adjustmentts to all-low-scoring DEN, PHX, these scores may not change much.

All other updates to come. Scoring order not likely to change much).