Stebo Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: Well the highest temp in my TWC 15 day forecast is 48, so NWS has other ideas I guess. Do you have a twin who lives in Dayton OH, just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Snow coming down pretty good right now in Ephraim, WI. Temperature around 30F and some nice sized flakes as well due to the water content. Probably will end up with about two to three inches on the ground before it starts to melt later today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Do you have a twin who lives in Dayton OH, just asking. Both rely on TWC, both say it's never going to hit a certain temp ever again.Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 12Z GFS much weaker with the late week storm until it gets north of Lake Ontario. Euro on the other hand looks much more interesting with a double-barreled low feature at 12Z Friday (991 MB near Winnipeg and 996 MB over western KS) consolidating and deepening to 979 MB over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 After hitting a record low yesterday, we missed it today due to cloud cover. However still despite filtered sunshine it was another wintry feeling day for the 1st part of November. Which only increases my thirst for the 1st blanket of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 42 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: 12Z GFS much weaker with the late week storm until it gets north of Lake Ontario. Euro on the other hand looks much more interesting with a double-barreled low feature at 12Z Friday (991 MB near Winnipeg and 996 MB over western KS) consolidating and deepening to 979 MB over Lake Huron by 12Z Saturday. 18z run is more impressive. Fwiw, there were some real bombs on the 12z GEFS (a few below 970 mb). Will be a while until we get a better idea how it shakes out. Besides whatever severe potential and snow potential, the more widespread story with these deeper solutions would be a regional high wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 35 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z run is more impressive. Fwiw, there were some real bombs on the 12z GEFS (a few below 970 mb). Will be a while until we get a better idea how it shakes out. Besides whatever severe potential and snow potential, the more widespread story with these deeper solutions would be a regional high wind event. I wonder if this strong low pressure will end up creating a severe weather threat in the Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 It has been discussed a bit in the severe thread. Verbatim the GFS CAPE isn't all that impressive with just a narrow tongue right up along the CF, and zilch out ahead in the warm sector where the surface winds are backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 If tonight's system would have arrived a week or two later we'd be looking at a nice 3-4" snow event. Thermals are very close to a snow event for Iowa/IL. Still could see a few wet flakes mix in where some banded precip sets up, but most areas will stay all rain throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 On 11/10/2017 at 7:44 PM, cmillzz said: Looking more and more likely for at least a top 20 cold November. If it's anything like 2013-2014, we won't see spring until May at the earliest. Just an awful stretch of weather, I don't know why I live here honestly. If I hated cold, I would have moved 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 00z GFS gets the weekend system below 970 mb. Something I've noticed on the models in general is that the system sort of gets blocked from making a quick northeast exit (and actually may get secondary development on the east coast). The net effect of that would be to prolong the wind event across the sub, but we'll see if the speed changes on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 NAM products are trying to give us a burst of wet snow tomorrow morning. Enough to get DVN's attention. I'd be happy just to see a few wet flakes mix in at this point, but we'll see. .... 00z NAM is offering some robust lift to the tune of 15 to 20 microbars/sec (-12c to -18c layer) in the dendritic growth zone by 12z Sunday through 18z, and consequently is wetter from previous runs depicting over 0.25 to just over 0.5 inch in the band as it shifts across areas mainly near/north of I-80. The magnitude of the lift dynamically cools the column and leads to a change over to potentially a moderate/heavy wet snow for a time in these areas Sunday AM. Wet ground and temps above freezing would likely limit accums, but some visibility issues and rate could overwhelm some surfaces especially grassy areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: NAM products are trying to give us a burst of wet snow tomorrow morning. Enough to get DVN's attention. I'd be happy just to see a few wet flakes mix in at this point, but we'll see. .... 00z NAM is offering some robust lift to the tune of 15 to 20 microbars/sec (-12c to -18c layer) in the dendritic growth zone by 12z Sunday through 18z, and consequently is wetter from previous runs depicting over 0.25 to just over 0.5 inch in the band as it shifts across areas mainly near/north of I-80. The magnitude of the lift dynamically cools the column and leads to a change over to potentially a moderate/heavy wet snow for a time in these areas Sunday AM. Wet ground and temps above freezing would likely limit accums, but some visibility issues and rate could overwhelm some surfaces especially grassy areas... LOT also put out a similar update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT also put out a similar update. Nice. Yeah the HRRR has been pretty consistent in changing the rain over to snow over northeastern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Quarter-size flakes raining straight down mixed in with the rain. First snowflakes of the season. 0.14" of rain so far. EDIT: Some of the largest flake conglomerations I've ever seen. Some are around 2" in length. Still 60-70% rain, and the snowflakes are melting on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 All snow now. Still mostly melting on contact, but the grass is starting to "frost up". Looks like a snow globe out there. Gotta give kudos to the NAM products as they did pretty good with this compared to the GFS. RGEM did pretty well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 I didn't see any flakes, but I did get a decent 0.43" of rain, better than I expected. As cyclone suggested, if this was December 12th I'd be shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Can someone post an annual snowfall map For Wisconsin and the UP. Thanks in advance. I may have a job opportunity taking me up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Mostly rain with the occasional flakes. Probably 80/20 rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Can someone post an annual snowfall map For Wisconsin and the UP. Thanks in advance. I may have a job opportunity taking me up this way. The maps are generally at least a bit inaccurate, and especially in the lake effect zones. If you could specify what area you may be moving to, somebody here may be able to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The maps are generally at least a bit inaccurate, and especially in the lake effect zones. If you could specify what area you may be moving to, somebody here may be able to help. Thanks Hoosier. If I stay in Wisconsin I will probably look for a place to live in the northern sections of the State. More Rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Mostly rain with the occasional flakes. Probably 80/20 rain/snow. And quite quickly have now transitioned to nearly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: And quite quickly have now transitioned to nearly all snow. Nice. After a few hours of snow mixing in, and a brief transition over to all snow we've gone back over to plain light rain. 0.23" for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The maps are generally at least a bit inaccurate, and especially in the lake effect zones. If you could specify what area you may be moving to, somebody here may be able to help. Annual snowfall for UP from Matquette NWS. http://www.weather.gov/mqt/seasonsnowfallmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 I herd Mt Holly in northern Oakland county opened already, earliest opening ever. Thought that was pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, slow poke said: I herd Mt Holly in northern Oakland county opened already, earliest opening ever. Thought that was pretty cool. Grew up skiing there. Can't imagine them opening almost 2 weeks before Turkey Day. That's impressive! What if they also scored their latest closing in the same season? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 33 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Thanks Hoosier. If I stay in Wisconsin I will probably look for a place to live in the northern sections of the State. More Rural areas. Northern WI varies a lot. The "southern" part of northern WI averages about 50-60", but it's more like 75-100"+ as you get closer to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Call it the first accumulating snow of the year. Nice little DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Northern WI varies a lot. The "southern" part of northern WI averages about 50-60", but it's more like 75-100"+ as you get closer to the lake. Yeah looking at some of the most recent snowfall maps there is a sharp contrast from near the Lake to away from the lake by just a few miles. It is interesting how LES really ramps up totals as you get closer to the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Started a thread for the weekend system. Hopefully doesn't go poof lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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