November 2017 Discussion

[hlcater]

With many models projecting a colder than normal first week(maybe 2) could this end up being a colder than normal November? If so, would be quite a contrast to the past 2 novembers that were both significantly above normal for much of the area. However it has yet to be seen if this pattern is able to maintain itself throughout the month. I started this now because as November draws closer, much of the pattern discussion will include this month.

[Hoosier]

Models/ensembles seem to be suggesting a gradient pattern (below average north/warmer than average south) developing in the first week of the month.  I am certainly interested to see how the month plays out as it may offer some hints about tendencies for the upcoming winter, as has been discussed in the other thread.

[IWXwx]

28 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Models/ensembles seem to be suggesting a gradient pattern (below average north/warmer than average south) developing in the first week of the month.  I am certainly interested to see how the month plays out as it may offer some hints about tendencies for the upcoming winter, as has been discussed in the other thread.

If that's the case, I like it. If you're too far north, it could mean cold and dry and if you're too far south-blowtorch. Mid way - Active weather. At least that's what I choose to believe.

EDIT: I'm talking about sensible weather, not what it portends for the rest of winter.

[rainsucks]

Will probably end up closer to normal than the past couple months. Below normal I highly doubt though. EURO already showing some anomalous warmth at the end of its run too. Extremely volatile pattern to say the least...

[Jonger]

The first half of November should yield below normal.

Who knows, maybe we get another September, with way below to start and way above to finish.

Just peeked at the long range ensembles and they don't really show anything crazy in either direction toward the end of the run.

[IWXwx]

CPC's pretty non-committal. Since the 6-10 and 8-14 depicts below normal temps, they must feel that part of the month will be be above normal.

 

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

The first half of November should yield below normal.

Who knows, maybe we get another September, with way below to start and way above to finish.

Just peeked at the long range ensembles and they don't really show anything crazy in either direction toward the end of the run.

Globals aren't really reading the potential SWE which could have large implications later in Nov. Not guaranteed, but if it happens expect those warm ridging looks to subside as we go forward. 

[rainsucks]

11 hours ago, Jonger said:

The first half of November should yield below normal.

Who knows, maybe we get another September, with way below to start and way above to finish.

Just peeked at the long range ensembles and they don't really show anything crazy in either direction toward the end of the run.

Even if it's not an ensemble it would still be completely unprecedented if it were to verify.

[Jonger]

That's like a 48 hr period. Not unprecedented at all. You're reaching.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

That's like a 48 hr period. Not unprecedented at all. You're reaching.

You are wrong on that, the main trough is still back on the coast, it would be several days of above normal warmth and the humidity flies through the roof as well. 60 degree dew points from MSP over to Traverse City at that point and it would only go up from there with an absolutely wide open Gulf of Mexico. Also this isn't one blip run, the Euro and it's ensembles have been showing this for 5 runs in a row.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

You are wrong on that, the main trough is still back on the coast, it would be several days of above normal warmth and the humidity flies through the roof as well. 60 degree dew points from MSP over to Traverse City at that point and it would only go up from there with an absolutely wide open Gulf of Mexico. Also this isn't one blip run, the Euro and it's ensembles have been showing this for 5 runs in a row.

Yeah, the warm signal is growing after the first couple days of the month, to the point that nobody may escape it for a time.

[Stebo]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah, the warm signal is growing after the first couple days of the month, to the point that nobody may escape it for a time.

I have a feeling it won't end quietly either, not when you introduce that much moisture this far north.

[michsnowfreak]

Unprecedented lol. It's funny how rainsucks disappears with anything cold and reappears with anything warm. November is one of the most variable months of the year. Most November's see some days in the 60s here and quite a few years see 70+ (only one time has it hit over 80, on Nov 1, 1950). The Plains have seen 80s. Unprecedented would be 80s in Chicago and Detroit and 90s in Nebraska and Iowa. 

[Jonger]

8 hours ago, Stebo said:

You are wrong on that, the main trough is still back on the coast, it would be several days of above normal warmth and the humidity flies through the roof as well. 60 degree dew points from MSP over to Traverse City at that point and it would only go up from there with an absolutely wide open Gulf of Mexico. Also this isn't one blip run, the Euro and it's ensembles have been showing this for 5 runs in a row.

It's still a Sunday through Tuesday warm up... Temps around 70 as a high for 3 days.

We are looking at the entire month and the first half looks cooler than normal, this isn't disputable. 

[BuffaloWeather]

The most important thing about the next few weeks is it looks like cold and snow building up across Canada, our source of cold air. The last 2 years had a Canadian torch. 

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

It's still a Sunday through Tuesday warm up... Temps around 70 as a high for 3 days.

We are looking at the entire month and the first half looks cooler than normal, this isn't disputable. 

Different model, GFS is being too progressive

[Stebo]

6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Unprecedented lol. It's funny how rainsucks disappears with anything cold and reappears with anything warm. November is one of the most variable months of the year. Most November's see some days in the 60s here and quite a few years see 70+ (only one time has it hit over 80, on Nov 1, 1950). The Plains have seen 80s. Unprecedented would be 80s in Chicago and Detroit and 90s in Nebraska and Iowa. 

Several days of near or above record temps would be unprecedented. November 2015 we did achieve that and it was unprecedented then, it would be again this time around.

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The most important thing about the next few weeks is it looks like cold and snow building up across Canada, our source of cold air. The last 2 years had a Canadian torch. 

This year looks to be opposite, which is very good. The gradient that we have been seeing already on the models shows the potential this winter will have. We haven't had a winter with a strong temperature gradient in a while.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Several days of near or above record temps would be unprecedented. November 2015 we did achieve that and it was unprecedented then, it would be again this time around.

The end of the 00z ECMWF had 850 mb temps better than 15C in Chicago.  I would imagine that would be approaching the max of what has been observed in November.  

Not ready to go all in on big warmth yet, but it looks a period of much above average temps with some possibility of high end warmth (relative to time of year).  

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The end of the 00z ECMWF had 850 mb temps better than 15C in Chicago.  I would imagine that would be approaching the max of what has been observed in November.  

Not ready to go all in on big warmth yet, but it looks a period of much above average temps with some possibility of high end warmth (relative to time of year).  

I believe 15c at 850 is near record for DTX. I know it hasn't occurred on a sounding per the climo page from SPC.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

This year looks to be opposite, which is very good. The gradient that we have been seeing already on the models shows the potential this winter will have. We haven't had a winter with a strong temperature gradient in a while.

Gradients are good, as long as you're on the side you want to be on lol.  Will be interesting to see if this comes into play with the progged warm-up (shunts it farther south) or if everybody gets warm.  

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gradients are good, as long as you're on the side you want to be on lol.  Will be interesting to see if this comes into play with the progged warm-up (shunts it farther south) or if everybody gets warm.  

As long as the gradient is wavy all winter long I would be more than pleased.

[iluvsnow]

And poof...just like that....the big, sustained warm-up the GFS was showing is gone in the long range on the 12z runs. Not saying its right or wrong...just stating what it shows. Three days or so of warm....in a sea of below normal temps for the next 16 days.

[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The most important thing about the next few weeks is it looks like cold and snow building up across Canada, our source of cold air. The last 2 years had a Canadian torch. 

Again, this quote is the take away here.  I'm more focused on southern Canada for November.  The rest is just semantics.  

[Jonger]

2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And poof...just like that....the big, sustained warm-up the GFS was showing is gone in the long range on the 12z runs. Not saying its right or wrong...just stating what it shows. Three days or so of warm....in a sea of below normal temps for the next 16 days.

Good.

But... It was never showing anything sustained.

It was a 72 hour period at best... and the high temps were near 70. 

Garden variety warm sector from a northern state bowling ball low.

[Jonger]

We are looking at a well below normal start to November.

We have had awful luck with Novembers over the last 10 years... It's about damn time we get a cold one.

 

[Jonger]

4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Doesn't look that much below. Definitely warmer than what guidance was showing a couple of days ago. GEFS are warmer than the OP as well and match the EPS.

It's not going to be the day after tomorrow by any stretch, but we will be at a negative anomaly on November 15th. Beyond that, who knows.

[rainsucks]

lol Jonger is trying so hard right now.

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And poof...just like that....the big, sustained warm-up the GFS was showing is gone in the long range on the 12z runs. Not saying its right or wrong...just stating what it shows. Three days or so of warm....in a sea of below normal temps for the next 16 days.

 

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Good.

But... It was never showing anything sustained.

It was a 72 hour period at best... and the high temps were near 70. 

Garden variety warm sector from a northern state bowling ball low.

You guys are ignoring the Euro for some reason which has been consistently showing warmer values than the GFS and for a longer stretch.

[roardog]

Models are trending to a big time -PNA at least for awhile(hello La Niña).However,cold air is still pouring into Canada thanks to ridging near Alaska. That pattern would probably bring very changeable weather around here. Periods of warm and cold.