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2017-18 LES Season

josh_4184

By josh_4184,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious...you use a snow blower for a few inches? I'm surprised up there  haha I shovel a few inches, the blower is for the big stuff.

I think he has a huge driveway, and tbh, if you had to shovel every time you received a few inches of snow there, you'd spend half your winter with a shovel in your hand. :D

Late Wed night - Friday event looks good still.... just details to work out.  Before the warmup next week, looks like a decent wintry period.

GFS liking the UP snow belts 

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.thumb.png.c717a1cf284e046ae55ec0b78182dfc6.png

 

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious...you use a snow blower for a few inches? I'm surprised up there  haha I shovel a few inches, the blower is for the big stuff.

Eh, he's probably like me.  When I get a new toy, I'm anxious to play with it. I bought a new riding mower last spring and couldn't wait to cut the grass. Of course, with the record rains we were getting in that period, it needed it often.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Just curious...you use a snow blower for a few inches? I'm surprised up there  haha I shovel a few inches, the blower is for the big stuff.

Lol, I don't normally even bother with clearing/shoveling/blowing a few inches, as in last week, we picked up 8" and I just left it, didn't hurt that it was melting pretty fast as well. Usually the first few snowfalls we get I try to pack down the snow on my driveway to build a "mat" since I have a gravel driveway for most of it.  I am a little anxious to try out the new setup which I know I will get plenty of chances this winter but the first time is always the most sought after. 

I actually see this being a sneaky chance to get several inches through the weekend with the next system as well for my area.

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wishforsnow

wishforsnow

Posted
Posted

Warning put up starting 4 pm tomorrow. 

Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
408 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches, with greater amounts
  up to 13 inches over the higher terrain, are expected.

* WHERE...Keweenaw and Northern Houghton Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
Posted

Always pumped for the first real taste of winter.

Guesses:

Thinking imby 8-10" (outside shot at a foot if winds remain more nnw and not nw).

Like in past events/setups, they'll be a 2' total somewhere around Chatham/Wetmore in east central UP, and if dryer air doesn't sneak in too quick, Porkies-Twin lakes area could top the foot mark.

In the LP, Kalkaska area should be the winner with a foot or more (usually surprise totals in that area in a nnw flow).

 

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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I am thinking 6-8" for my area, this is a pretty tough one as the winds will be changing and never really locked in for a long period. It they lock in longer in the nw or wnw Ill over achieve, but if the NNW lock in, somewhere around kalkaska(131) corridor will get crushed especially with a LES tap.  It seems the NNW flows always do really well at the beginning of the season. 

Regardless definitely pumped as well for the first of hopefully many LES events this winter. 

In the UP I think somewhere around the munisiing  area will see 18+

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slow poke

slow poke

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

The "infamous" Lake Nipigon - Lake Sup - Lake Mich Tap

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_48.png

This is the best setup wind direction wise for our place. When the band starts up in Lake Nipigon then through Lake Sup and finally through Lake Michigan normally one main thin band sets up like a fire hose and pounds the center of Kalkaska co, south west Crawford co and north west Roscommon co. This setup gives us our best lake effect snows for sure, just wish it was happening a few weeks from now. 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
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I'm excited for you guys up in Northern Michigan. This could be the start of a great base for the winter season.

It is looking like our first measurable snowfall(s) will be coming down here over the next several days. Looking at maybe an inch or two of lake effect here tomorrow night and then possibly another inch or two of synoptic snow on Saturday night/Sunday.

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josh_4184

josh_4184

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34 minutes ago, blackrock said:

I'm excited for you guys up in Northern Michigan. This could be the start of a great base for the winter season.

It is looking like our first measurable snowfall(s) will be coming down here over the next several days. Looking at maybe an inch or two of lake effect here tomorrow night and then possibly another inch or two of synoptic snow on Saturday night/Sunday.

Not sure the snow will last past next week, still a little early for my area, but getting closer!

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

NWS digital forecast database calling for 10-20" in the central Upper Peninsula, which is quite a storm. The GFS has about -20C to -23C air at 850mb at the northern end of Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and nearly as cold for Lake Ontario, which is pretty cold for this time of year. You would think that this setup may favor Lake Ontario south side, but maybe not.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Chinook said:

NWS digital forecast database calling for 10-20" in the central Upper Peninsula, which is quite a storm. The GFS has about -20C to -23C air at 850mb at the northern end of Lake Huron/Georgian Bay and nearly as cold for Lake Ontario, which is pretty cold for this time of year. You would think that this setup may favor Lake Ontario south side, but maybe not.

There will be a brief window of favorable conditions just behind the front downwind of Lake Ontario, but winds go to an unfavorable NNW with very dry air pretty quickly which will limit how much they get.  Similar issues downwind of Lake Erie, though a Lake Huron connected band may be able to squeak out 3 or 4" in the higher terrain in extreme NE Ohio or NW PA with nominal amounts elsewhere.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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1 hour ago, OHweather said:

There will be a brief window of favorable conditions just behind the front downwind of Lake Ontario, but winds go to an unfavorable NNW with very dry air pretty quickly which will limit how much they get.  Similar issues downwind of Lake Erie, though a Lake Huron connected band may be able to squeak out 3 or 4" in the higher terrain in extreme NE Ohio or NW PA with nominal amounts elsewhere.

Yeah, extremely dry arctic air. The upper lakes have much better moisture and aided synoptic support. 

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wishforsnow

wishforsnow

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, blackrock said:

Snow certainly coming down at Michigan Tech right now. I love checking out these webcams from across campus. Looking forward to watching the lake effect pile up there!

http://www.mtu.edu/webcams/mid-campus/motion.html

 

 

Good 6 inches in the drive here in Hancock. Road grader came by putting a good pile of snow at the end. Got to wait until 7 am before I can fire up blower due to local noise ordinance.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, wishforsnow said:

Good 6 inches in the drive here in Hancock. Road grader came by putting a good pile of snow at the end. Got to wait until 7 am before I can fire up blower due to local noise ordinance.

Nice, you're probably up to a foot now after the snow all day? We have had snow showers since about 2 this afternoon. Hoping to wake up to some snow on the ground in the morning...won't be much. Enjoy the winter wonderland!

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weatherbo

weatherbo

Posted
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2 minutes ago, blackrock said:

Nice! You're going to have a foot and a half of snow on the season already!

I hope you and Bo are enjoying the winter wonderlands.

It's def beautiful out, but I'm more impressed with the punch this cold is packing, even if it is going to be fleeting.

By morning, should be around 2' for the season. 

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

It's def beautiful out, but I'm more impressed with the punch this cold is packing, even if it is going to be fleeting.

By morning, should be around 2' for the season. 

Whew! Very impressive. Here right along the Lake Michigan coast we are to get down to 20 tonight. Pretty impressive considering Lake Michigan is near 50 degrees!

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