2017-18 LES Season

[Aleksey]

15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Welcome to SWMI and yeah, #MIrockswinter!  I'm a fellow LES belt fringe-rider two counties south. Looks like Marshall and Saranac share the 48-60" annual avg contour per this map. Looking forward to a much better season after the past 2. Not sure how a snow-lover survives in GA, but that's done and you picked a great time to come north. I just began last winter to track what % of my snow was LES and last year was really favorable (45% LES) with the unusually frequent WNW flow which is prime down here along 94 combined with the warm lake. But if I had to estimate, I'd say typically only ~30-35% of my total comes via LES. At 80 miles inland, I'm just too far away most times. 

This is a very good map, thanks!! Yeah I’ve heard reports of 48” all the way up to 80” for my area lol but I can’t wait and it’s only a mattter of time before I get my first snowfall! I work over in Wyoming, so I’ll be closer to the 75” mark out here. The nice cool down is very welcoming and I’m loving the weather this week! Hoping we stay like this or at least not get out of the 50’s for highs. I’ll be up in Traverse city this weekend and am hoping for a couple flakes, but that doesn’t look likely right now.

[hlcater]

35 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

 

This map seems a bit low by a few inches. At least out here it is. Our annual snowfall is ~34" IIRC and I think Iowa city is ~32".

[weatherbo]

22 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

This map seems a bit low by a few inches. At least out here it is. Our annual snowfall is ~34" IIRC and I think Iowa city is ~32".

Yeah, it is.  The little black dot west of Marquette is the MQT WFO in Negaunee.  Their seasonal average is 203", and according to them, my area is in the 220-240" range.  Several areas in the Eastern UP average well over 200" as well. Also, south of the Leelanau peninsula and west of Traverse in N lower averages 180-200"  if I'm correct.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, Aleksey said:

You definitely get more than I do! I am in Saranac, right in between GR and Ionia! Usually GR picks up an annual 70-75” from what I’ve heard. I believe Grand Haven is in the 85” range because you’re closer to the lakes! I can’t wait and am ready for our first snowfall! I’m a big Winter Wx enthusiasts who has a weather group chat on twitter and am always model watching and discussing! I love the beauty of winter and there is no sight more beautiful than the fresh snow falling from the sky! Can’t wait!! And ideas when we could get our first flakes? I’m thinking within the next 2 weeks, nothing accumulating because it’s been too warm, but I’d love to see some flakes flying around! Thanks guys!

The heaviest Lake effect snow often jumps right over the immediate Lakeshore, so that average for GH is probably close. I live several miles inland from the lake, and almost always have more than GH, unless it is a north flow and a band hugs the coast. Average here is 95 to 100 inches.

You are definitely on the fringe of the snowbelt. The best times for you to get lake effect snow are when there is a strong wind that carries the snow bands well eastward. Otherwise, you will often miss out, or just get snowshowers that drop a dusting to 2 inches. It will still be MUCH more wintry than where you moved from!

I agree with you, in that I think we will see our first snowflakes within the next week or so. The last third of October is when we usually catch our first wintry precip. in these parts. It will usually fall in the form of "graupel", which are snow pellets. Similar to sleet, but softer.

[IWXwx]

I also agree with the lowballing map. 34" is the normal 1981-2010 here and the map has us solidly in the 24-30" range.

[BuffaloWeather]

The snowbelt of NE Ohio gets double of what that map indicates. 

[Aleksey]

1 hour ago, blackrock said:

The heaviest Lake effect snow often jumps right over the immediate Lakeshore, so that average for GH is probably close. I live several miles inland from the lake, and almost always have more than GH, unless it is a north flow and a band hugs the coast. Average here is 95 to 100 inches.

You are definitely on the fringe of the snowbelt. The best times for you to get lake effect snow are when there is a strong wind that carries the snow bands well eastward. Otherwise, you will often miss out, or just get snowshowers that drop a dusting to 2 inches. It will still be MUCH more wintry than where you moved from!

I agree with you, in that I think we will see our first snowflakes within the next week or so. The last third of October is when we usually catch our first wintry precip. in these parts. It will usually fall in the form of "graupel", which are snow pellets. Similar to sleet, but softer.

I live just far enough west to still be considered on the LE snowbelt, which is nice! My job is right in the heart of GR so it’s definitely more in the LE snowbelt. I’m ready for some heavy wet flakes haha

[Aleksey]

I’m also roughly 60 miles east from the lake shoreline in Grand Haven!

[Aleksey]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the 18z? Shows some light LES cranking up first couple days of November and a nice widespread Michigan snow around the end of the first week. Yes I know, it’s at the end of the run, but that time frame seems logical for a possibility of some snow, right? 

[dta1984]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The snowbelt of NE Ohio gets double of what that map indicates. 

Good catch!  Around 100" in my neck of the woods.  Probably pushing 125-150 to my north east. Here's to a good season fellas!

[michsnowfreak]

The map shows 36-42 for Detroit which is low but not too bad. Raw data for DTW from 1981-2010 avg is 43.0". Looked up MQT Bo, and dead on..they avg 203.5".

 

It will be VERY interesting to see how the new product DTX will be offering pans out. They will be issuing "Snow Squall Warnings" similar to Thunderstorm warnings. I think this is a GREAT idea. I cant tell you how many times absolute whiteouts hit from the Lake that no one except us weather weenies know are coming. They usually get no fanfare unlike an actual storm.

[weatherbo]

7 hours ago, Aleksey said:

I live just far enough west to still be considered on the LE snowbelt, which is nice! My job is right in the heart of GR so it’s definitely more in the LE snowbelt. I’m ready for some heavy wet flakes haha

Coming from Georgia, and if never living in the north, you are in for winter for certain! Living at the distance from the lake you do, you'll do best with SW lake enhanced events.  The NNW bands that deliver the 100"+ seasonal totals to the more shoreline areas will elude you. Nevertheless, enjoy the snow!

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, Aleksey said:

What’s everyone’s thoughts on the 18z? Shows some light LES cranking up first couple days of November and a nice widespread Michigan snow around the end of the first week. Yes I know, it’s at the end of the run, but that time frame seems logical for a possibility of some snow, right? 

In terms of lake effect, watching the models and what they show can quickly become an emotional roller coaster. Models usually do not do the greatest with predicting lake effect. Just a slight shift in wind direction, wind strength, limited moisture, etc... can blow a lake effect forecast very quickly. That's why this thread is so great...as people point out some factors that may affect the lake effect (that you don't hear about when watching the local news.)

I have to disagree with what Bo said a bit. The best flow for you will be a West wind. SW flow enhancement is excellent for my area up to extreme northern Kent County, to Fremont and Ludington.

[weatherbo]

9 hours ago, blackrock said:

In terms of lake effect, watching the models and what they show can quickly become an emotional roller coaster. Models usually do not do the greatest with predicting lake effect. Just a slight shift in wind direction, wind strength, limited moisture, etc... can blow a lake effect forecast very quickly. That's why this thread is so great...as people point out some factors that may affect the lake effect (that you don't hear about when watching the local news.)

I have to disagree with what Bo said a bit. The best flow for you will be a West wind. SW flow enhancement is excellent for my area up to extreme northern Kent County, to Fremont and Ludington.

I remember being in GR's  in 2007 during a sw lake event and it almost being blizzard for several hours, and when I lived in NW lower, sw events delivered. I've always thought w events that far inland down there were nothing to write home about.

[RogueWaves]

23 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

This map seems a bit low by a few inches. At least out here it is. Our annual snowfall is ~34" IIRC and I think Iowa city is ~32".

 

23 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Yeah, it is.  The little black dot west of Marquette is the MQT WFO in Negaunee.  Their seasonal average is 203", and according to them, my area is in the 220-240" range.  Several areas in the Eastern UP average well over 200" as well. Also, south of the Leelanau peninsula and west of Traverse in N lower averages 180-200"  if I'm correct.

 

23 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I also agree with the lowballing map. 34" is the normal 1981-2010 here and the map has us solidly in the 24-30" range.

 

17 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Good catch!  Around 100" in my neck of the woods.  Probably pushing 125-150 to my north east. Here's to a good season fellas!

Your tax payer dollars at work fellas..   As MichSNfreak noted, it's likely most accurate in areas that get the least LES, and gets further off the mark in the jackpot zones. Back to the GA transplant's backyard and LES. Clippers with a WSW pre-frontal flow should be his best case scenario. A lot like my scenario, when you get that flow it tends to be very transient. Also, daytime sun will often limit a decent flow event to light accumulations, then overnight 12 am to 6 am the streamers will make it further inland and I'll get my typical .75 to 1.5" amounts. Best events in 15 yrs have brought 8-10" amounts to mby, but they are usually more like LehS from the backside of an actual SLP vs pure LES. The next best case is moisture scooped up from Lk Michigan by clippers and carried inland. This will take a 2-4 event and beef it up to a 3-5 event. I've been here long enough to see this play out many times.

[Jonger]

That map and many others always undershoots the average for Alger county.

I have enough experience in those areas to have a bit of a disagreement on averages there.

[josh_4184]

I have never found a very good average map for LES snowfall areas in Michigan besides the map APX has posted which is not completely accurate as well which that put in a disclaimer but does give you a good generalized idea where the heaviest LES targets on a yearly basis.  Many areas where the most LES falls does not have any co-ops to report accurate consistent measurements to the NWS.

 

[TugHillMatt]

22 hours ago, weatherbo said:

I remember being in GR's  in 2007 during a sw lake event and it almost being blizzard for several hours, and when I lived in NW lower, sw events delivered. I've always thought w events that far inland down there were nothing to write home about.

WSW flow is definitely more beneficial for the entire metro Grand Rapids area. It is not very common, but when it happens, it can be intense. I love lake enhanced events that come along with Alberta Clippers (usually). Pure lake effect snow is usually not too exciting in West Michigan unless you are directly underneath narrow bands.

[TugHillMatt]

...And I see I posted something very similar to what Roguewaves talked about...he beat me to it!

[BuffaloWeather]

I wish I could afford all the fancy toys you guys have. 

[josh_4184]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wish I could afford all the fancy toys you guys have. 

Me too 

[josh_4184]

Looks like I may see some white on the ground before November

[BuffaloWeather]

A few degrees colder and we would be having a 3-5' event Tomorrow to Weds. Grats on the first snow bo/josh.

[josh_4184]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A few degrees colder and we would be having a 3-5' event Tomorrow to Weds. Grats on the first snow bo/josh.

You'll get yours thats for sure. 

[OHweather]

The models have trended a bit colder down here over Lake Erie Monday night and Tuesday with 850mb temps of -5 to -6C and 925mb temps a bit below 0C at night and a bit above during the day.  That's getting close to cold enough for some decent accumulations in the highest elevations in SW NY (and possibly eastern Erie County PA) if there's a strong single band as currently expected.  A few degrees colder would be a slam dunk for a significant event with the amount of instability and well-aligned winds for roughly a 24 hour period. 

[OHweather]

And there it is...BUF's first "Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow"...thank goodness the NWS reduced confusion by eliminating LES advisories. 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet lake effect snow expected from 11 PM today to 2 PM
  Tuesday on the hilltops above 1500 feet. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday.
  Tree branches could fall as well. Total wet snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Hilltops above 1500 feet in Wyoming and Southern Erie
  counties.

* WHEN...11 PM today to 2 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times.

[josh_4184]

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

And there it is...BUF's first "Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow"...thank goodness the NWS reduced confusion by eliminating LES advisories. 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet lake effect snow expected from 11 PM today to 2 PM
  Tuesday on the hilltops above 1500 feet. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday.
  Tree branches could fall as well. Total wet snow accumulations
  of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Hilltops above 1500 feet in Wyoming and Southern Erie
  counties.

* WHEN...11 PM today to 2 PM Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times.

Ha, I said the same thing two years ago when Lower Mich (APX/GRR) removed the LES headlines in favor of less confusing winter weather advisories.  Makes zero sense especially since they now need to put LES in their wordings. Is any NWS using LES headlines anymore?

[OHweather]

22 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Ha, I said the same thing two years ago when Lower Mich (APX/GRR) removed the LES headlines in favor of less confusing winter weather advisories.  Makes zero sense especially since they now need to put LES in their wordings. Is any NWS using LES headlines anymore?

Some of the eastern region offices (Cleveland, Buffalo, Binghamton) will still issue Lake Effect Snow Warnings for this winter, but advisories from those offices (and all offices) are only Winter Weather Advisories now.  I suspect it's only a matter of time before the eastern offices lose their Lake Effect Snow warnings, but that's unsubstantiated conjecture on my part. 

Now that it's over I will say that the situation between offices in Michigan especially was a mess and at times almost childish.  From what I heard GRR led the push the eliminate lake effect products starting a few winters ago and APX eventually caught on.  MQT and DTX (and LOT and I believe IWX for a time) kept issuing them, which created some situations (especially in the UP where there's one APX country next to all MQT counties) where there would be a winter storm warning for one county from one office next to a lake effect snow warning for the neighboring county for another office.  I know some media mets hated that if it happened in their market.  There was also a time two winters ago when GRR, after not issuing a lake effect product for at least a year, issued a lake effect snow advisory out of the blue(while APX issued a WWA).  I asked a met I know what happened and he said from his understanding a forecaster at GRR was irritated at something in the office and issued the lake effect product out of spite.  It's funny how a product type caused issues for two solid winters, and I personally am irritated that the consolidation camp won.  It screams to me trying anything to fix a system that isn't necessarily broken and not thinking it through.  Consolidating products will do absolutely ZERO to make the public pay more attention, and more educated users (and heck even some the public) in lake-effect-prone areas know the difference between synoptic snow and lake effect snow.  Perhaps this is the wrong train of thought and is me taking out years of customer service frustration, but if higher priority users in LES areas that use weather info were confused about the products, which I'm sure was the case somehow, that's on them to learn the difference because it's such an easy thing to do that would make everyone else's life easier.  

[josh_4184]

49 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Some of the eastern region offices (Cleveland, Buffalo, Binghamton) will still issue Lake Effect Snow Warnings for this winter, but advisories from those offices (and all offices) are only Winter Weather Advisories now.  I suspect it's only a matter of time before the eastern offices lose their Lake Effect Snow warnings, but that's unsubstantiated conjecture on my part. 

Now that it's over I will say that the situation between offices in Michigan especially was a mess and at times almost childish.  From what I heard GRR led the push the eliminate lake effect products starting a few winters ago and APX eventually caught on.  MQT and DTX (and LOT and I believe IWX for a time) kept issuing them, which created some situations (especially in the UP where there's one APX country next to all MQT counties) where there would be a winter storm warning for one county from one office next to a lake effect snow warning for the neighboring county for another office.  I know some media mets hated that if it happened in their market.  There was also a time two winters ago when GRR, after not issuing a lake effect product for at least a year, issued a lake effect snow advisory out of the blue(while APX issued a WWA).  I asked a met I know what happened and he said from his understanding a forecaster at GRR was irritated at something in the office and issued the lake effect product out of spite.  It's funny how a product type caused issues for two solid winters, and I personally am irritated that the consolidation camp won.  It screams to me trying anything to fix a system that isn't necessarily broken and not thinking it through.  Consolidating products will do absolutely ZERO to make the public pay more attention, and more educated users (and heck even some the public) in lake-effect-prone areas know the difference between synoptic snow and lake effect snow.  Perhaps this is the wrong train of thought and is me taking out years of customer service frustration, but if higher priority users in LES areas that use weather info were confused about the products, which I'm sure was the case somehow, that's on them to learn the difference because it's such an easy thing to do that would make everyone else's life easier.  

I know i found some humor watching my local news mets trying to explain why some counties were LES warnings while others for Winter Storm warnings in the UP. And actually I believe APX last year began using LES headlines again for the couple counties in Eastern UP they cover because of the confusion. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Oh what could have been 6' of snow.