RogueWaves Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 10/28/2017 at 0:59 PM, Hoosier said: The last few runs of the CFS have the hella gradient look for November. Ofc it's too early to be on the cold side. I'd consider it a win if we see a strong CF or two deliver a favorable LES set- up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 4 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Ofc it's too early to be on the cold side. I'd consider it a win if we see a strong CF or two deliver a favorable LES set- up Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient. As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient. As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina. Funny, I was thinking about that very Nov. Remember chasing a storm that came out of CO around the 7th and dropped up to 18" in central portions of the Mitt. I was naive about early season lake shadow at that young age. Thought the snow might be heavier near the coast with a NE wind off of Huron so went that way, only to be disappointed to find out it was rain along the shore. Shoulda went inland, lol That Nov also featured an historic bliz for the UP. I think that was closer to Thanksgiving tho iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Looks like another warmer than average month. The exception is far northwestern portions of the sub. This type of gradient pattern would be great in January, but in November we will likely be on average a few degrees above normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 It was never looking to be a cooler than normal month ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: Today's run got even more pronounced with the gradient. As far as that gradient, really haven't seen something like it's advertising for November since November 2003 (that was a warm neutral winter though). Probably have to go back to November 1985 for the last time something like it happened in a cold neutral/La Nina. If we can keep up the gradient look for most of the winter it could be a fun winter! One thing to point out for anyone who praises the cfs, in a few days time it went from showing portions of Canada to have +4C or warmer in Nov to some of that same area now showing -4C or colder. That is a huge difference (in other words...dont praise the cfs lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 It's looking more and more like South Central IN/Central OH will see their first DAB of the season tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, I like the beginning of a snowpack being laid down north of the border. Just hoping that the weekend warmth doesn't torch the pack up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Final CFS run for the month. A couple questions here. One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Final CFS run for the month. A couple questions here. One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out? The $64,000 question. If several of the past winters are any indication, it's ORD FTW. Honestly though, probably Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 33 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Final CFS run for the month. A couple questions here. One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out? First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 minute ago, WxMatt21 said: First of all, there are some positives to this scenario verbatim. Cold air and snowpack building to our north and west, with the most extreme warm anomalies well to our south. Gradient is close enough that a little wiggle room could keep the blowtorch at bay. Also, this look is far kinder than last year's composite at this time... Totally agree. It would be a lot more concerning for winter if we had widespread warmer than average conditions extending throughout Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Last November was a total dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I'm happy to see the warmest anomalies next week will miss Tropical. I want his palms to endure maximum cold damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 While I'm definitely on the snow train starting November 1st, I can't really complain about laying down all that snow and cold in Canada where we need it. I said this recently and I will say it again. 1st of all, November average is 1.5" of snow while the following 4 months average 40" of snow. Also, in November temperatures and snow don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Being that it's the beginning of Winter, it can go a variety of ways - including we can have very cold november's with little snow or very warm november's with sneak snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: While I'm definitely on the snow train starting November 1st, I can't really complain about laying down all that snow and cold in Canada where we need it. I said this recently and I will say it again. 1st of all, November average is 1.5" of snow while the following 4 months average 40" of snow. Also, in November temperatures and snow don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Being that it's the beginning of Winter, it can go a variety of ways - including we can have very cold november's with little snow or very warm november's with sneak snowstorms. Snowmobile trails open December 1st..... I want snow in November, lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I'm happy to see the warmest anomalies next week will miss Tropical. I want his palms to endure maximum cold damage.Can't have cold damage if they're boxed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 The Weather Channel just messaged me asking for permission to use my video live on air and online with full rights to my name. Weather Nation already aired my video on live TV earlier this morning! What a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: I'm happy to see the warmest anomalies next week will miss Tropical rainsucks. I want his palms to endure maximum cold damage. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Final CFS run for the month. A couple questions here. One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out? I'd put it across the northern plains (SD/MN). Seems too early in the season to have it set up further south since there isn't any higher pressures in Canada, and the snowpack still isn't established across the southern provinces. Also this seems to be where most of the storms are tracking right now, so that would make even more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 7 hours ago, Jonger said: Snowmobile trails open December 1st..... I want snow in November, lots of it. Dec 1st?? Oh yeah, cuz peeps are in the woods armed and dangerous the last 2 wks of November! In '95 I had a new sled and tons of early Nov snow, so we'd head out right after dark bout 6 pm. Avoided ticking off the orange coats that way.....B-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 10/27/2017 at 4:16 PM, Jonger said: We are looking at a well below normal start to November. We have had awful luck with Novembers over the last 10 years... It's about damn time we get a cold one. Didn't YBY get a pretty big snowstorm in November recently? Plus, I distinctly remember freezing my butt off in November 2013 and 2014 (and complaining about it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 58 minutes ago, Powerball said: Didn't YBY get a pretty big snowstorm in November recently? Plus, I distinctly remember freezing my butt off in November 2013 and 2014 (and complaining about it). https://www.weather.gov/dtx/151121winterstorm Couldn't be so unlucky to get 15.5" of snow in a snowstorm in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/151121winterstorm Couldn't be so unlucky to get 15.5" of snow in a snowstorm in November. That's right. In fact, I think he said it was the biggest snowstorm he's seen since 1999 (if not ever). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Just now, Powerball said: That's right. In fact, I think he said it was the biggest snowstorm he's seen since 1999 (if not ever). Biggest storm in White Lake's history going back to 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 November 2013 and 2014 were extremely cold (for November) and 2015 torched but then had that huge snowstorm that dropped 4-17" snow in SE MI. To me November is the transition into full on winter, but i do not expect a very wintry month, just a taste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Another model in the gradient camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 11 hours ago, Stebo said: https://www.weather.gov/dtx/151121winterstorm Couldn't be so unlucky to get 15.5" of snow in a snowstorm in November. I came in closer to 17 inches. I'd trade a warm month with a single storm for a cold month and a bunch of smaller snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Jonger said: I came in closer to 17 inches. I'd trade a warm month with a single storm for a cold month and a bunch of smaller snows. Lol of course you'd **** on 17" of snow. Keep on trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 36 minutes ago, Stebo said: Lol of course you'd **** on 17" of snow. Keep on trolling Given his posting history, I totally believe he'd make that trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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