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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Might have a shot at some flakes off the lake here on Friday morning as the flow becomes more favorable.  

Weird to see the 18z NAM not really spitting out precip off of southern Lake Michigan.  Inversion heights don't look the greatest but with lake-850 mb delta T building into the low or potentially mid 20C range, there's no way there won't be lake response.

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25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Weird to see the 18z NAM not really spitting out precip off of southern Lake Michigan.  Inversion heights don't look the greatest but with lake-850 mb delta T building into the low or potentially mid 20C range, there's no way there won't be lake response.

I haven't looked closely, but iwon't it be a short event as winds quickly swing?

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On 11/5/2017 at 0:06 PM, michsnowfreak said:

So when is this mega blowtorch will possible all time record November highs that was promised to Jonger arriving? :lol:

Pucker your lips and rapidly blow out air at the same time.

That sound you hear is what happened to the record warm airmass.

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4 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I haven't looked closely, but iwon't it be a short event as winds quickly swing?

Yeah, should be pretty transient.  Could swing from the Michigan side all the way over into Illinois/Wisconsin shoreline area eventually.  Also should be able to get snow all the way to the shore given the magnitude of the airmass.

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2 hours ago, Jonger said:

Huh... it looks completely seasonal.

GFS shows cold front after cold front after cold front. It's absolutely ridiculous, never seen so many cold fronts in a 384 hour period. Not sure what's going on with this pattern, but it seems like every warm up fails to materialize. Also, average high is still in the 50s, and all of this week looks to be barely in the 40s with a few days in the 30s. Never have I seen such a foul pattern in early November.

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8 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

GFS shows cold front after cold front after cold front. It's absolutely ridiculous, never seen so many cold fronts in a 384 hour period. Not sure what's going on with this pattern, but it seems like every warm up fails to materialize. Also, average high is still in the 50s, and all of this week looks to be barely in the 40s with a few days in the 30s. Never have I seen such a foul pattern in early November.

What happens out ahead of cold fronts? Warmups.  There will be some nicer average/above average days to come, but just have to get through the weekend.

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Growing increasingly confident in a period of LES Friday, with a decent shot at some sticking snow.  Negative factors as mentioned (fairly low inversion heights, background drying/subsidence, and transient nature of band as it swings west) but delta T of 23-25C under what inversion there is, good fetch and some potential for mesolow development.  I've seen heavy snow off of southern Lake Michigan in some other setups with the inversion around 5-6 thousand feet when other factors are favorable. I'm not saying it happens this time (and there's the transient nature in this case) but I think there could be some decent bursts/rates in that band.  

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9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Growing increasingly confident in a period of LES Friday, with a decent shot at some sticking snow.  Negative factors as mentioned (fairly low inversion heights, background drying/subsidence, and transient nature of band as it swings west) but delta T of 23-25C under what inversion there is, good fetch and some potential for mesolow development.  I've seen heavy snow off of southern Lake Michigan in some other setups with the inversion around 5-6 thousand feet when other factors are favorable. I'm not saying it happens this time (and there's the transient nature in this case) but I think there could be some decent bursts/rates in that band.  

I work in Berrien Cnty, so I should catch some flakes flying if not stacking. Actually looks more favorable for yby south a bit.

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22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I work in Berrien Cnty, so I should catch some flakes flying if not stacking. Actually looks more favorable for yby south a bit.

I'm not sure how long it will last around here.  Possible it's not more than a few hours but will have to see how it develops, and you know this stuff is capable of throwing a curveball.  It could be somewhat longer lasting to my east, say over toward LaPorte county.  Not often that we get something on November 10 that doesn't have precip type concerns closer to the lake, but this looks to be an exception. Temps right at the shore could be at/just above freezing, but not enough of a melt layer for rain. 

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1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Long range 18z GFS doesn't look nearly as nightmarish at least. We'll see what the 0z run shows...

My 15 day TWC outlook shows nothing but days in the 40s, so this November may end up being well below normal.

I rarely do this, but I guarantee it won't be wall to wall 40s for 15 days.  And if I'm wrong, I will come back and completely own it.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I rarely do this, but I guarantee it won't be wall to wall 40s for 15 days.  And if I'm wrong, I will come back and completely own it.

I will bet everything I own that wherever this guy is in IN, it won't be 40s or below for the next 15 days.

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