November 2017 Discussion

[SchaumburgStormer]

Got down to 20 this morning. 

[cyclone77]

22 here, coldest of the season.  What leaves that are left on various trees around the neighborhood are raining down this morning.

[RCNYILWX]

As Hoosier wrote about in an earlier post, definitely becoming more confident in the LES for late tomorrow night into Friday morning for NWI probably into Illinois before subsidence likely ends the snow. The cons to the setup continue to be the lower than ideal inversion heights and also very dry antecedent air with the Arctic high. This includes aloft, as soundings indicate saturation only through the lower portion of the DGZ with very dry air above it, which will likely result in small flake size.

On the other hand, the excellent thermodynamics with 20-25C 850-lake delta Ts and ~500 j/kg lake induced CAPE should overcome the cons. I think some minor accums are probable, but anywhere getting over an inch will depend on the band being temporarily less progressive as it gradually pivots westward, which is still uncertain.

In addition to the LES, the cold is looking big league tomorrow night/Fri AM particularly on the MOS guidance, with lows around 10 in typical cold spots in IL if the MAV/MET verify.

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[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

As Hoosier wrote about in an earlier post, definitely becoming more confident in the LES for late tomorrow night into Friday morning for NWI probably into Illinois before subsidence likely ends the snow. The cons to the setup continue to be the lower than ideal inversion heights and also very dry antecedent air with the Arctic high. This includes aloft, as soundings indicate saturation only through the lower portion of the DGZ with very dry air above it, which will likely result in small flake size.

On the other hand, the excellent thermodynamics with 20-25C 850-lake delta Ts and ~500 j/kg lake induced CAPE should overcome the cons. I think some minor accums are probable, but anywhere getting over an inch will depend on the band being temporarily less progressive as it gradually pivots westward, which is still uncertain.

In addition to the LES, the cold is looking big league tomorrow night/Fri AM particularly on the MOS guidance, with lows around 10 in typical cold spots in IL if the MAV/MET verify.

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I'm probably more interested in this than I should be, but other than the freak October 2000 thing, I don't recall getting enough lake snow to accumulate this early in the season.  There have been events in early- mid November of course, but the ones I remember were more on the other side of the lake.  Plus this is one of the things that is still prone to busting given the small scale nature, so there's the element of the unknown.

I think the general idea of broadbrushing light amounts in LOT's lakeside areas is good.  Just too many uncertainties.  If it does hang up somewhere for any length of time, then maybe something like 2-5" comes into play?

[michsnowfreak]

Low at DTW this morning 28F, first official freeze of the season (yet we have had 4 days with a trace of snow/sleet lol). We will be flirting with record lows Friday and Saturday. LOL at rainsucks mega November blowtorch

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, blackrock said:

Beautiful color clinging on here as well. It is so nice to have some sunshine to highlight the colors now.

Did you move? Nice neighborhood there.

 

 

haha no I didn't move. Just a neighborhood right outside my office.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'm probably more interested in this than I should be, but other than the freak October 2000 thing, I don't recall getting enough lake snow to accumulate this early in the season.  There have been events in early- mid November of course, but the ones I remember were more on the other side of the lake.  Plus this is one of the things that is still prone to busting given the small scale nature, so there's the element of the unknown.

I think the general idea of broadbrushing light amounts in LOT's lakeside areas is good.  Just too many uncertainties.  If it does hang up somewhere for any length of time, then maybe something like 2-5" comes into play?

When you're at the base of the lake, I'm not sure which side is the other side, but I agree that early LES events with a more N to S vector are kinda unique. That's more of a later in winter scenario. Ofc, 4 yrs ago this Monday was the best in recent memory and my work place just happened to end up ground zero - which was a very sweet start to that winter for me personally

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

When you're at the base of the lake, I'm not sure which side is the other side, but I agree that early LES events with a more N to S vector are kinda unique. That's more of a later in winter scenario. Ofc, 4 yrs ago this Monday was the best in recent memory and my work place just happened to end up ground zero - which was a very sweet start to that winter for me personally

"Other side" I was referring to was La Porte, Berrien, etc.

Def remember that 2013 event.  In fact, went back and looked at that setup last night.  What I don't remember is the forecasts leading up to it, like a day or two before.  Was anywhere near that much forecasted?

[RogueWaves]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

"Other side" I was referring to was La Porte, Berrien, etc.

Def remember that 2013 event.  In fact, went back and looked at that setup last night.  What I don't remember is the forecasts leading up to it, like a day or two before.  Was anywhere near that much forecasted?

I didn't save any AFD txt's from the days prior which tells me no, or I would've saved it. The day before, NOAA/WPC had a little spot of hatched snow over basically the coast of Michiana and the morning of the 12th IWX had a 100% Heavy Snow icon in the local for St. Joseph. By noon 17" was already reported, and it was pounding for a while at the peak. I think it was a classic over-performer situation. 

[cmillzz]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Low at DTW this morning 28F, first official freeze of the season (yet we have had 4 days with a trace of snow/sleet lol). We will be flirting with record lows Friday and Saturday. LOL at rainsucks mega November blowtorch

Looking to be one of the coldest Novembers on record instead.

[cmillzz]

GEFS ensembles look particularly brutal as well. East trough west ridge regime doesn't want to die (don't think it ever will).

[cmillzz]

17 hours ago, Stebo said:

I will bet everything I own that wherever this guy is in IN, it won't be 40s or below for the next 15 days.

The highest temp in my 15 day outlook is 49. And given the recent high temp busts, it's looking increasingly likely that South Bend may not hit 50 degrees again this month (and probably not until next year).

[Chicago Storm]

The highest temp in my 15 day outlook is 49. And given the recent high temp busts, it's looking increasingly likely that South Bend may not hit 50 degrees again this month (and probably not until next year).

lol

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

The highest temp in my 15 day outlook is 49. And given the recent high temp busts, it's looking increasingly likely that South Bend may not hit 50 degrees again this month (and probably not until next year).

Probably never again

[IWXwx]

[Hoosier]

53 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

Looking to be one of the coldest Novembers on record instead.

Let's use top 10 coldest Novembers at South Bend as the cutoff for "one of the coldest."  In order to crack the coldest 10, SBN would need to finish November with -6F departure.  Through 7 days, it is -1.5

[LoveSN+]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Let's use top 10 coldest Novembers at South Bend as the cutoff for "one of the coldest."  In order to crack the coldest 10, SBN would need to finish November with -6F departure.  Through 7 days, it is -1.5

All aboard the cold November hype train. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Does anyone else feel like the western Great Lakes/upper Midwest are overdue for a really big storm of some type? High-end, high-impact, multifaceted (some combination of severe wx, winter wx and synoptic wind). Modeled with enough agreement that it will occur for several days of hype and strongly worded forecasts, but with enough uncertainty with regards to track and specific impacts to keep it interesting.

Seems to me that the last time we saw something that approaches this description was 2011 or so. Sure we have had a few active periods and some locally significant events (for example the Rochelle-Fairdale tornado of 2015) but nothing that really rises to the level of what I described.

Of course I've been saying this for the last few falls/winters/springs now that we are due for a big dog, but it seems like anytime the potential for one shows up on the models it fizzles/underperforms in some way. Doesn't look like it's in the cards in the near future, either. What happened to that torch/gradient?

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Looking to be one of the coldest Novembers on record instead.

Lol I wouldn't go that far. 

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Looking to be one of the coldest Novembers on record instead.

If your records only go as far back as November 2015, then yes, I agree. Record cold November!

[michsnowfreak]

Took a walk at lunch time. Last leef peeping of the year. With mid-winter cold coming in early November the leaves will continue to rain down. One of those rare 0.0 skycover days at DTW.

[harrisale]

All of the bright yellow trees dropped their leaves today. Windless morning so there were perfect circles of leaves around them. 

Low temp forecasts overperformed last night and are currently doing so again with no wind tonight. Should cool the ground a touch before tomorrow's snow, likely the first fun event of the season and slightly earlier than usual this year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Was digging through some record low records since Friday most areas will break theres and found this outbreak.

Check out the low temps in the year 1880. Wasn't the reporting station the water at that time, and isn't Lake Erie on average in the 50s during that time? That week was insanity! From Nov 19th to the 26th there were 7 record lows ranging from 12 to 3 degrees! 

http://www.intellicast.com/local/history.aspx?location=USNY0181

Found this about the November 1880 cold outbreak. It affected much of this forum, -9 at Marquette. 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/11/if-you-think-its-been-cold-lately.html

[Jonger]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Let's use top 10 coldest Novembers at South Bend as the cutoff for "one of the coldest."  In order to crack the coldest 10, SBN would need to finish November with -6F departure.  Through 7 days, it is -1.5

There are too many up and down temps over the next 2 weeks. I doubt a top 20 is in store.

[Hoosier]

LOT is going with up to 1" near the lake. Could envision somebody coming in a bit higher but there's no real reason to think substantially different at this point.  It should be down well into the 20s here for several hours before it starts snowing so I wonder what the roads will be like if it's sorta just light to moderate intensity.

[OHweather]

Half the trees in my area still have leaves on them, and tomorrow might not hit 30.  Very unusual combo with near-record cold quickly following a top 10 warm October. 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, OHweather said:

Half the trees in my area still have leaves on them, and tomorrow might not hit 30.  Very unusual combo with near-record cold quickly following a top 10 warm October. 

Same here, even some green remaining on some so it will be interesting to see how they respond to this cold.

Speaking of record cold, the record low for ORD is 18 for tomorrow, and it looks like it could be close.

[Hoosier]

I'm gonna think slightly optimistic and go with a couple inches on coldest surfaces. May not be the super low water content LES that often occurs, but there should still be some fluff factor despite some DGZ issues. Given the probable transient nature, going to need the main band to be decently organized tomorrow, and I think it will be organized enough with at least some temporary moderate rates in the band.  12z ARW/NMM both have .1" or greater qpf here, and it will be coming into HRRR/RAP range a bit later.

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

LOT is going with up to 1" near the lake. Could envision somebody coming in a bit higher but there's no real reason to think substantially different at this point.  It should be down well into the 20s here for several hours before it starts snowing so I wonder what the roads will be like if it's sorta just light to moderate intensity.

 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm gonna think slightly optimistic and go with a couple inches on coldest surfaces. May not be the super low water content LES that often occurs, but there should still be some fluff factor despite some DGZ issues. Given the probable transient nature, going to need the main band to be decently organized tomorrow, and I think it will be organized enough with at least some temporary moderate rates in the band.  12z ARW/NMM both have .1" or greater qpf here, and it will be coming into HRRR/RAP range a bit later.

GRR has a snowfall map with ~1-3" amts in northern Berrien. Last winter due to the warmth of the water the immediate shoreline could not score more than graupel pellets until the very tail-end of the Dec cold/snowy spell, so I'm not holding my breath on this 1st chance of LES. I am watching tho to see how this does and whether it means a new season gives a much better result. Not expecting much, so if this over-performs I'll take it as a good sign going forward 

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

 

GRR has a snowfall map with ~1-3" amts in northern Berrien. Last winter due to the warmth of the water the immediate shoreline could not score more than graupel pellets until the very tail-end of the Dec cold/snowy spell, so I'm not holding my breath on this 1st chance of LES. I am watching tho to see how this does and whether it means a new season gives a much better result. Not expecting much, so if this over-performs I'll take it as a good sign going forward 

Always have to respect what a 50+ degree Lake Michigan can do to boundary layer temps, but if anything, 850 mb temps look a little colder this time compared to that November 11-12, 2013 setup.  Similar to then, the marine influence is going to get overwhelmed and allow for snow all the way to the shore.  Bigger issue in this case is the more transient nature.