Hoosier Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Might have a shot at some flakes off the lake here on Friday morning as the flow becomes more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 ORD had their first freeze this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Only 5 days in but that gradient look is very obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Only 5 days in but that gradient look is very obvious Wowza @ MT! If that was centered over IL, 50F and RN would be beach wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Yeah, Cut Bank MT had a high/low of 11/-8 on November 4, with 4” of snow on the ground. Not bad. Normals for the date are 46/24. Of course, Cut Bank often warms into the 40s and 50s in January. They have a crazy chinook climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Might have a shot at some flakes off the lake here on Friday morning as the flow becomes more favorable. Weird to see the 18z NAM not really spitting out precip off of southern Lake Michigan. Inversion heights don't look the greatest but with lake-850 mb delta T building into the low or potentially mid 20C range, there's no way there won't be lake response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Weird to see the 18z NAM not really spitting out precip off of southern Lake Michigan. Inversion heights don't look the greatest but with lake-850 mb delta T building into the low or potentially mid 20C range, there's no way there won't be lake response. I haven't looked closely, but iwon't it be a short event as winds quickly swing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 0:06 PM, michsnowfreak said: So when is this mega blowtorch will possible all time record November highs that was promised to Jonger arriving? Pucker your lips and rapidly blow out air at the same time. That sound you hear is what happened to the record warm airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 On 11/4/2017 at 7:34 PM, cmillzz said: This month is shaping up to be one of the most foul Novembers in recent history. Euro looks particularly vile for the next 10 days. Just absolute misery. Huh... it looks completely seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I haven't looked closely, but iwon't it be a short event as winds quickly swing? Yeah, should be pretty transient. Could swing from the Michigan side all the way over into Illinois/Wisconsin shoreline area eventually. Also should be able to get snow all the way to the shore given the magnitude of the airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Fall colors at Oakwoods Nature Preserve in Findlay earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 With that deluge yesterday, Dayton International Airport is up to 12.65" above normal precipitation for the year. Edit: and maybe La Nina winter (upcoming) is already living up to its promise of greater-than-average Ohio Valley precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Chinook said: With that deluge yesterday, Dayton International Airport is up to 12.65" above normal precipitation for the year. Local met mentioned this is the 9th wettest year on record so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Jonger said: Huh... it looks completely seasonal. GFS shows cold front after cold front after cold front. It's absolutely ridiculous, never seen so many cold fronts in a 384 hour period. Not sure what's going on with this pattern, but it seems like every warm up fails to materialize. Also, average high is still in the 50s, and all of this week looks to be barely in the 40s with a few days in the 30s. Never have I seen such a foul pattern in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, cmillzz said: GFS shows cold front after cold front after cold front. It's absolutely ridiculous, never seen so many cold fronts in a 384 hour period. Not sure what's going on with this pattern, but it seems like every warm up fails to materialize. Also, average high is still in the 50s, and all of this week looks to be barely in the 40s with a few days in the 30s. Never have I seen such a foul pattern in early November. What happens out ahead of cold fronts? Warmups. There will be some nicer average/above average days to come, but just have to get through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Jim Martin said: Fall colors at Oakwoods Nature Preserve in Findlay earlier this afternoon. Gorgeous! We are just about past peak but thats my favorite time. Still lots of good color. Took on the way home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Oh Jacques. I see you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 NWS Cleveland @NWSCLE 10m There were 10 tornadoes confirmed by NWS Cleveland from Sunday's storms, 9 in Northern Ohio and 1 in NW Pennsylvania. #clewx #ohwx #pawx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 A local tv station showed this graphic last night. The spread will only grow wider over the next four days as last year remained warm and this week we'll fall into the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Growing increasingly confident in a period of LES Friday, with a decent shot at some sticking snow. Negative factors as mentioned (fairly low inversion heights, background drying/subsidence, and transient nature of band as it swings west) but delta T of 23-25C under what inversion there is, good fetch and some potential for mesolow development. I've seen heavy snow off of southern Lake Michigan in some other setups with the inversion around 5-6 thousand feet when other factors are favorable. I'm not saying it happens this time (and there's the transient nature in this case) but I think there could be some decent bursts/rates in that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Clear blue skies and crisp early November air made for gorgeous scenes of the late-clinging color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 9 hours ago, Hoosier said: Growing increasingly confident in a period of LES Friday, with a decent shot at some sticking snow. Negative factors as mentioned (fairly low inversion heights, background drying/subsidence, and transient nature of band as it swings west) but delta T of 23-25C under what inversion there is, good fetch and some potential for mesolow development. I've seen heavy snow off of southern Lake Michigan in some other setups with the inversion around 5-6 thousand feet when other factors are favorable. I'm not saying it happens this time (and there's the transient nature in this case) but I think there could be some decent bursts/rates in that band. I work in Berrien Cnty, so I should catch some flakes flying if not stacking. Actually looks more favorable for yby south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Riverside Park in Findlay earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Clear blue skies and crisp early November air made for gorgeous scenes of the late-clinging color. Beautiful color clinging on here as well. It is so nice to have some sunshine to highlight the colors now. Did you move? Nice neighborhood there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 22 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I work in Berrien Cnty, so I should catch some flakes flying if not stacking. Actually looks more favorable for yby south a bit. I'm not sure how long it will last around here. Possible it's not more than a few hours but will have to see how it develops, and you know this stuff is capable of throwing a curveball. It could be somewhat longer lasting to my east, say over toward LaPorte county. Not often that we get something on November 10 that doesn't have precip type concerns closer to the lake, but this looks to be an exception. Temps right at the shore could be at/just above freezing, but not enough of a melt layer for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Thurs/Fri cold shot is looking pretty legitimate. It's going to feel like a mid-late December kind of day. Thinking we see at least a half inch accumulation when the front passes Thursday and some LES drifts in Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Long range 18z GFS doesn't look nearly as nightmarish at least. We'll see what the 0z run shows... My 15 day TWC outlook shows nothing but days in the 40s, so this November may end up being well below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: Long range 18z GFS doesn't look nearly as nightmarish at least. We'll see what the 0z run shows... My 15 day TWC outlook shows nothing but days in the 40s, so this November may end up being well below normal. I rarely do this, but I guarantee it won't be wall to wall 40s for 15 days. And if I'm wrong, I will come back and completely own it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I rarely do this, but I guarantee it won't be wall to wall 40s for 15 days. And if I'm wrong, I will come back and completely own it. I will bet everything I own that wherever this guy is in IN, it won't be 40s or below for the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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