2017-18 LES Season

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Looks like BuffaloWeather is getting hammered now. 

Yeah it went from the Buf NWS predicting 2-3 feet to 1-3" back to 1-2 feet. Crazy forecasting period the last week here. Strong northern cutoff. 

[hlcater]

4 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Weird system(s).

Prolly one of the strongest storms I have ever seen...winds gusting ~55-60mph for like 24 hours with constant heavy snow(and it kicked off with 48 degrees and 2 thunderstorms w/ pouring rain). No way of knowing how much we got here but in Calumet I'm guessing ~20 inches...but who knows.

Another 6-10inches tonight. Snowing pretty steady right now.

 

TAKE PICTURES. lol.

Both of you please, since it's not gonna snow here for some time, I need to live through your pictures,

[josh_4184]

Here is a map with radar estimated snowfall totals for Michigan over the past 24hrs. 

 

[josh_4184]

7 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Unfortunately radar can't estimate here because the snow doesn't even show up on the radar. lol. Blocked by the Huron Mountains.

That is true, its a shame that LES is so low in the atmosphere, APX radar always has trouble showing snow along Lake Mich Coastline as well because its so far away from the beam pastern.

 

HI Res showing another good hit for most favored LES belts through Sat 

 

 

[wishforsnow]

Heavier snow coming down just after I got home from work here in Hancock.

[TugHillMatt]

Which model is best at forecasting lake effect/enhanced snowfall? Would it be the WRF Mesoscale models?

[Jim Martin]

Scattered snow showers moving across Northern Ohio this afternoon. Lake effect band of snow currently paralleling Lake Erie from Mentor to Ashtabula.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, (((Will))) said:

Even better now. More snow and for longer.

Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton,
Hancock, L`Anse, Kenton, and Sidnaw
329 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Widespread lake effect snow occurring by evening. Plan on
  difficult travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 6
  to 10 inches are expected, with localized amounts exceeding a
  foot from Rockland through Painesdale and Calumet to Mohawk.
  Intense snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are
  expected this evening within heavier bands setting up between
  Twin Lakes and Hancock.

* WHERE...Keweenaw, Ontonagon, Northern Houghton, Baraga and
  Southern Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting over 30 mph at times will
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Localized whiteout
  conditions are expected especially this evening within the
  heavier snow bands.

 Your WWA's are more robust than IWX's recently issued WSWatch for Michiana

[wishforsnow]

59 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

Are you close to Finlandia? Just curious bc it would be nice to see info about that area. I have classes most days and dunno how the roads are down there.

Three blocks west of Pats Food. I work over in Houghton so I am very familar of road conditions. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Picked up 11.6" today and .5" yesterday. Highest rates were 3" an hour this morning. Total of 12.1" so far. Think we pick up another 3-6" when the band swings north.

This band had very low ratios, it's extremely sloppy and heavy to shovel. Very rare for lake effect. 

 

[TugHillMatt]

GRR NWS did an excellent job with this lake effect snow event. Much of the lakeshore in their area got a good 3 to 6 inch snowfall, which is what they were calling for. Started a little later than expected, but pretty much tapered off right at 4 p.m., when the Advisory ended. Great call, GRR! Hopefully a sign of good forecasts to come...although we know how tough lake effect forecasting can be.... Right, Buffaloweather?  

[BuffaloWeather]

13 minutes ago, blackrock said:

GRR NWS did an excellent job with this lake effect snow event. Much of the lakeshore in their area got a good 3 to 6 inch snowfall, which is what they were calling for. Started a little later than expected, but pretty much tapered off right at 4 p.m., when the Advisory ended. Great call, GRR! Hopefully a sign of good forecasts to come...although we know how tough lake effect forecasting can be.... Right, Buffaloweather?  

Yeah, this event was one of the more difficult ones.

Will post some pics and vids later. 

[josh_4184]

4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Picked up 11.6" today and .5" yesterday. Highest rates were 3" an hour this morning. Total of 12.1" so far. Think we pick up another 3-6" when the band swings north.

This band had very low ratios, it's extremely sloppy and heavy to shovel. Very rare for lake effect. 

 

Probably was helped by such warm lake waters in Erie still around 50.

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, blackrock said:

GRR NWS did an excellent job with this lake effect snow event. Much of the lakeshore in their area got a good 3 to 6 inch snowfall, which is what they were calling for. Started a little later than expected, but pretty much tapered off right at 4 p.m., when the Advisory ended. Great call, GRR! Hopefully a sign of good forecasts to come...although we know how tough lake effect forecasting can be.... Right, Buffaloweather?  

For yby perhaps. I wish I had a buck for every time they screw the pooch on their two SE counties. With this weak scenario, adding Calhoun to the WWA was bad. Got a coating here , perhaps 0.4" 

[TugHillMatt]

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

For yby perhaps. I wish I had a buck for every time they screw the pooch on their two SE counties. With this weak scenario, adding Calhoun to the WWA was bad. Got a coating here , perhaps 0.4" 

Ouch. I think they were counting on the westerly wind component to push the band inland more. It seems like it was more of an issue of the lake effect not moving south very much. It didn't look like the bands were even moving into Allegan and Van Buren counties much (after the initial heavy band that moved in with the cold front.) They still had enough to reach the advisory levels though. It seems like we here in Ottawa County were in the heaviest banding.

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, this event was one of the more difficult ones.

Will post some pics and vids later. 

Looking forward to it! Glad that you were able to get a nice event! Best wishes on being safe out there.

[Jim Martin]

Looking like Northwest and North Central Indiana could cash in some nice snow totals with the Lake Effect Snow setup this weekend.

[BuffaloWeather]

Some pics and a video. Click on pic for better definition. What's best method to upload pics on here. I have been using IMGUR. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Probably was helped by such warm lake waters in Erie still around 50.

Yeah, early season events are usually much more sloppy with higher QPF. Definitely gives the snow a little more staying power.

[michsnowfreak]

Snow showers most of the day yesterday, some pretty decent snow in the morning. Picked up 0.4" imby and 0.6" at DTW. It was typical lake effect airy fluff so despite a high of 31 much of it melted/evaporated, but still a light dusting on the grass. It's nice to finally be "on the board" after like 10 traces but my appetite for a blanket of snow is sky high now lol.

[josh_4184]

NWS Corpus Christi has more snow on the ground than Marquette and its Dec 8th.

 

[josh_4184]

APX had a pretty entertaining AFD this morning, looks like more of the same over the next two weeks + as if we all didn't already know. 

Quote

000
FXUS63 KAPX 081142
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
642 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Accumulating lake effect snow continues...

High impact weather potential...lake effect/enhanced snow,
heaviest this morning, and again late tonight.

Shortwave digging toward Superior and central/eastern upper MI early
this morning. This has carved out a weak (1004mb) surface low
just east of Superior. 1000-850mb winds have backed to the wsw in
response. That had been keeping the prime Superior band (and it
is a doozy) north of Whitefish Pt, but that is starting to move
onshore now. Meanwhile, lake effect/enhanced snow continues off
of Lake MI into nw lower MI, the Straits region, on toward
Drummond Isl. Heaviest snow has been in Emmet Co. Plenty going on
in this near term period, and surprise of surprises, most of it
involves snow.

Eastern upper today: As the digging upper trof approaches, the
surface low will deepen somewhat in the pre-dawn hours. It will then
kick eastward after 12Z. A trailing surface trof will get dragged
down into eastern upper, and the dominant band up there will
(is) coming along for the ride. While that all happens, the
ongoing activity skirting far se Chip Co will get kicked southward
out of eastern upper. There will be a 2-3 hour window of some
potentially impressive snowfall rates, near and north of Paradise,
over the next several hours This dominant band will weaken as it
moves south, with wnw-flow lake effect for the rest of the day in
a much drier airmass (2-5 inch accums, roughly near and north of
M-28).

Northern lower today: Lake enhancement will continue to target
locales from Leland to Cheboygan, with particular emphasis on Emmet
Co, til a bit past sunrise. Winds will start to veer down here as
well as the morning proceeds and the surface low exits eastward. And
again, this will also correspond with the arrival of drier air,
which persists into the afternoon. Could well see total overnight/
morning accums in the 4-8" inch range from Ltl Trav Bay up to
PLN. Drier air will take a toll as this activity moves inland this
morning and thru midday. It is interesting to see the HRRR
maintain some 0.25" liquid QPF into parts of Antrim/Otsego (other
models minor things out quickly as move se away from Lake MI).
Will still allow for some accums to around 3 inches in
Antrim/Otsego. Will still be dwindling pops somewhat as we move
thru the afternoon, and am a bit concerned that the advisory for
Charlevoix/Antrim/Otsego runs too long. But will take a cautious
approach to any drastic headline changes at this time.

Max temps today mid 20s to around 30f.

Tonight, another vigorous shortwave dives into the western lakes,
starting the evening near DLH and ending it over southern Lake MI.
An associated surface low will move into w central lower MI, with
enhanced synoptic support for precip. Expect a light synoptic snow
to move into much of northern lower MI from mid evening to the early
overnight hours. Pure synoptic snow will be higher downstate than
here, given the path of the shortwave and associated stronger
forcing. Synoptic snow up here will be generally less than inch,
perhaps a bit more in Gladwin/Arenac. But 850mb temps are in the
lower minus teens, so we will see lake enhancement where winds are
onshore. That will occur for a period into ne lower MI north of
APN, where winds are out of the east (vs southerly to the south).
This will especially occur (mainly overnight) into nw lower MI
(from Leelanau south), with weak westerlies becoming somewhat
stronger n to nne winds. Snowfall amounts of 2-5" are reasonable
for this portion of nw lower, 1-3" across far northern lower MI.
Will refrain from posting any headlines for now.

Relatively little will be going on for much of the night in much of
eastern upper MI. Leftover lake effect will be scraping by
Paradise/Whitefish on weakening wnw flow to start the night. Might
see the opportunity for a mesoscale vortex to form over eastern
Superior in a short period tonight with light winds. That would then
get dragged southward toward central/upper MI overnight as n to nne
winds pick up. Still, hard to go more than an inch or two in far nw
Chip.

Min temps as cold as 10 above in parts of eastern upper, teens to
lower 20s otherwise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Snow showers ongoing, but generally light snowfall amounts...

High Impact Weather Potential...Snow showers will be ongoing through
much of the period with light nuisance amounts possible.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Potent shortwave trough associated with
a clipper system will rotate through the Great Lakes on Saturday,
with the bulk of its mid-level energy drifting east of northern
Michigan by Saturday evening. A short-duration reinforcing shot of
cold air will accompany this trough, with 850mb temperatures
dropping to around -16C to -18C through Saturday night. A weak
surface ridge will try to nudge into northern Michigan late Saturday
night into early Sunday, quickly displaced by another incoming
clipper system from southern Ontario.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Location and amounts of snowfall through
the period.

A continued favorable setup for additional lake effect snow heading
into the weekend. 850mb temperatures will be dropping through the
day on Saturday, yielding delta Ts around 20 degrees or better.
Plenty of 850-700mb moisture initially, though moisture will begin to
strip out a little from top down by afternoon/evening as rising
heights and a drier airmass settle in behind the departing
shortwave. Northerly low level winds on Saturday will gradually back
to WSW by Sunday, breezy but not particularly strong. So lake effect
snow likely to start the day Saturday in the favored northerly snow
belts (mainly Grand Traverse Bay area and south), aside from some
synoptic snow near Lake Huron associated with the departing
shortwave. With surface ridge and influx of drier air, lake effect
chances will decrease a bit Saturday night, with chances becoming
focused within the westerly flow component snowbelts. Incoming
clipper system on Sunday will brush eastern Upper, with westerly
winds shifting NW with the passage of a cold front. Snowfall amounts
through the weekend not looking menacing -- just nuisance small
amounts. Fluctuating wind direction will help to fan out the lake
effect totals across eastern Upper and northwest Lower. An
increasing pressure gradient on Sunday will make for breezy
conditions with scattered gusts up to 25 mph. Perhaps some isolated
blowing snow, but not expecting anything high impact.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017

High impact weather potential...Ongoing lake effect snow will be
enhanced by periodic snow from passing clipper systems. This could
yield some significant snow totals for some areas.

An unrelenting, active winter pattern for the Great Lakes region
through the period as a persistent longwave trough sits over the
region. A progression of several systems and repeated blasts of
Arctic air look to rotate around the trough at various time. A
clipper system will dive through the Great Lakes late Sunday night
into Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to around -20C or
perhaps colder heading into Tuesday. Snowblow, shovel, and repeat as
yet another clipper system rounds the trough Wednesday night into
Thursday, following a nearly identical track. In between these
systems, of course, will be ongoing lake effect...reinforced by the
periodic shots of cold, Arctic air. Northerly and northwesterly flow
snow belts appear to be most favored through the period. Taking a
cursory look at BUFKIT data and GEFS plumes, snowfall from the lake
effect combined with the passing clipper systems could be enough to
warrant headlines for some areas, but time will tell of course as
details become clearer in the coming days.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

14 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

APX had a pretty entertaining AFD this morning, looks like more of the same over the next two weeks + as if we all didn't already know. 

 

Picked another almost 5” overnight, looks like a snow globe outside. 

[josh_4184]

All of NWL been getting dumped on all morning, picked several more inches since last night. One big negative is the warm wet ground as it is still melting the snow from the bottom up so our snowpack is still only around 10-12" even though we have had about 16-20"+ fall the past few days. Hopefully with this cold the ground will start freezing more quickly.

[josh_4184]

Although there is someone still out riding in his long track sled. This pic is from a restaurant about 2 miles from my house.

[IWXwx]

The Canadian finally deserted Hoosier's bid for a close call on dominant LM band. However, the WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW2 both still show the band dumping on Porter County rather than farther east in LaPorte.

Sam at IWX still shows a glimmer of hope for the western solution thanks to the possibility of a mesolow shoving the main band west. Any way you slice it, someone in the lake belt is going to see 8".

Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. As 
mentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low drops 
into western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lake 
become northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20s 
while theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above 
10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution of 
several mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides south 
across lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leads 
to circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locally 
researched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low and 
vort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hires 
models trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center dropping 
south Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid in 
enhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time will 
lead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend a 
little further west than currently expected.  Composite reflectivity 
trends from hires models still show most of the single band 
remaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and central 
Laporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in good 
agreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 counties 
which were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amounts 
will still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant band 
but given the favorable environment we have been discussing along 
with long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfall 
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inch 
range with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomes 
stationary. 

[Jonger]

4 of us are heading up to the jackpot zone tomorrow afternoon to put on some rough miles.

[Jonger]

It's a shame models are so bad with lake effect.

According to the GFS, Gaylord is looking at 5 inches of snow over the next 10 days, when in reality it will probably be close to 25 inches.

Or more.

[Hoosier]

47 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

The Canadian finally deserted Hoosier's bid for a close call on dominant LM band. However, the WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW2 both still show the band dumping on Porter County rather than farther east in LaPorte.

Sam at IWX still shows a glimmer of hope for the western solution thanks to the possibility of a mesolow shoving the main band west. Any way you slice it, someone in the lake belt is going to see 8".

Attention quickly turns to lake effect snow event for Saturday. As 
mentioned...lake enhanced snow should begin as surface low drops 
into western Michigan early Saturday morning and winds over the lake 
become northwest then north. Delta Ts still climb into lower 20s 
while theta e lapse rates around -2 k/km and inversion heights above 
10kft. Models have been trending toward possible evolution of 
several mesoscale vortices as trailing surface trough slides south 
across lake in wake of surface low and lake/land convergence leads 
to circulation development. Pattern fits nicely with locally 
researched Type VI development which features a mesoscale low and 
vort center with an attached single band in its wake. Several hires 
models trying to show this with strong 925mb vort center dropping 
south Saturday morning. If this mesovort does develop it will aid in 
enhancing snowfall rates when it moves onshore but at same time will 
lead to more of a meandering and wavy single band that may bend a 
little further west than currently expected.  Composite reflectivity 
trends from hires models still show most of the single band 
remaining over southwest Berrien, Western St. Joseph and central 
Laporte counties despite the meandering nature. Models are in good 
agreement that warning level snow will fall across these 3 counties 
which were in a watch. Have therefore upgraded to a warning. Amounts 
will still depend on the evolution and movement of the dominant band 
but given the favorable environment we have been discussing along 
with long fetch and pre-conditioning should see intense snowfall 
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Total accums in the 4 to 8 inch 
range with locally higher amounts if and where this band becomes 
stationary. 

Mesolow could definitely bend it west.  Still not optimistic for anything more than a brief shot (if that) but it should be intense wherever it is.  They mentioned 1-2" per hour...I'd say at minimum and wouldn't be surprised if there are higher rates.  

[josh_4184]

7 minutes ago, Jonger said:

It's a shame models are so bad with lake effect.

According to the GFS, Gaylord is looking at 5 inches of snow over the next 10 days, when in reality it will probably be close to 25 inches.

Or more.

Yea, trying to model high res localized snowfall potential is next to near impossible with any accuracy especially out more than 24-36 hours.  The global models don't ever come close in most cases. So I always take snowfall forecasts with a grain of salt especially dealing with LES. 

Just North of my house has been getting hammed since the bands formed into 3 dominate bands. Some areas will push 10"+ just from this morning through afternoon.