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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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Looks like ORD tied its record low of 18, set in 1986.  It's a rather mild record, as record lows on surrounding dates are generally 10-15.

RFD set a new record low of 14; old record was 15 set in 1973.  Also a mild record, as record lows on surrounding dates are generally 5-10.

INL dropped to -13 yesterday (just before midnight)...old record was 0 in 1979.  And, INL dropped to -14 this morning...old record was -6 in 1986.  Wow.  

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12 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Somebody light the torch. I was promised mega warm anomaLIES and golfing wx for days this month^_^  

With teens for a low I was prepared for a day of it raining down (barely any have come down -shrugs?) leaves.. Not a full day of LES on November 10th.

This might knock them down

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.thumb.png.c5f4d8c9ee41672920a2a4ccc20ebe09.png

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21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Always have to respect what a 50+ degree Lake Michigan can do to boundary layer temps, but if anything, 850 mb temps look a little colder this time compared to that November 11-12, 2013 setup.  Similar to then, the marine influence is going to get overwhelmed and allow for snow all the way to the shore.  Bigger issue in this case is the more transient nature.

And apparently a much drier air mass, as the result here was 1/34 of the 11-12-13 event, LOL. Still, slippery driving and enough white to say Hello winter! even at the lakeshore this year. I'll run with it as a positive sign.  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
135 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             4 NNW EVANSTON          42.10N 87.73W
11/10/2017  M2.0 INCH        COOK               IL   COCORAHS

            LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FELL BETWEEN 9 AM AND 12 PM.


&&

$$

C

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Is anyone in the GR Michigan area buying into the Nam 3K or 12K for Sunday? It’s been consistently showing 1-3” for Sunday morning into the afternoon for about 2 days now, and is about 36 hours out now. GFS shows nothing, but isn’t the Nam more reliable inside 30 hours of an event?? If so, Nam has been insistent on 1-3” for Sunday. 

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I was just thinking about this. Toledo was down to 29 degrees this evening/afternoon. It's even colder right now in southern Michigan. Not much of a warm-up seems to be in the medium-range models except for Thursday to Friday. Even that would seem like a relatively brief time above 50 degrees for NW Ohio. Things have changed much since October, when Toledo was at 4.9F above average, probably more than one standard deviation above normal.

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49 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Looking very likely for a colder than normal November. Ryan Maue even tweeted earlier “maybe this winter will be like 2013-2014?” 12z Euro show very cold air coming down once again in the medium-long range 

Looking more and more likely for at least a top 20 cold November. If it's anything like 2013-2014, we won't see spring until May at the earliest. Just an awful stretch of weather, I don't know why I live here honestly.

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1 minute ago, cmillzz said:

Looking more and more likely for at least a top 20 cold November. If it's anything like 2013-2014, we won't see spring until May at the earliest. Just an awful stretch of weather, I don't know why I live here honestly.

Nah you won't see spring until June. Indiana is the new Alaska.

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On 11/8/2017 at 7:44 PM, cmillzz said:

The highest temp in my 15 day outlook is 49. And given the recent high temp busts, it's looking increasingly likely that South Bend may not hit 50 degrees again this month (and probably not until next year).

Dude, get a grip (or move).
 
Wednesday
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 51.
 
But just to rub a little salt...
 
RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT 
SOUTH BEND TODAY. THIS TIES THE RECORD OF 31 SET IN 1933.
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14 minutes ago, IWXwx said:
Dude, get a grip (or move).
 
Wednesday
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 51.
 
But just rub a little salt...
 

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT 
SOUTH BEND TODAY. THIS TIES THE RECORD OF 31 SET IN 1933.

Lies.

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DTW tied & thus broke the record low today of 19F, originally set in 1913. We only had a trace of snow here, but unlike the other 4 days with a trace of snow/sleet from Oct 27-Nov 1, there were some legit snow showers last night. Left a light wind whipped dusting of snow on the rooftops and such but not quite 0.1". The dry arctic air makes it smell like mid-winter, not early November. The high temp today of 30F missed the record low max by 2F but only 9 times on record has the first sub-freezing high occured on or before Nov 10.

23316425_10109295899993713_9625730603563

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:
Dude, get a grip (or move).
 
Wednesday
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
Thursday
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 51.
 
But just to rub a little salt...
 

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT 
SOUTH BEND TODAY. THIS TIES THE RECORD OF 31 SET IN 1933.

Well the highest temp in my TWC 15 day forecast is 48, so NWS has other ideas I guess. 

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This morning's low temperature of 13.8F at YYZ, broke the old record of 15.9F set back in 1973. Tomorrow's record is likely to break as well with a forecast low of 12.2F tonight, and a record of 17.0F set back in 1937. 

Picked up less than half a inch this morning as well. Looked nice!

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24 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Well the highest temp in my TWC 15 day forecast is 48, so NWS has other ideas I guess. 

If the big storm on the Euro and GFS pans out, then late week could get fairly mild, at least briefly.   Warmup of lesser magnitude prior to that.  I'd look for your forecast temps to trend upward in coming days.

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