BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 hours ago, josh_4184 said: Looks like BuffaloWeather is getting hammered now. Yeah it went from the Buf NWS predicting 2-3 feet to 1-3" back to 1-2 feet. Crazy forecasting period the last week here. Strong northern cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Weird system(s). Prolly one of the strongest storms I have ever seen...winds gusting ~55-60mph for like 24 hours with constant heavy snow(and it kicked off with 48 degrees and 2 thunderstorms w/ pouring rain). No way of knowing how much we got here but in Calumet I'm guessing ~20 inches...but who knows. Another 6-10inches tonight. Snowing pretty steady right now. TAKE PICTURES. lol. Both of you please, since it's not gonna snow here for some time, I need to live through your pictures, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 Here is a map with radar estimated snowfall totals for Michigan over the past 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 7, 2017 Author Share Posted December 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Unfortunately radar can't estimate here because the snow doesn't even show up on the radar. lol. Blocked by the Huron Mountains. That is true, its a shame that LES is so low in the atmosphere, APX radar always has trouble showing snow along Lake Mich Coastline as well because its so far away from the beam pastern. HI Res showing another good hit for most favored LES belts through Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Heavier snow coming down just after I got home from work here in Hancock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Which model is best at forecasting lake effect/enhanced snowfall? Would it be the WRF Mesoscale models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Scattered snow showers moving across Northern Ohio this afternoon. Lake effect band of snow currently paralleling Lake Erie from Mentor to Ashtabula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 1 hour ago, (((Will))) said: Even better now. More snow and for longer. Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton- Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton, Hancock, L`Anse, Kenton, and Sidnaw 329 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Widespread lake effect snow occurring by evening. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected, with localized amounts exceeding a foot from Rockland through Painesdale and Calumet to Mohawk. Intense snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are expected this evening within heavier bands setting up between Twin Lakes and Hancock. * WHERE...Keweenaw, Ontonagon, Northern Houghton, Baraga and Southern Houghton Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting over 30 mph at times will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Localized whiteout conditions are expected especially this evening within the heavier snow bands. Your WWA's are more robust than IWX's recently issued WSWatch for Michiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 59 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Are you close to Finlandia? Just curious bc it would be nice to see info about that area. I have classes most days and dunno how the roads are down there. Three blocks west of Pats Food. I work over in Houghton so I am very familar of road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 Picked up 11.6" today and .5" yesterday. Highest rates were 3" an hour this morning. Total of 12.1" so far. Think we pick up another 3-6" when the band swings north. This band had very low ratios, it's extremely sloppy and heavy to shovel. Very rare for lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 GRR NWS did an excellent job with this lake effect snow event. Much of the lakeshore in their area got a good 3 to 6 inch snowfall, which is what they were calling for. Started a little later than expected, but pretty much tapered off right at 4 p.m., when the Advisory ended. Great call, GRR! Hopefully a sign of good forecasts to come...although we know how tough lake effect forecasting can be.... Right, Buffaloweather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 13 minutes ago, blackrock said: GRR NWS did an excellent job with this lake effect snow event. Much of the lakeshore in their area got a good 3 to 6 inch snowfall, which is what they were calling for. Started a little later than expected, but pretty much tapered off right at 4 p.m., when the Advisory ended. Great call, GRR! Hopefully a sign of good forecasts to come...although we know how tough lake effect forecasting can be.... Right, Buffaloweather? Yeah, this event was one of the more difficult ones. Will post some pics and vids later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Picked up 11.6" today and .5" yesterday. Highest rates were 3" an hour this morning. Total of 12.1" so far. Think we pick up another 3-6" when the band swings north. This band had very low ratios, it's extremely sloppy and heavy to shovel. Very rare for lake effect. Probably was helped by such warm lake waters in Erie still around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, blackrock said: GRR NWS did an excellent job with this lake effect snow event. Much of the lakeshore in their area got a good 3 to 6 inch snowfall, which is what they were calling for. Started a little later than expected, but pretty much tapered off right at 4 p.m., when the Advisory ended. Great call, GRR! Hopefully a sign of good forecasts to come...although we know how tough lake effect forecasting can be.... Right, Buffaloweather? For yby perhaps. I wish I had a buck for every time they screw the pooch on their two SE counties. With this weak scenario, adding Calhoun to the WWA was bad. Got a coating here , perhaps 0.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: For yby perhaps. I wish I had a buck for every time they screw the pooch on their two SE counties. With this weak scenario, adding Calhoun to the WWA was bad. Got a coating here , perhaps 0.4" Ouch. I think they were counting on the westerly wind component to push the band inland more. It seems like it was more of an issue of the lake effect not moving south very much. It didn't look like the bands were even moving into Allegan and Van Buren counties much (after the initial heavy band that moved in with the cold front.) They still had enough to reach the advisory levels though. It seems like we here in Ottawa County were in the heaviest banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah, this event was one of the more difficult ones. Will post some pics and vids later. Looking forward to it! Glad that you were able to get a nice event! Best wishes on being safe out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Looking like Northwest and North Central Indiana could cash in some nice snow totals with the Lake Effect Snow setup this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Some pics and a video. Click on pic for better definition. What's best method to upload pics on here. I have been using IMGUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 1 hour ago, josh_4184 said: Probably was helped by such warm lake waters in Erie still around 50. Yeah, early season events are usually much more sloppy with higher QPF. Definitely gives the snow a little more staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Snow showers most of the day yesterday, some pretty decent snow in the morning. Picked up 0.4" imby and 0.6" at DTW. It was typical lake effect airy fluff so despite a high of 31 much of it melted/evaporated, but still a light dusting on the grass. It's nice to finally be "on the board" after like 10 traces but my appetite for a blanket of snow is sky high now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 NWS Corpus Christi has more snow on the ground than Marquette and its Dec 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 APX had a pretty entertaining AFD this morning, looks like more of the same over the next two weeks + as if we all didn't already know. Quote 000 FXUS63 KAPX 081142 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 642 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...Accumulating lake effect snow continues... High impact weather potential...lake effect/enhanced snow, heaviest this morning, and again late tonight. Shortwave digging toward Superior and central/eastern upper MI early this morning. This has carved out a weak (1004mb) surface low just east of Superior. 1000-850mb winds have backed to the wsw in response. That had been keeping the prime Superior band (and it is a doozy) north of Whitefish Pt, but that is starting to move onshore now. Meanwhile, lake effect/enhanced snow continues off of Lake MI into nw lower MI, the Straits region, on toward Drummond Isl. Heaviest snow has been in Emmet Co. Plenty going on in this near term period, and surprise of surprises, most of it involves snow. Eastern upper today: As the digging upper trof approaches, the surface low will deepen somewhat in the pre-dawn hours. It will then kick eastward after 12Z. A trailing surface trof will get dragged down into eastern upper, and the dominant band up there will (is) coming along for the ride. While that all happens, the ongoing activity skirting far se Chip Co will get kicked southward out of eastern upper. There will be a 2-3 hour window of some potentially impressive snowfall rates, near and north of Paradise, over the next several hours This dominant band will weaken as it moves south, with wnw-flow lake effect for the rest of the day in a much drier airmass (2-5 inch accums, roughly near and north of M-28). Northern lower today: Lake enhancement will continue to target locales from Leland to Cheboygan, with particular emphasis on Emmet Co, til a bit past sunrise. Winds will start to veer down here as well as the morning proceeds and the surface low exits eastward. And again, this will also correspond with the arrival of drier air, which persists into the afternoon. Could well see total overnight/ morning accums in the 4-8" inch range from Ltl Trav Bay up to PLN. Drier air will take a toll as this activity moves inland this morning and thru midday. It is interesting to see the HRRR maintain some 0.25" liquid QPF into parts of Antrim/Otsego (other models minor things out quickly as move se away from Lake MI). Will still allow for some accums to around 3 inches in Antrim/Otsego. Will still be dwindling pops somewhat as we move thru the afternoon, and am a bit concerned that the advisory for Charlevoix/Antrim/Otsego runs too long. But will take a cautious approach to any drastic headline changes at this time. Max temps today mid 20s to around 30f. Tonight, another vigorous shortwave dives into the western lakes, starting the evening near DLH and ending it over southern Lake MI. An associated surface low will move into w central lower MI, with enhanced synoptic support for precip. Expect a light synoptic snow to move into much of northern lower MI from mid evening to the early overnight hours. Pure synoptic snow will be higher downstate than here, given the path of the shortwave and associated stronger forcing. Synoptic snow up here will be generally less than inch, perhaps a bit more in Gladwin/Arenac. But 850mb temps are in the lower minus teens, so we will see lake enhancement where winds are onshore. That will occur for a period into ne lower MI north of APN, where winds are out of the east (vs southerly to the south). This will especially occur (mainly overnight) into nw lower MI (from Leelanau south), with weak westerlies becoming somewhat stronger n to nne winds. Snowfall amounts of 2-5" are reasonable for this portion of nw lower, 1-3" across far northern lower MI. Will refrain from posting any headlines for now. Relatively little will be going on for much of the night in much of eastern upper MI. Leftover lake effect will be scraping by Paradise/Whitefish on weakening wnw flow to start the night. Might see the opportunity for a mesoscale vortex to form over eastern Superior in a short period tonight with light winds. That would then get dragged southward toward central/upper MI overnight as n to nne winds pick up. Still, hard to go more than an inch or two in far nw Chip. Min temps as cold as 10 above in parts of eastern upper, teens to lower 20s otherwise. && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 ...Snow showers ongoing, but generally light snowfall amounts... High Impact Weather Potential...Snow showers will be ongoing through much of the period with light nuisance amounts possible. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Potent shortwave trough associated with a clipper system will rotate through the Great Lakes on Saturday, with the bulk of its mid-level energy drifting east of northern Michigan by Saturday evening. A short-duration reinforcing shot of cold air will accompany this trough, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -16C to -18C through Saturday night. A weak surface ridge will try to nudge into northern Michigan late Saturday night into early Sunday, quickly displaced by another incoming clipper system from southern Ontario. Primary Forecast Concerns...Location and amounts of snowfall through the period. A continued favorable setup for additional lake effect snow heading into the weekend. 850mb temperatures will be dropping through the day on Saturday, yielding delta Ts around 20 degrees or better. Plenty of 850-700mb moisture initially, though moisture will begin to strip out a little from top down by afternoon/evening as rising heights and a drier airmass settle in behind the departing shortwave. Northerly low level winds on Saturday will gradually back to WSW by Sunday, breezy but not particularly strong. So lake effect snow likely to start the day Saturday in the favored northerly snow belts (mainly Grand Traverse Bay area and south), aside from some synoptic snow near Lake Huron associated with the departing shortwave. With surface ridge and influx of drier air, lake effect chances will decrease a bit Saturday night, with chances becoming focused within the westerly flow component snowbelts. Incoming clipper system on Sunday will brush eastern Upper, with westerly winds shifting NW with the passage of a cold front. Snowfall amounts through the weekend not looking menacing -- just nuisance small amounts. Fluctuating wind direction will help to fan out the lake effect totals across eastern Upper and northwest Lower. An increasing pressure gradient on Sunday will make for breezy conditions with scattered gusts up to 25 mph. Perhaps some isolated blowing snow, but not expecting anything high impact. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will be enhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This could yield some significant snow totals for some areas. An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes region through the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over the region. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts of Arctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. A clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday night into Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C or perhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat as yet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night into Thursday, following a nearly identical track. In between these systems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by the periodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flow snow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking a cursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lake effect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough to warrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course as details become clearer in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 14 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: APX had a pretty entertaining AFD this morning, looks like more of the same over the next two weeks + as if we all didn't already know. Picked another almost 5” overnight, looks like a snow globe outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 All of NWL been getting dumped on all morning, picked several more inches since last night. One big negative is the warm wet ground as it is still melting the snow from the bottom up so our snowpack is still only around 10-12" even though we have had about 16-20"+ fall the past few days. Hopefully with this cold the ground will start freezing more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 Although there is someone still out riding in his long track sled. This pic is from a restaurant about 2 miles from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The Canadian finally deserted Hoosier's bid for a close call on dominant LM band. However, the WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW2 both still show the band dumping on Porter County rather than farther east in LaPorte. Sam at IWX still shows a glimmer of hope for the western solution thanks to the possibility of a mesolow shoving the main band west. Any way you slice it, someone in the lake belt is going to see 8". Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. As mentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low drops into western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lake become northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20s while theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above 10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution of several mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides south across lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leads to circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locally researched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low and vort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hires models trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center dropping south Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid in enhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time will lead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend a little further west than currently expected. Composite reflectivity trends from hires models still show most of the single band remaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and central Laporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in good agreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 counties which were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amounts will still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant band but given the favorable environment we have been discussing along with long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inch range with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomes stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 of us are heading up to the jackpot zone tomorrow afternoon to put on some rough miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 It's a shame models are so bad with lake effect. According to the GFS, Gaylord is looking at 5 inches of snow over the next 10 days, when in reality it will probably be close to 25 inches. Or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 47 minutes ago, IWXwx said: The Canadian finally deserted Hoosier's bid for a close call on dominant LM band. However, the WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW2 both still show the band dumping on Porter County rather than farther east in LaPorte. Sam at IWX still shows a glimmer of hope for the western solution thanks to the possibility of a mesolow shoving the main band west. Any way you slice it, someone in the lake belt is going to see 8". Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. As mentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low drops into western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lake become northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20s while theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above 10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution of several mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides south across lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leads to circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locally researched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low and vort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hires models trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center dropping south Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid in enhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time will lead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend a little further west than currently expected. Composite reflectivity trends from hires models still show most of the single band remaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and central Laporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in good agreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 counties which were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amounts will still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant band but given the favorable environment we have been discussing along with long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inch range with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomes stationary. Mesolow could definitely bend it west. Still not optimistic for anything more than a brief shot (if that) but it should be intense wherever it is. They mentioned 1-2" per hour...I'd say at minimum and wouldn't be surprised if there are higher rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 8, 2017 Author Share Posted December 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jonger said: It's a shame models are so bad with lake effect. According to the GFS, Gaylord is looking at 5 inches of snow over the next 10 days, when in reality it will probably be close to 25 inches. Or more. Yea, trying to model high res localized snowfall potential is next to near impossible with any accuracy especially out more than 24-36 hours. The global models don't ever come close in most cases. So I always take snowfall forecasts with a grain of salt especially dealing with LES. Just North of my house has been getting hammed since the bands formed into 3 dominate bands. Some areas will push 10"+ just from this morning through afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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