November 2017 Discussion

[BuffaloWeather]

20 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Nah. I thought about this a lot. I have no interest in a place that is warmer than Moscow on average.

Maybe you get epic snow. Maybe you're the Davis, WV of the LES world.

But you're still averaging high temperatures near and around freezing all winter and you can't hold a snow depth higher than YQB.

I doubt you can even beat Lake Placid/Saranac Lake when it comes down to it...(snowcover)

 

It's like Aomori vs Hokkaido, only a nudge colder down the fake effect scale.

 

 

Redfield elevation is 1,138' and averages over 300" a year. Saranac lake/Lake placid has an elevation of 1545' and averages a little over 100" a year. Redfield is a cold climate, you must be thinking of those closer to the lake plain, they keep snow on the ground all winter. I've been to almost all the towns on the tug as well as most places in the Adirondacks several times. You're greatly misinformed about the tugs/dacks climate. Also, talk to me when you receive 141" in 10 days with 5" per hour snowfall rates and see if you don't change your mind.

[forkyfork]

17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Were you with Nick (OSU) during that at Oswego? I believe he was still in school during that. 

i was with the les chase group on the old easternuswx forums. randy, weather53, zwyts, huffmakd, stormchaser chuck, and others i don't remember

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, forkyfork said:

i was with the les chase group on the old easternuswx forums. randy, weather53, zwyts, huffmakd, stormchaser chuck, and others i don't remember

Awesome! I remember following you guys when you were placing some sort of radar in the bands? Do you still have the link to that page and it's data?

[Jim Martin]

[cmillzz]

Looks like it won't even reach 50 tomorrow morning. HRRR barely gets me into the upper 40s before the cold front sweeps through and temps start to tank. 

This is even worse than Oct 2009...

[cmillzz]

Oh and TWC dropped my high down to 49 tomorrow as well. What a shocker.

[Hoosier]

On 11/17/2017 at 5:31 PM, cmillzz said:

Looks like it won't even reach 50 tomorrow morning. HRRR barely gets me into the upper 40s before the cold front sweeps through and temps start to tank. 

This is even worse than Oct 2009...

Yeah, I might be in trouble with my prediction if SBN doesn't make 50 tomorrow, as the next chance may not be for a while.

[cyclone77]

Picked up 0.02" of very light rain/heavy drizzle today.  Very murky day.

[weatherbo]

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

ps - I've seen over 5" per hour several times in my life. Whether it was here, Chardon/Painesville, Ohio or here in Calumet (37 inches of snow in 9 hours ----- after getting several feet of snow in the days before.)

I could have moved to any snow belt I chose when I left Indiana, but in my humble opinion, you can't beat a UP/Lake Superior winter with  200-250" of snow (occasionally 300") and average highs in the low-20's. Yes, the Erie and Ontario belts are impressive, especially if you live for the extreme events a few times a season.  Too far south for me, surrounded by too much population, and way too prone to long thaws... that's not to diminish the impressiveness those belts are, they're just different.  SW lower MI wasn't even a starter for me for all of those same reasons and the fact that they lack any significant upslope component... that's like the turbo boost to any lake belt. Here, routinely, a 3-5" clipper can result in a foot and a half of snow.  In mid-winter, at times it's hard to tell when one snow ends and another snow starts.  The longevity, depth of cold, snowfall and snow cover, I feel makes the UP the best place east of the Rockies for winter weather, but that's just me.

Rain/drizzle earlier with a high of 34, but snowing like heck tonight.

[josh_4184]

The next 10-15 days look pretty lackluster for any meaningful snows for anyone East of the rockies.  Log range euro and even GFS shows some potential cold air troughing working down with potential but seriously doubting opening sledding day at this juncture. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Snow depth means nothing to me, as I love insane snowfall rates and huge storms more. I’ve seen 55” depth here in 2014, just don’t get the same high as 5” rates. To each their own I guess. We all have our favorite parts of winter. As long as ski country gets enough snow for me to board and ski I’m good to go. But I see what you are saying for those that love insane depth consistently you cannot beat the up east of Rockies. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

I could have moved to any snow belt I chose when I left Indiana, but in my humble opinion, you can't beat a UP/Lake Superior winter with  200-250" of snow (occasionally 300") and average highs in the low-20's. Yes, the Erie and Ontario belts are impressive, especially if you live for the extreme events a few times a season.  Too far south for me, surrounded by too much population, and way too prone to long thaws... that's not to diminish the impressiveness those belts are, they're just different.  SW lower MI wasn't even a starter for me for all of those same reasons and the fact that they lack any significant upslope component... that's like the turbo boost to any lake belt. Here, routinely, a 3-5" clipper can result in a foot and a half of snow.  In mid-winter, at times it's hard to tell when one snow ends and another snow starts.  The longevity, depth of cold, snowfall and snow cover, I feel makes the UP the best place east of the Rockies for winter weather, but that's just me.

Rain/drizzle earlier with a high of 34, but snowing like heck tonight.

Yes. I was so excited when I moved to SW Michigan from PA to be in the "Lake Effect Belt". Waaaaaaay too many opportunities for thaws here, and the lack of hills for orographic lift is disappointing. I average 100 inches a year, which is still MUCH more than most people get....but bad patterns (like the last 2 years) can really make for a lousy winter snow-wise. Up there, you have many different opportunities for snow, even in an awful pattern. Also, I am totally on board with the population figures. West Michigan is getting way too populated, as it is a beautiful area, but all the folks from Chicago and Detroit are coming here. LOTS of retirees from Chicago who can buy a house on Lake Michigan for a decent price (for them).

This is why I am cautious about moving to the Tug, and want to live higher up in elevation and a little farther away from the lake and it's moderating influences. Plus, nature abounds!

[michsnowfreak]

The snow belt of the UP is amazing. I'd kill to spend a winter there in lake effect country. Even outside the belts, our frequency of lake whiteout squalls seems to be increasing. No rhyme or reason, but it just seems like epic lake effect events are increasing in the belts.

[BuffaloWeather]

3 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

The next 10-15 days look pretty lackluster for any meaningful snows for anyone East of the rockies.  Log range euro and even GFS shows some potential cold air troughing working down with potential but seriously doubting opening sledding day at this juncture. 

I agree. These indices don't really favor to much arctic air coming in for awhile. We really need the Pacific to cooperate. We just saw a -4 standard deviation -AO and a strong -NAO and temperatures were barely below normal. We want to see + PNA and - EPO to get things fired up for the Great Lakes. I feel the Pacific, especially early on in the season controls much more of our weather than other indices. Later on in the winter I feel the AO and NAO have more control over our winter weather. 

[cmillzz]

Figures when it finally does warm up it's December 

[weatherbo]

12 hours ago, blackrock said:

Yes. I was so excited when I moved to SW Michigan from PA to be in the "Lake Effect Belt". Waaaaaaay too many opportunities for thaws here, and the lack of hills for orographic lift is disappointing. I average 100 inches a year, which is still MUCH more than most people get....but bad patterns (like the last 2 years) can really make for a lousy winter snow-wise. Up there, you have many different opportunities for snow, even in an awful pattern. Also, I am totally on board with the population figures. West Michigan is getting way too populated, as it is a beautiful area, but all the folks from Chicago and Detroit are coming here. LOTS of retirees from Chicago who can buy a house on Lake Michigan for a decent price (for them).

This is why I am cautious about moving to the Tug, and want to live higher up in elevation and a little farther away from the lake and it's moderating influences. Plus, nature abounds!

I have a cousin in Montague/Whitehall.  I understand what you mean.  It's like a retiree resort town anymore.  It's beautiful tho, and I've been in some impressive nnw bands there that are nothing to sneeze at, and in artic outbreaks, I like how it can snow lightly but persistently for days with a west flow.  If there was just a little more elevation, I think there'd be more seasonal totals experienced like N lower around Josh. 

On a side note, I think the heaviest snow rates I've seen was near Chesterton, IN around 2004 when I was 15...it was something insane like 5-7" per hour.  It's been a long time since a N flow event really delivered 30-40" in that area. I have pics taken with an old camera but I can't find them this morning. At any rate, I'm sure whatever snow belt people live in they'll be plenty of snow to shovel.

[TugHillMatt]

12 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

I have a cousin in Montague/Whitehall.  I understand what you mean.  It's like a retiree resort town anymore.  It's beautiful tho, and I've been in some impressive nnw bands there that are nothing to sneeze at, and in artic outbreaks, I like how it can snow lightly but persistently there for days with a west flow.  If there was just a little more elevation, I think there'd be more seasonal totals experienced like N lower around Josh. 

On a side note, I think the heaviest snow rates I've seen was near Chesterton, IN around 2004 when I was 15...it was something insane like 5-7" per hour.  It's been a long time since a N flow event really delivered 30-40" in that area. I have pics taken with an old camera but I can't find them this morning. At any rate, I'm sure whatever snow belt people live in they'll be plenty of snow to shovel.

So true about persistent snow off the lake during good patterns. This area is notorious for getting snow day after day that is nothing heavy, but a couple inches a day that piles up over time. It definitely keeps it more interesting than the other side of Lake Michigan. Also, as I have talked about on here before, the SW flow lake enhanced events are definitely nothing to sneeze at. They are more rare, but when we have an Alberta clipper pattern, they are quite common. So, winters that lack Alberta Clippers almost always tend to average below normal snowfall here. Winters that contain these systems, along with Low Pressures that sit over Lake Superior and sweep cold air/snow in, tend to average in the 130 to 160 inch range. Winter here tends to be one or the other...AWESOME or sort of bleak. Winters of 2013 and 2014: Awesome (140 inch winters); Winters of 2015 and 2016: Bleak (50 inches)...and that shows exactly how we average in the 100 inch range.

Convergence band snows here (again, usually SW flow enhanced) typically drop a foot of snow in 6 hours or less...and I have seen them at least once or twice each winter.

[josh_4184]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

I have a cousin in Montague/Whitehall.  I understand what you mean.  It's like a retiree resort town anymore.  It's beautiful tho, and I've been in some impressive nnw bands there that are nothing to sneeze at, and in artic outbreaks, I like how it can snow lightly but persistently for days with a west flow.  If there was just a little more elevation, I think there'd be more seasonal totals experienced like N lower around Josh. 

On a side note, I think the heaviest snow rates I've seen was near Chesterton, IN around 2004 when I was 15...it was something insane like 5-7" per hour.  It's been a long time since a N flow event really delivered 30-40" in that area. I have pics taken with an old camera but I can't find them this morning. At any rate, I'm sure whatever snow belt people live in they'll be plenty of snow to shovel.

My elevation certainly helps 1400', but the primary reason why NWL gets some much LES is due to position of Lake Superior.  When the big lake is pre-conditioning the air, it really helps our area with the much shorter fetch (Lake Michi) compared to when we just get bands from Lake Michigan, they are not nearly as intense. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

My elevation certainly helps 1400', but the primary reason why NWL gets some much LES is due to position of Lake Superior.  When the big lake is pre-conditioning the air, it really helps our area with the much shorter fetch (Lake Michi) compared to when we just get bands from Lake Michigan, they are not nearly as intense. 

Good point about Lake Superior. But imagine if we had some hills down here right by the widest part of Lake Michigan, on a light west wind that goes on for days.  Hmmm, maybe I need to start relocating some soil...

[josh_4184]

3 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Good point about Lake Superior. But imagine if we had some hills down here right by the widest part of Lake Michigan, on a light west wind that goes on for days.  Hmmm, maybe I need to start relocating some soil...

For sure elevation helps with LES see Tug Hill by orographic lifting but having a longer fetch is huge. 

 

 

[weatherbo]

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

@weatherbo...what's the elevation where you live? I love the area I'm guessing is near where you live. Somewhere 20-30 miles north of lake Michigamme...

 

It's one of the prettiest areas I've seen in Michigan. I love the elevation there, too. 1,200 is high on the keweenaw...but you guys get 1,400-1,500ish

I have an app on my phone to figure out elevation...I'm always watching it when I drive to Marquette.

I have 20 acres.  House sits at 1570' and the high spot on my property is 1610'... A 1000' difference from my house to Superior in a fairly short distance. As the crow flies, I'm about 10 miles ssw of Big Bay, a few miles east of Silver Lake Basin or about 15 miles northeast of Lake Michigamme.  Just west of me around the basin, the hills are 1700-1800'.  Snow is already deep there with 12-15" vs the 7-8" I have OTG.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, blackrock said:

So true about persistent snow off the lake during good patterns. This area is notorious for getting snow day after day that is nothing heavy, but a couple inches a day that piles up over time. It definitely keeps it more interesting than the other side of Lake Michigan. Also, as I have talked about on here before, the SW flow lake enhanced events are definitely nothing to sneeze at. They are more rare, but when we have an Alberta clipper pattern, they are quite common. So, winters that lack Alberta Clippers almost always tend to average below normal snowfall here. Winters that contain these systems, along with Low Pressures that sit over Lake Superior and sweep cold air/snow in, tend to average in the 130 to 160 inch range. Winter here tends to be one or the other...AWESOME or sort of bleak. Winters of 2013 and 2014: Awesome (140 inch winters); Winters of 2015 and 2016: Bleak (50 inches)...and that shows exactly how we average in the 100 inch range.

Convergence band snows here (again, usually SW flow enhanced) typically drop a foot of snow in 6 hours or less...and I have seen them at least once or twice each winter.

Last year I witnessed the unusual phenomenon of lake squalls being relatively weak over SW MI and reintensifying over SE MI. Roguewaves may remember. There is so many possibilities with lake effect. We can experience 5-7"/hr rates here the problem is it last 10 minutes. In all my years taking winter trips to the snowbelt i have seen some awesome snowpacks but never have been lucky enough to go during a big Lake outbreak. If something major comes up this Winter. And I'm talking like Buffalo 2001-esque, maybe I'll just do an impromptu unplanned trip.

[TugHillMatt]

53 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last year I witnessed the unusual phenomenon of lake squalls being relatively weak over SW MI and reintensifying over SE MI. Roguewaves may remember. There is so many possibilities with lake effect. We can experience 5-7"/he rates here the problem is it last 10 minutes. In all my years taking winter trips to the snowbelt i have seen some awesome snowpacks but never have been lucky enough to go during a big Lake outbreak. If something major comes up this Winter. And I'm talking like Buffalo 2001-esque, maybe I'll just do an impromptu unplanned trip.

I had the opportunity to drive through Buffalo after that event. I have NEVER seen so much snow on the sides of the roads in my life! It was awesome!

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Sounds awesome. The one thing I don't like about where I live right now is that it isn't in the forest. I would love to live secluded in the forest.

 

PS - There's still no snow on the ground anywhere on the Tug Hill Plateau...

Redfield: http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=3&cam=1

Calumet, Michigan: 

That's a very typical winter scene for anyone in the Midwest. That same spot a month from now though will likely be buried. Can't wait for January pics.

[cmillzz]

Intrahour 45 today for the high 

It really does seem like it will never get above 50 again. 

[weatherbo]

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Sounds awesome. The one thing I don't like about where I live right now is that it isn't in the forest. I would love to live secluded in the forest.

 

PS - There's still no snow on the ground anywhere on the Tug Hill Plateau...

Redfield: http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=3&cam=1

Calumet, Michigan: 

Our conditions seem to be about the same... pic from earlier today.  

Winds have really increased and it's getting colder.  I can see flurries starting to fall in the outdoor light.  1-3 in the forecast but who knows.

[Jim Martin]

[cyclone77]

Was just checking out SPC's HREF model ensemble page they put in service a few weeks ago.  Pretty nice little site.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/

[TugHillMatt]

7 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Sounds awesome. The one thing I don't like about where I live right now is that it isn't in the forest. I would love to live secluded in the forest.

 

PS - There's still no snow on the ground anywhere on the Tug Hill Plateau...

Redfield: http://www.northernchateau.com/camgd.php?updatefreq=5&camsite=3&cam=1

Calumet, Michigan: 

That's not too surprising, considering that the Keweenaw is at a much higher latitude than the Tug Hill Plateau.

[Hoosier]

Monday looks decently breezy with the gradient between that clipper type low riding through southern Canada and the high pressure in the southeast.  Nothing crazy but perhaps some gusts of 35-40 mph or so in places, although mixing heights don't look all that great.