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2017-18 LES Season

josh_4184

By josh_4184,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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Nice tidbit from APX on how rare it has been to actually have good snow for opening day. Of course this is not  a very long sample period for data.

Looks like Mid-Month we might get into winter again.

 

DPpmclzVAAAdkTs.jpg:large

 

 

At 264 I know fantasy range but looking more promising then the past few weeks for some sustained colds/troughing

gfs_T850_us_43.png

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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It's coming:

The transition to more amplified flow across North America with ridging
over the West Coast and a deep trough from the Canadian Arctic into
the Great Lakes will allow a clear path for much colder air from the
Arctic to move south into the Great Lakes region for late next week
with 850 mb temps lowering perhaps as cold as -18 to -20C by late week.
The cold air will also support lake effect snow showers downwind of
Lake Superior through much of next week for mainly the nw wind snowbelts.
Models also show a blocking ridge amplifying from the North Atlantic
into Greenland which would likely keep this colder pattern in place
with below normal temps and periods of lake effect snow along Lake
Superior even beyond next week.


 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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Looks like this weekend will be a great last weekend to get the yard all cleaned up! (Even though the Oaks are extremely late and stubborn in losing the rest of their leaves! Ha) I want to try and get every leaf out though, because I strongly dislike having to see ugly brown leaves sticking out of my beautiful, white snow piles. lol

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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That GFS run was just incredible. One of the best for long duration LES that I've seen. The blocking across the Atlantic and the positive PNA allows the PV to pay a visit to midwest and northeast in a series of waves riding along the elongated trough axis. I count a total of 3-4 over the course of 10 days. It reminds me of Dec 2001 or Jan 1985 setups. I do not see any sustained NW flow with this regime and that H5 setup. I do see long duration lake effect snows from NW to SW flow over the course of the next 3 weeks starting on Dec 5-7th.  The CIPS analogs are all on board, and once we get closer can pinpoint certain events. 72 hour totals of over 2 feet in favored locations. As cold air is most likely a certainty at this point, I am worried about dry air. Some of the long range models do not have as good moisture profiles as the GFS has. 

Image

gfs_T850_namer_35.pnggfs_T850_namer_44.png

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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So excited! This pattern has epic LES possibilities. Reminds me of Dec 2001. That atlantic blocking with the rotating PV near Hudson is just the perfect scenario for big time LES.

3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

It seems a given that someone will get slammed in the upcoming pattern from like day 8/9 onward....pv just sites over Hudson Bay with way colder than normal air. 

 

 

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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Quote 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

High impact weather potential...A prolonged period of lake effect
snow will likely develop Tuesday night into Wednesday, continuing
through the remainder of the week.

Another strong surface ridge will build into northern Michigan
Saturday night into Sunday, providing a period of dry weather. A
developing potent cyclone is progged to eject out of the Plains into
the western Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday with a rich supply
of moisture. Predominantly rain expected with this system, but
perhaps some snow mixing in at onset. Looks like this system will be
the impetus for a significant pattern change heading into midweek,
as it draws a much colder airmass southward from Canada (the polar
region, for that matter). At the same time, a building anomalous
ridge over the West Coast will allow for persistent deep troughing
over the eastern CONUS. Thus, confidence is rapidly increasing in a
period of colder, snowier weather for northern Michigan beginning
late Tuesday. A prolonged period of lake effect snow is anticipated
to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday, continuing through at least
the rest of the week. This could very well add up to some
respectable snow totals in the favored west to northwest flow
snowbelts.

:wub::mapsnow:

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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46 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

APX has always been that way since I have been following them.

I've always loved APX, their AFD's and the humor they insert.  Even their social media presence is better than MQT.  An office as a whole tho, MQT is great and the interactions I've had with them are always positive.  Their HMT Jim Salzwedel has been to my house a couple times and help me set up my equipment and gave me 2 snow sticks as well. Most of the time their forecasts are spot on as well and they really know the local climate and lake effect, which is what counts imo.  

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tuanis

tuanis

Posted
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On 11/28/2017 at 8:29 PM, blackrock said:

Looks like this weekend will be a great last weekend to get the yard all cleaned up! (Even though the Oaks are extremely late and stubborn in losing the rest of their leaves! Ha) I want to try and get every leaf out though, because I strongly dislike having to see ugly brown leaves sticking out of my beautiful, white snow piles. lol

Yeah, what's up with the oaks this year? We had an incredibly bumper acorn season (a 'mast' year) over here - I was shoveling them out of my beds and it sounded like hailstones hitting the roof for weeks on end. Could that have something to do with the oaks holding their leaves so late? Normally everything is down prior to turkey day. I can't imagine it's weather related - we've had plenty windstorms and some cold weather in late October/early November.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From Buffalo NWS, “Large scale pattern suggests the possibility of numerous high impact lake effect snow events starting late next week or next weekend, and continuing through the middle of December” ❄️❄️❄️

**Fake news****, APX already showed a map and only Michigan is forecasted to see any LES with this cold weather shot.  :D

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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2 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

**Fake news****, APX already showed a map and only Michigan is forecasted to see any LES with this cold weather shot.  :D

The analogs for this upcoming pattern are off the charts with feet and feet of snow. I'm not getting excited until early next week and it's still there. One of the best patterns for big LES events, and it looks to last several weeks.

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

The analogs for this upcoming pattern are off the charts with feet and feet of snow. I'm not getting excited until early next week and it's still there. One of the best patterns for big LES events, and it looks to last several weeks.

12z gfs looks awesome for the entire sub to see a little snow which will be nice.  I'm going out on an early limb and say 60-80" possible in December imby.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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Just now, weatherbo said:

12z gfs looks awesome for the entire sub to see a little snow which will be nice.  I'm going out on an early limb and say 60-80" possible in December imby.

Easily. I would say with that constant cold, and series of clippers riding along that trough, easy 100" in highest spots off all 4 lakes.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm worried about dry air and shear more than the cold, that is a given.

Yes dry air can be an issue especially when pieces of the PV break off and come down and we are left with moisture laden clippers, but even those do pretty well for certain belts. But in the past couple winters we haven't had a sustainable cold pattern for more then a couple weeks without major torches in between. 

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weatherbo

weatherbo

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Easily. I would say with that constant cold, and series of clippers riding along that trough, easy 100" in highest spots off all 4 lakes.

Agree... just a starting point total until we see how things come together over the next few days.  I think normal for my area in December is just north of 50" anyway.

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BeauDodson

BeauDodson

Posted
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On 11/11/2017 at 11:07 PM, Aleksey said:

SE and Mi Winter Wx. I just moved up here about 2 months ago, from Georgia, so all my followers and group chat are from down there.

Hi Aleksey, sorry to bother you.  I attempted a Twitter search, but came up empty.

Can you link me to the page? 

For example mine is https://twitter.com/BeauDodson

Assuming there is an account page.  

Thanks for your time.

Beau

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hawkeye_wx

hawkeye_wx

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2 hours ago, tuanis said:

Yeah, what's up with the oaks this year? We had an incredibly bumper acorn season (a 'mast' year) over here - I was shoveling them out of my beds and it sounded like hailstones hitting the roof for weeks on end. Could that have something to do with the oaks holding their leaves so late? Normally everything is down prior to turkey day. I can't imagine it's weather related - we've had plenty windstorms and some cold weather in late October/early November.

The oaks are a couple weeks late dropping leaves here, as well.  Just in the last week they've begun to unload, so I'm trying to get all my bags filled(to cover non-hardy plants) before winter hits next week.

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