hlcater Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 Picture of the thick frost this morning that Cyclone mentioned. Tried out my new camera on it, this one turned out alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The widespread dense fog this morning coated everything in a heavy frost, including paved areas. Made for some slick spots driving to work. Temp bottomed out at 25. It really made the landscape look frozen with frost covering everything. I went birding at Cedar Lake after the fog lifted and the majority of the lake had a frozen surface, the first time I've seen that this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 50 is going to feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 17 hours ago, magoos0728 said: Will be traveling over a few rivers and thru some woods from Atlanta area to SE Wisconsin next Tuesday. Anything looking interesting for that time period? Probably not but check back later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 20 hours ago, magoos0728 said: Will be traveling over a few rivers and thru some woods from Atlanta area to SE Wisconsin next Tuesday. Anything looking interesting for that time period? That appears to be the least interesting period in the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 I'm liking the long range GFS pattern. Bodes well for starting DJF on a good wintery note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, Willh said: Starting out nice up here. Have had snow cover since around October 26-27 I believe. Same here, Will. Day 18 with snow. Wondered if you guys stayed in the area. Looks like a good winter up this way... enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Very dark all day long with the heavy low overcast locked in place. Dark enough vampires could probably roam around without a care lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Trough after trough after trough in the east, and quite literally a permanent ridge out west. WTF is going on I'd really like some answers please, this isn't normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 That might be a first. I don't think I've ever seen a loop of the 300+ hour GFS posted. A single image or two, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That might be a first. I don't think I've ever seen a loop of the 300+ hour GFS posted. A single image or two, yeah. Just an idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 36 minutes ago, Stebo said: Just an idea... Hahaha. Best subtle 5ppd suggestion I have seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 34 with light rain this morning. Rain changes over to snow later and it could be an interesting evening/overnight with a brief window for strong north winds and heavy snow locally. Hi-res models indicate 4-6" possibly more from here over towards Herman. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 17 hours ago, Willh said: Starting out nice up here. Have had snow cover since around October 26-27 I believe. This looks familar; Pat's Foods on 6th St? Visited family in Calumet this past summer for the first time in ~20 years. Beautiful country, obviously, but especially in the summer and winters. One day I will experience some winter days up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 One interesting thing to note, regardless of how much snow anyone gets this November, it looks to end up a colder than normal for most of the Midwest. Going into the month, it looked milder than normal and we were told that in a LA Nina, November can be quite a tell tale sign for Winter temperature trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: One interesting thing to note, regardless of how much snow anyone gets this November, it looks to end up a colder than normal for most of the Midwest. Going into the month, it looked milder than normal and we were told that in a LA Nina, November can be quite a tell tale sign for Winter temperature trends. Yep, no guarantees but a better sign for winter than having a warm month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep, no guarantees but a better sign for winter than having a warm month. Oh for sure no guarantees. I remember I was quite surprised at the findings because OVERALL, November temps show no correlation to winter temps. But in nina there is something of a correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Oh for sure no guarantees. I remember I was quite surprised at the findings because OVERALL, November temps show no correlation to winter temps. But in nina there is something of a correlation. We are running about 6 degrees below average for the month, but still waiting upon the first inch of snow. I was hoping with this colder weather and active storm track, we might manage more. Looking at the forecast through the end of the month, we may have to wait until December. I know it is pretty normal at this time of the year for storms to track through the northern Great Lakes, but I hope that shifts south as winter sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 25 minutes ago, blackrock said: We are running about 6 degrees below average for the month, but still waiting upon the first inch of snow. I was hoping with this colder weather and active storm track, we might manage more. Looking at the forecast through the end of the month, we may have to wait until December. I know it is pretty normal at this time of the year for storms to track through the northern Great Lakes, but I hope that shifts south as winter sets in. For sure you and I are dealing with climo since snow across most of SMI in the first half of Nov is pretty darn rare outside of the LES belts. As for synoptic snow chances, it's not only about getting the systems to track south, but having cold enough air to get frozen stuff. That take a lot when avg highs are 50-ish. But, the shifting south has already begun with this weekend's system as most models originally had this going across the Straights. Now, it looks to be quite a bit south of that, closer to what could be the prime track for the winter months. Regardless if we see much snow the rest of the month (2013 gave mby only 1.1"), the overall pattern re-alignment underway in the next week should get enough cold air in place for our chances to ramp up heading into December. This very compressed chilly autumn's days are numbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 cmillz, better get up early and go out and enjoy Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Was pretty nice most of the afternoon as the temp made it to 53. Strong cold air advection hit about an hour ago and the temp has plummeted into the upper 30s courtesy of 35mph+ northwest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: For sure you and I are dealing with climo since snow across most of SMI in the first half of Nov is pretty darn rare outside of the LES belts. As for synoptic snow chances, it's not only about getting the systems to track south, but having cold enough air to get frozen stuff. That take a lot when avg highs are 50-ish. But, the shifting south has already begun with this weekend's system as most models originally had this going across the Straights. Now, it looks to be quite a bit south of that, closer to what could be the prime track for the winter months. Regardless if we see much snow the rest of the month (2013 gave mby only 1.1"), the overall pattern re-alignment underway in the next week should get enough cold air in place for our chances to ramp up heading into December. This very compressed chilly autumn's days are numbered. True enough. Lake Michigan really diminishes our chances of getting good synoptic snow in November. The past two winters were so mild and kept Lake Michigan warm, that pretty much both seasons we dealt with a warm lake modifying any cold we got...and thus not great snowfall. A bit of trauma I think for me! Ha. The pattern this month has been sort of odd. It has been below normal, but almost seems like "stale, cool air." Then again, a month of 40s and rain is about as blah to me as a month of 90 with sunshine. We'll see if we can get a bit of synoptic snow this weekend. Hopefully the cold rushes in while there is moisture still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 4 hours ago, Willh said: What are some good models to look at? I subscribed to weatherbell, etc. Weatherbell has it all. NAM 3k, WRF-ARW, HRRR are three models that I use regularly when anticipating Lake effect or really any general forecast within 48 hours. Ran has switched to all snow as of about 35 min ago. Still expect several inches. Lost all but an inch or two of the snow cover with the rain and fog today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: cmillz, better get up early and go out and enjoy Saturday morning. This really has been one of the most depressing months I've ever seen in my life. The persistence of that east trough is something else. Don't even think 2013-2014 was that relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 It's just sad that after a very nice September and decent October that we have to go through one of the most revolting Novembers of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Snow and wind mean business tonight! 30 mph gust in the past 15 min along with moderate snow (if not hvy at times). Intensity has def gotten steadier since around 745. An inch of new snow so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Snow and wind mean business tonight! 30 mph gust in the past 15 min along with moderate snow (if not hvy at times). Intensity has def gotten steadier since around 745. An inch of new snow so far. It rained today in Indiana. Just in case you need a pick-me-up bouquet from a blast from your past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 minutes ago, bowtie` said: It rained today in Indiana. Just in case you need a pick-me-up bouquet from a blast from your past. I lived it, man! Tough being a snow junkie living in Indiana. Fresh off the press hi-res model still showing a tight swath of 6"+ tonight. If it keeps up the way it is now, it's likely to happen. Classic rain to snow plaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 7 minutes ago, weatherbo said: I lived it, man! Tough being a snow junkie living in Indiana. Fresh off the press hi-res model still showing a tight swath of 6"+ tonight. If it keeps up the way it is now, it's likely to happen. Classic rain to snow plaster. I'm planning on heading up that way again this Feb. Glad a snowbase is starting up there. I'm sure bowtie in Indiana will get his snow eventually...its only mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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