Stebo Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 32 minutes ago, roardog said: Models are trending to a big time -PNA at least for awhile(hello La Niña).However,cold air is still pouring into Canada thanks to ridging near Alaska. That pattern would probably bring very changeable weather around here. Periods of warm and cold. Helps enhance the gradient pattern even more. Keeping BC/AB/SK/MB cold is the best thing for us going into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 6 hours ago, Stebo said: This year looks to be opposite, which is very good. The gradient that we have been seeing already on the models shows the potential this winter will have. We haven't had a winter with a strong temperature gradient in a while. 2015-2016 was a gradient winter. The problem was all of the semi-formidable storms kept getting ripped to shreds by the confluent upper-level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Just now, Powerball said: 2015-2016 was a gradient winter. The problem was all of the semi-formidable storms kept getting ripped to shreds. Too much confluence along the EC that winter if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 6 hours ago, iluvsnow said: And poof...just like that....the big, sustained warm-up the GFS was showing is gone in the long range on the 12z runs. Not saying its right or wrong...just stating what it shows. Three days or so of warm....in a sea of below normal temps for the next 16 days. the torch is back... and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Powerball said: 2015-2016 was a gradient winter. The problem was all of the semi-formidable storms kept getting ripped to shreds by the confluent upper-level flow. I wouldn't really call that a gradient winter overall... at least in the classic sense as it's usually used when describing a pattern that is colder than average north and warmer than average farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wouldn't really call that a gradient winter overall... at least in the classic sense as it's usually used when describing a pattern that is colder than average north and warmer than average farther south. Yeah if anything that is a very weak gradient especially with the warmer anomalies further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Here is a gradient winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, rainsucks said: the torch is back... and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies. This was you yesterday morning. You're on the mega warm November train after a day or two of model runs that don't even go out to the midpoint of the month? On 10/26/2017 at 4:30 AM, rainsucks said: Will probably end up closer to normal than the past couple months. Below normal I highly doubt though. EURO already showing some anomalous warmth at the end of its run too. Extremely volatile pattern to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Here is a gradient winter 08-09 as well. Maybe even a better example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 08-09 as well. Maybe even a better example. Yep a bit displaced to the south for the region though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Here is a collection of 3 years that I think this winter might follow especially with the changeable weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, rainsucks said: the torch is back... and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies. There's no torch coming. If you consider upper 60s for 3 days a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 1 hour ago, rainsucks said: the torch is back... and don't worry, it's gonna be a mega blowtorch. Nov is gonna see some very warm anomalies. 20 minutes ago, Jonger said: There's no torch coming. If you consider upper 60s for 3 days a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Dying over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Since we are getting close to November, someone should get a snowfall contest thread up, I nominate Hoosier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 While the Z'S of current patterns have reduced the Wx fun factors of late. The clash of the nista's, is helping me get through the tough days of fall..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 lol at Jonger and rainsucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 23 hours ago, Stebo said: Several days of near or above record temps would be unprecedented. November 2015 we did achieve that and it was unprecedented then, it would be again this time around. Several days in a row of record temps is impressive, not unprecedented. However my comment was much more geared towards rainsucks calling one euro model run (the same model he recently bashed as being so unreliable lately) unprecedented. And even that at face value it wasn't record surface temps in Chicago (maybe out west, not sure). In any event as you mentioned a gradient pattern setting up potentially showing signs for Winter. And that could not make me more happy at this point, regardless of what November actually brings. Actually, a gradient pattern is probably why the models keep going so up-and-down with where the anomalies are going to rest. It creates entertainment between jonger and rainsucks on a run to run basis, but the take away is that much colder than normal to the North much warmer to normal than the South equals classic gradient. November averages 1.5" of snow, the following 4 months average 40". As anxious as I get for snow starting November 1st, like a switch lol, long term implications for a stormy Winter are my main focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 19 hours ago, Jonger said: We are looking at a well below normal start to November. We have had awful luck with Novembers over the last 10 years... It's about damn time we get a cold one. November's 2013 and 2014 were very cold. In fact November 2014 ranks in Detroit's all time coldest novembers list. Yet they both yielded light snow. On the other hand, November 2015 was a full on torch and had a big snowstorm. Moral of the story, November temps and snowfall aren't necessarily a matching set. I'm excited for the potential this coming Winter. Gradients definitely suck when you're on the wrong side of them, but typically in our region, in a Nina, a gradient Winter is exactly what we want. If that happens, we would certainly suffer through a few rainstorms, but would have more than our share of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 14 hours ago, Stebo said: Here is a collection of 3 years that I think this winter might follow especially with the changeable weather. . When 1998-99 is your worst analogue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: . When 1998-99 is your worst analogue No kidding, you still pocket one of most historic winter months @ DTW in Jan '99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 The last few runs of the CFS have the hella gradient look for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 wondering if some areas in this subforum could set all-time monthly highs with this kind of set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 15 minutes ago, rainsucks said: wondering if some areas in this subforum could set all-time monthly highs with this kind of set-up? Bringing up monthly records 9 days out? Yes, it's a very warm look and we could be talking records (at least daily) in some areas should something like that pan out, but it's a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 keep it cold where it actually matters some in early Nov. Love that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 LOL at Monthly record highs. Detroit's November record is 81F. The warmest temps on the GFS don't even hit 70. Will we exceed 70? Maybe, but we aren't even forecast to get that warm -- yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Jonger said: LOL at Monthly record highs. Detroit's November record is 81F. The warmest temps on the GFS don't even hit 70. Will we exceed 70? Maybe, but we aren't even forecast to get that warm -- yet. GFS slants crazy toward climo with 2m temperatures. It is useless in this range for 2m temperatures. Of course we go over this every off season warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 3 hours ago, Stebo said: GFS slants crazy toward climo with 2m temperatures. It is useless in this range for 2m temperatures. Of course we go over this every off season warm up. Do you mean with GFS-MOS temps trending toward climatology (due to the fact that it's programmed to do this)? Or the other factor-- GFS 2m temperatures in 850mb warm ups are somewhat low. The GFS under-mixes the lower atmosphere when those southwesterly winds come along with warmer 850mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 Just now, Chinook said: Do you mean with GFS-MOS temps trending toward climatology (due to the fact that it's programmed to do this)? Or the other factor-- GFS 2m temperatures in 850mb warm ups are somewhat low. The GFS under-mixes the lower atmosphere when those southwesterly winds come along with warmer 850mb temps. Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 16 hours ago, Jonger said: LOL at Monthly record highs. Detroit's November record is 81F. The warmest temps on the GFS don't even hit 70. Will we exceed 70? Maybe, but we aren't even forecast to get that warm -- yet. In all fairness, his post said "some" not everybody. This sub includes IA & MO and that map looks quite toasty west of the Lakes. Could be much less dramatic over our way. We've been enduring a see-saw pattern for months, and while cold may eventually dominate I don't see that taking hold before January tbh. If the tropics aren't finished, it won't be hard to sell me on a warm period or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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