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November 2017 Discussion


hlcater

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I wasn't implying that there's nothing to follow, but temperature forecasts aren't that exciting this time of year. I want the first hint of real winter weather for those of us not in Northern MI.

12z GFS nearly pitched a shut out for precip for most of the region over the entire 16 days.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This morning's euro has six straight days at or above 50 here, beginning Friday, with three of those days above 60.  I don't want this kind of stuff all winter, but after a few cold weeks it'll feel nice.  I'll be able to get all the winter yard and garage prep finished up.

Yeah if there's no prospects for snow it might as well be warm AFAIC.  Agree with Hoosier about Friday.  Looks like another overachiever.  

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15 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I wasn't trying to say that southern Michigan is bad because it's warm, I'm emphasizing how strange the difference is between the Keweenaw and NWL/Saginaw.

 

And about population - I'm used to living in northern Maine/northern Michigan since 2001. It feels insane whenever I actually go to a city. I mean...Marquette feels HUGE to me.

Marquette is a nice town. There's a very small section of it that definitely has an urban feel, but you go outside the city and bam. Isolation. When I went to the UP last winter it was crazy the difference in snow from Marquette versus JUST outside the city. Obviously a fresh snowstorm is anyone's game, and ive seen storms that jackpot the heart of Detroit, but go into Detroit in mid-winter with old snowcover and it's definitely less than surrounding burbs. I think that's the case anywhere. But the extreme I saw in Marquette - yowser.

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9 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Apparently this would have been a very warm month if it weren't for the stupid HLB. Now the non-stop troughing in the east makes sense...

The past is in the past. I hope you can find some time over the next week to enjoy the mild temperatures we will be having. It looks like your 50s (maybe 60s?) will return for a bit. Regardless of what happens, sometimes it is very hard for us to remember to be thankful for whatever we do have. May you have a peaceful and blessed Thanksgiving!

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 

The latest HRRRx has the QC reaching 66 tomorrow, and Cedar Rapids 64.  CR would break their old record of 63, and MLI would tie it at 66.  The lack of clouds, the perfect timing of the incoming cold front, and dry ground look optimal.  Let's go for 70!  :tomato:

Wouldn't be surprised if somebody hit 70. Maybe in that area near where IA/IL/MO come together.  If not there, then STL is a good candidate.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

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9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! 

The latest HRRRx has the QC reaching 66 tomorrow, and Cedar Rapids 64.  CR would break their old record of 63, and MLI would tie it at 66.  The lack of clouds, the perfect timing of the incoming cold front, and dry ground look optimal.  Let's go for 70!  :tomato:

Yikes!  Chestnut Mountain kind of over your way fired up the snow guns last night.  I think they're just wasting water at this point!

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'll go 68 at MLI and 62 at ORD tomorrow. Was tempted to even go a little warmer but that is already significantly above guidance.

Sounds pretty good.  Latest HRRRx has MLI and CID hitting 67 now.  The GFS and Euro have been a little quicker in moving the 850mb thermal ridge out of Iowa compared to the NAM, but due to the NAM's mixing issues the NAM actually ends up quite a bit cooler.  DVN has been keeping highs in the lower 60s at both locations, but think they'll have to give in and bump that up by tomorrow morning.

 

1 hour ago, krfd said:

Yikes!  Chestnut Mountain kind of over your way fired up the snow guns last night.  I think they're just wasting water at this point!

Yeah that's not gonna work out too well for them the next week or so lol.  :yikes:

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Interesting variation in temps this morning, as some low lying areas are a good 10-15 degrees colder than higher areas.  Muscatine was 28 at 6am, while MLI/DVN was 44/42 respectively.  MLI up to 45 already while it's still only 36 here.  

DVN wrote one heck of a long disco for such a benign weather pattern.  Pretty impressive.

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