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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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5 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Beautiful morning sky after a wild and windy night.  Went to bed it was 32, temp spiked during the overnight to 41, now down to 37.  Lost probably an inch of snow.  Forecast is for 45 before it starts to fall back, so after 33" of snow and 1 month to the date with snow cover, I'm not sure what'll be left after today other than piles.  Winds ramp up again later today into tonight but should target mostly the Keweenaw and shoreline...

Certainly not the look I was expecting heading into the first part of December, but it's beautiful and I love it nonetheless.

IMG_3796.thumb.JPG.6b5b091fd09ec39dfee7826f3317109c.JPG

Strange that a winter wonderland was in place on Halloween and you will start December with bare ground, but it doesn't matter as you have more than a dozen feet of snow still to come 

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Up to 60 at ORD.  Second one in the past 5 days.

I took a quick look and multiple 60s on/after November 24 is not necessarily a great sign for the winter -- there were a number of below average snow seasons.  But there are some exceptions and I don't know if I would worry too much.

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24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Up to 60 at ORD.  Second one in the past 5 days.

I took a quick look and multiple 60s on/after November 24 is not necessarily a great sign for the winter -- there were a number of below average snow seasons.  But there are some exceptions and I don't know if I would worry too much.

What's the sample size? Because 60s after nov 24 is just a specific variable and can be achieved multiple different ways. Something such as this might have little or no correlation to teleconnections and other large scale patterns that have a more direct impact on winter. Basically, from the years from which this was the case, how many of them were in a state that is relevant to this year? Obviously 60s in November with a overall above average November/a Nino/predominantly positive EPO/big west trough--ridge in the east/etc aren't particularly relevant to where we are right now. 

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7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

What's the sample size? Because 60s after nov 24 is just a specific variable and can be achieved multiple different ways. Something such as this might have little or no correlation to teleconnections and other large scale patterns that have a more direct impact on winter. Basically, from the years from which this was the case, how many of them were in a state that is relevant to this year? Obviously 60s in November with a overall above average November/a Nino/predominantly positive EPO/big west trough--ridge in the east/etc aren't particularly relevant to where we are right now. 

I'm not sure... it was just a preliminary look and not a full list.  But even with that I found some notable exceptions as said (like 51-52 and 66-67). Maybe I will go more in depth when time allows.

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44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Up to 60 at ORD.  Second one in the past 5 days.

I took a quick look and multiple 60s on/after November 24 is not necessarily a great sign for the winter -- there were a number of below average snow seasons.  But there are some exceptions and I don't know if I would worry too much.

I wouldn't put any stock into that. We need troughing to lock in. Its looking good.

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5 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

What's the sample size? Because 60s after nov 24 is just a specific variable and can be achieved multiple different ways. Something such as this might have little or no correlation to teleconnections and other large scale patterns that have a more direct impact on winter. Basically, from the years from which this was the case, how many of them were in a state that is relevant to this year? Obviously 60s in November with a overall above average November/a Nino/predominantly positive EPO/big west trough--ridge in the east/etc aren't particularly relevant to where we are right now. 

Ok, I went back and found all the years with 2 or more 60+ degree days from 11/24 through December 31.  It has happened 28 times in Chicago, and things actually evened out to the point that there's no signal for winter snowfall (15 winters had above average snow and 13 winters had below average snow).  It's been a bad sign for the few times it has happened in the past ~15 years or so, but that is really a small sample size.

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23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Ok, I went back and found all the years with 2 or more 60+ degree days from 11/24 through December 31.  It has happened 28 times in Chicago, and things actually evened out to the point that there's no signal for winter snowfall (15 winters had above average snow and 13 winters had below average snow).  It's been a bad sign for the few times it has happened in the past ~15 years or so, but that is really a small sample size.

Thanks!

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17 for a low this morning but the weather story here (if you can call it that) is still just wind.  Raw past few days and looks to continue around shore areas.  

23915751_1898707863492429_1914199478272833688_n.jpg.705f67ac99c77987ddcdf1a0616ea3b2.jpg

Still managed to hang on to snow (especially in the woods) despite it being 44 yesterday.  The last bit of snow has been through so many freeze and thaws that it reminds me of late season stubborn artifact snow. 

IMG_3825.thumb.JPG.bc0838ba4eb8f2d3e48b9f70f6eaf663.JPG

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

17 for a low this morning but the weather story here (if you can call it that) is still just wind.  Raw past few days and looks to continue around shore areas.  

23915751_1898707863492429_1914199478272833688_n.jpg.705f67ac99c77987ddcdf1a0616ea3b2.jpg

Still managed to hang on to snow (especially in the woods) despite it being 44 yesterday.  The last bit of snow has been through so many freeze and thaws that it reminds me of late season stubborn artifact snow. 

IMG_3825.thumb.JPG.bc0838ba4eb8f2d3e48b9f70f6eaf663.JPG

I lost the rest of my snowcover a couple days ago, but actually happy as I can finish getting my leaves picked up before next week.

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Probably a sharp contrast to places in northern/northwest Iowa like Mason City/Sioux City.  Those areas seemed to cash in quite nicely last season.

Yes.  There has been a very sharp north-south snow gradient across Iowa the last couple years.  Parts of northern Iowa have had several double-digit snowfalls, while southern Iowa hasn't had anything.

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On ‎11‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 3:18 PM, (((Will))) said:

Sounds awesome. The one thing I don't like about where I live right now is that it isn't in the forest. I would love to live secluded in the forest.

 

PS - There's still no snow on the ground anywhere on the Tug Hill Plateau...

Redfield: http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=3&cam=1

Calumet, Michigan: Calumet.jpg

Looks like there is more snow in the Tug now than in the Keweenaw.... :P It's all dependent on the pattern.

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I'm over the wind

MQT:

It's been pretty windy for some across our area this week! Here's a look at the highest wind gusts observed since this past Monday. While the highest gusts were seen on Monday, winds have been gusting over 40 mph across the Lake Superior shoreline for several days in a row. In fact, we've had gale warnings on Lake Superior for five consecutive days! 

24232854_1900423756654173_5651296260380964516_n.jpg.8b53314db512ccd5bc0e2301d94261a1.jpg

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38 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I'm over the wind

MQT:

It's been pretty windy for some across our area this week! Here's a look at the highest wind gusts observed since this past Monday. While the highest gusts were seen on Monday, winds have been gusting over 40 mph across the Lake Superior shoreline for several days in a row. In fact, we've had gale warnings on Lake Superior for five consecutive days! 

24232854_1900423756654173_5651296260380964516_n.jpg.8b53314db512ccd5bc0e2301d94261a1.jpg

Yeah I am tired of these limited precip wind machines.

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1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

I'm over the wind

MQT:

It's been pretty windy for some across our area this week! Here's a look at the highest wind gusts observed since this past Monday. While the highest gusts were seen on Monday, winds have been gusting over 40 mph across the Lake Superior shoreline for several days in a row. In fact, we've had gale warnings on Lake Superior for five consecutive days! 

 

I feel like the whole month of November has been WINDY! I do lots of work outside, and it has seemed like every day the wind has been a deterrent in some way in getting my work done more efficiently.

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On ‎10‎/‎31‎/‎2017 at 11:53 AM, Hoosier said:

Final CFS run for the month.  A couple questions here.  One, will there actually be this type of gradient (I tend to think so) and two, just how will it lay out?

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201711.thumb.gif.a9feeaf7983248b7628101317d232bdc.gif

 

CFS was obviously too warm for Nov, as it did finish colder than normal here....but how did the gradient pattern shape up?

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

CFS was obviously too warm for Nov, as it did finish colder than normal here....but how did the gradient pattern shape up?

Only through the 29th but it misplaced it. There was a gradient but the warmest anomalies were out west, and it was too warm in the east.

MonthTDeptUS.png.89dc9cf1cb53c014933fd174d6d582bb.png

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