BuffaloWeather Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 I posted quite a bit of my thoughts on the NWS changing up its Advs/Warnings. I think it was fine the way it was. Lake effect snow ads/warnings have a different meaning in Buffalo than Winter Storm Ads/Warnings. People take anything with lake effect before it more seriously and justifiably so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 Picked up an inch or so, might get a couple more before the sun comes up. Not a bad start to the LES season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Had very large graupel showers throughout the day/evening here. This evening it came down hard enough to cover the ground several different times with light coverings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 12 hours ago, OHweather said: Some of the eastern region offices (Cleveland, Buffalo, Binghamton) will still issue Lake Effect Snow Warnings for this winter, but advisories from those offices (and all offices) are only Winter Weather Advisories now. I suspect it's only a matter of time before the eastern offices lose their Lake Effect Snow warnings, but that's unsubstantiated conjecture on my part. Now that it's over I will say that the situation between offices in Michigan especially was a mess and at times almost childish. From what I heard GRR led the push the eliminate lake effect products starting a few winters ago and APX eventually caught on. MQT and DTX (and LOT and I believe IWX for a time) kept issuing them, which created some situations (especially in the UP where there's one APX country next to all MQT counties) where there would be a winter storm warning for one county from one office next to a lake effect snow warning for the neighboring county for another office. I know some media mets hated that if it happened in their market. There was also a time two winters ago when GRR, after not issuing a lake effect product for at least a year, issued a lake effect snow advisory out of the blue(while APX issued a WWA). I asked a met I know what happened and he said from his understanding a forecaster at GRR was irritated at something in the office and issued the lake effect product out of spite. It's funny how a product type caused issues for two solid winters, and I personally am irritated that the consolidation camp won. It screams to me trying anything to fix a system that isn't necessarily broken and not thinking it through. Consolidating products will do absolutely ZERO to make the public pay more attention, and more educated users (and heck even some the public) in lake-effect-prone areas know the difference between synoptic snow and lake effect snow. Perhaps this is the wrong train of thought and is me taking out years of customer service frustration, but if higher priority users in LES areas that use weather info were confused about the products, which I'm sure was the case somehow, that's on them to learn the difference because it's such an easy thing to do that would make everyone else's life easier. I liked the separate headlines for lake effect events vs. synoptic events. Most people around here seem to assume that any time it snows, the "lake effect is involved." Thus the separate headlines probably don't matter. I mean much of the time, the lake is involved in some way. But, as you know from living in a lake effect area as well, it is often pretty simple to determine whether a snowfall is lake effect or synoptic just by observing moisture content, fluff factor, and compaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Saw the first flakes of the season! Currently 34° and snow! Rain and heavy at times all night transitioned to snow little over an hour ago! Light accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces. Beautiful to watch come down. Had to wake up early so I wouldn’t miss it, but totally worth it! Can’t wait for LES to start kicking in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Aleksey said: Saw the first flakes of the season! Currently 34° and snow! Rain and heavy at times all night transitioned to snow little over an hour ago! Light accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces. Beautiful to watch come down. Had to wake up early so I wouldn’t miss it, but totally worth it! Can’t wait for LES to start kicking in! 'grats on scoring your 1st WMI flakes, and let's get #buried this winter! Only seen flurries so far, it's all staying north of 94 so far this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 Picked up close to 6" so far, was getting hammered, 1"+ an hour on my way into work, roads were pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 50 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Picked up close to 6" so far, was getting hammered, 1"+ an hour on my way into work, roads were pretty bad. Morning from the UP! I'm dreaming of a white Christmas...(um) Halloween! Heavy snow from 930 until 3 or 4 then let up. 6.2" fell here .59" liquid. MQT had nearly 6" as well. At the foot mark for the season already! snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Almost an inch of graupel here, if that counts. Thunder and lightning all night, was tough to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: Morning from the UP! I'm dreaming of a white Christmas...(um) Halloween! Heavy snow from 930 until 3 or 4 then let up. 6.2" fell here .59" liquid. MQT had nearly 6" as well. At the foot mark for the season already! snow! Ha, trick or treating should be interesting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: 'grats on scoring your 1st WMI flakes, and let's get #buried this winter! Only seen flurries so far, it's all staying north of 94 so far this morning. Man it was something else! Heavy lake effect snow squalls from about 9:30-10:30. I wish I could post a video to show you guys! Huge wet flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Even up north, any substantial accums in October seem like a bonus (though I know it's not extremely rare). Glad some areas were able to cash in. Now let's do it again in a few weeks (with a slightly different wind direction down here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Nice, guys! We have been getting snow/graupel/sleet showers all morning (and yesterday evening.) The lake is certainly making it tough to see complete dendrites though. GRR continues to say only "rain showers" today, but the precip has been pretty much in wintry form all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, blackrock said: Nice, guys! We have been getting snow/graupel/sleet showers all morning (and yesterday evening.) The lake is certainly making it tough to see complete dendrites though. GRR continues to say only "rain showers" today, but the precip has been pretty much in wintry form all morning. Agreed! We’ve had winter Wx all morning and very heavy at times just east of GRR. It’s been a beautiful sight! Can’t wait for LES to start cranking up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Aleksey said: Agreed! We’ve had winter Wx all morning and very heavy at times just east of GRR. It’s been a beautiful sight! Can’t wait for LES to start cranking up! You're already in Lake effect season. Your best LES usually comes at the end of November and December. Then, as the lake gets colder and starts to freeze up, my LES season really kicks in during the months of December and January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 39 minutes ago, blackrock said: You're already in Lake effect season. Your best LES usually comes at the end of November and December. Then, as the lake gets colder and starts to freeze up, my LES season really kicks in during the months of December and January. Yeah I can’t wait! Once January comes we get those clipper systems and heavy snow storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 1 hour ago, OHweather said: Even up north, any substantial accums in October seem like a bonus (though I know it's not extremely rare). Glad some areas were able to cash in. Now let's do it again in a few weeks (with a slightly different wind direction down here) Average snow for the entire month of Oct at MQT is 6"... after today's snow I think they stand at 8.8". So yeah, def a nice start to the seaon! It's weird, snow already feels normal again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted October 31, 2017 Author Share Posted October 31, 2017 Picked up about 8" since last night, hard to tell as it is melting from the ground up due to the ground warmth and daylight. Still snowing at a pretty good clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 The Weather Channel just messaged me asking for permission to use my video live on air and online with full rights to my name. Weather Nation already aired my video on live TV earlier this morning! What a day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 3 hours ago, weatherbo said: Average snow for the entire month of Oct at MQT is 6"... after today's snow I think they stand at 8.8". So yeah, def a nice start to the seaon! It's weird, snow already feels normal again. That's a pretty good month. 3 weeks of warmth and a lot of dry weather followed by enough snow in one week to push you above normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 Here is a few pics from the first snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Nice pictures. It's like a whole different world. Down here, a majority of our trees have leaves and they are mostly still green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 On 11/1/2017 at 10:00 AM, IWXwx said: Nice pictures. It's like a whole different world. Down here, a majority of our trees have leaves and they are mostly still green. What is really crazy is that my office in Bellaire about 25 miles to my west looks like this outside. Its amazing what a few miles closer to the lake and much less elevation do to to the weather up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: Nice pictures. It's like a whole different world. Down here, a majority of our trees have leaves and they are mostly still green. We have passed peak here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Wind and snow combined should make this interesting! Could see a foot. Better chances of snow for all areas on Wed night as shortwave crosses and cold front drops through ushering in push of chilly air with h85 temps dropping blo -13c on Thu morning then toward -20c by Thu night. Large scale lift and moisture with the shortwave along with NW winds and delta t/s over 20c will set stage for round of potentially significant lake enhanced snow for areas favored by NNW- NW winds. Enhancing factors to the lake effect snow includes cyclonic/converget low-level NNW-NW winds with wave of sfc low pressure forming on the front by Thu morning over eastern Lk Superior/eastern U.P., minimal shear due to unidirectional flow in the convective layer and stronger lift within the DGZ suggesting a fluffier snow. Gusty northwest winds 20 to 30 mph near Lk Superior and the higher SLR snow favors blowing snow and reduced vsby as well. Overall a period of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow seemslikely along with poor vsby due to blowing snow. Confidence is increasing in need for winter weather headlines for late Wed night through Thu night/Fri AM time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 1 hour ago, weatherbo said: Wind and snow combined should make this interesting! Could see a foot. Better chances of snow for all areas on Wed night as shortwave crosses and cold front drops through ushering in push of chilly air with h85 temps dropping blo -13c on Thu morning then toward -20c by Thu night. Large scale lift and moisture with the shortwave along with NW winds and delta t/s over 20c will set stage for round of potentially significant lake enhanced snow for areas favored by NNW- NW winds. Enhancing factors to the lake effect snow includes cyclonic/converget low-level NNW-NW winds with wave of sfc low pressure forming on the front by Thu morning over eastern Lk Superior/eastern U.P., minimal shear due to unidirectional flow in the convective layer and stronger lift within the DGZ suggesting a fluffier snow. Gusty northwest winds 20 to 30 mph near Lk Superior and the higher SLR snow favors blowing snow and reduced vsby as well. Overall a period of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow seemslikely along with poor vsby due to blowing snow. Confidence is increasing in need for winter weather headlines for late Wed night through Thu night/Fri AM time. Not as bullish down my way but could see some decent LES as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 APX seems a little more interested in the LES parameters later this week, may get a few inches. Ready to try out the new snow blower. Quote SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 311 PM EST Mon Nov 6 2017 ...Accumulating snow, windy and cold Thursday... Rather quiet weather will continue through Wednesday evening as surface high pressure ridges in from the west. The weather is then expected to go downhill after that as an arctic cold front moves through northern Michigan early Thursday. This should result in a period of snow and wind along with cold temperatures Thursday. Add in some lake enhancement off of the Great Lakes as over lake instability really takes off (lake-850 mb delta ts of well into the 20s) and things could really get interesting. This could potentially easily lead to a few inches of snow accumulation across some areas (mainly in the snowbelts along and west of interstate 75). Temperatures will be a little milder Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures on Thursday should be falling through the 30s on into the 20s by evening. We may even have some blowing and drifting snow issues Thursday depending upon how it all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Local mets are starting to discuss the possibility of our first couple inches of Lake Effect Snow coming Thursday into Friday here along Lake Michigan. Regardless of whether we do get the snow or not, this is going to be a good week for getting the ground colder for future snowfalls to last longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 1 hour ago, blackrock said: Local mets are starting to discuss the possibility of our first couple inches of Lake Effect Snow coming Thursday into Friday here along Lake Michigan. Regardless of whether we do get the snow or not, this is going to be a good week for getting the ground colder for future snowfalls to last longer. Strong to extreme delta T setup. Inversion heights not spectacular but could be a nice little warm-up for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 First true taste of winter coming for most favored lake belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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