homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, that was a pretty significant shift from the 12z run. Not a very high confidence setup (maybe even lower than usual for LES). Also 21z RAP is definitely closer to WI shore thus far in the run compared to 18z, we shall see what the rest of the run shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, (((Will))) said: Pictures after the past day: Crazy. What's your depth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Erie, PA - From GoErie.com at 1:59pm today (12/30) Another snowstorm pounded northern Erie County late Friday night and Saturday, dumping more than 16 inches of new snow at Erie International Airport as of 1 p.m. Saturday. A total of 82.3 inches has fallen since Christmas Eve and 119.3 inches since Dec. 1, according to the National Weather Service. Historic for Erie, doubt that total ever gets beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 21z RAP showing the LES band sitting right by the IL shore for over 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, homedis said: 21z RAP showing the LES band sitting right by the IL shore for over 5 hours Tease On another note, if any snow does make it that far west, it's likely going to be extremely cold while snowing as the flow should still be blowing offshore unless the mesolow comes a lot farther west than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Tease On another note, if any snow does make it that far west, it's likely going to be extremely cold while snowing as the flow should still be blowing offshore unless the mesolow comes a lot farther west than expected. Don't worry, I'm preparing to be disappointed tomorrow as usual :') Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 At this point, happy with mood flakes tomorrow, very pleased with anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Yeah, that was a pretty significant shift from the 12z run. Not a very high confidence setup (maybe even lower than usual for LES).Add 18z HRRR-x to the list. A very close pass to central Lake County, brushes eastern portion and then 5-6 hours over Porter County. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Add 18z HRRR-x to the list. A very close pass to central Lake County, brushes eastern portion and then 5-6 hours over Porter County. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 22z HRRR is still coming in but it is substantially farther west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 22z HRRR is still coming in but it is substantially farther west so far. That run looks good for Cook and Lake (IN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, homedis said: That run looks good for Cook and Lake (IN) Trending more favorably at least. Gonna be glued to it tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Trending more favorably at least. Gonna be glued to it tonight lol Agreed. Same here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, homedis said: Agreed. Same here haha HRRR forecast sounding from within the band. Impressive omega (pink lines on left) centered around 1 km with some of this better lift in the DGZ. The mesolow of course adds uncertainty but if the brunt of the band comes onshore, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 00z HRRR is even better for NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 45 minutes ago, homedis said: 00z HRRR is even better for NE IL I'd like to see it bring more of the heart of the band on shore. So far these runs are basically peripheral effects. If nothing else, I think it's looking increasingly possible/likely that the core does come onshore somewhere in the LOT cwa, with Porter county most favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 A few cool images of the meso-low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Eye of the Hurriblizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Multiple lake effect snow bands have developed from Lorain to Cleveland to the Lake/Asthabula County line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'm getting 3-4" per hour rates in that band east of CLE. Over 5" since 7:30pm. This is pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'd like to see it bring more of the heart of the band on shore. So far these runs are basically peripheral effects. If nothing else, I think it's looking increasingly possible/likely that the core does come onshore somewhere in the LOT cwa, with Porter county most favored. 02z HRRR get's the main band right to Racine, WI. Will the west trend ever end?? lol! Brings about 1" to my area with 2"+ extremely close off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 855 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017 .UPDATE... 855 PM CST Main concern is lake effect snow/mesolow trends on Sunday. Had earlier issued a Wind Chill Advisory for portions of the CWA as multiple sites fell below criteria due to a quick temperature drop early this evening. Clouds from the next approaching clipper type wave have overspread the area and resulted in rising temperatures in some locations. Not planning any changes to the Wind Chill Advisory at this time. Regarding the clipper type wave, light snow or flurries remains possible with it overnight into tomorrow morning, with a low but better chance for anything more than a dusting (up to a few tenths or so) appearing to be mainly south of I-80. Turning to the primary concern, lake effect snow associated with the prominent mesolow evident on regional radar mosaic along and off the northern lower MI shore. Have been closely monitoring radar and guidance trends with the mesolow. Overall trend, including on latest HRRR runs and on 00z 12km and 3km NAM has been a westward shift of the mesolow into Sunday morning and an increasing chance for a period of snow clipping northeast Illinois. The position of the mesolow is also important with respect to snow potential and associated impacts into northwest Indiana into the afternoon hours. Have become more concerned for at least a few hours of snow and some accumulation, particularly in northern/northeastern Porter County, though north central/northeast Lake County IN could get clipped as well. Thermodynamics will needless to say be excellent, so more than an hour or two of snow band residence time will increase potential for more significant accums and impacts and midnight shift possibly needing to issue a headline. This forecast remains lower confidence and fraught with uncertainty. However, for now, given what can be gleaned from trends, will be bumping up PoPs and QPF/accums and issuing a SPS and graphic for the web and social media to ramp up the message of possible travel impacts on Sunday. Castro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I remember first eyeing this event up on a crazy 180'ish hr run of the GEM that went to town on the west side of the lake. I thought of bringing it up to, Hoosier. It was a fun and consistent signal to follow from so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 LOT should not be handling Lake and Porter Indiana counties as part of thier forecast zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Got to say that mesolow that made landfall at Marquette was pretty amazing looking on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svogel Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT should not be handling Lake and Porter Indiana counties as part of thier forecast zones. I agree that lake effect snows give Lake and Porter Counties a very different winter character from the rest of Chicagoland, but that is only a small part of the year. Otherwise, they fit much better with Chicago than they would with any other wx office since those two counties are part of the Chicago metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The band over the northern/central part of the lake looks about 10-15 miles west of where the 4z HRRR had it at this point. The 00z 3 km NAM appears to have a better handle on the location of that band. However, the 3 km NAM is too far east with the activity over southeast Lake Michigan. The 3 km had it onshore in southwest lower MI, but it is currently offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 2 hours ago, UMB WX said: I remember first eyeing this event up on a crazy 180'ish hr run of the GEM that went to town on the west side of the lake. I thought of bringing it up to, Hoosier. It was a fun and consistent signal to follow from so far out. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 The band over the northern/central part of the lake looks about 10-15 miles west of where the 4z HRRR had it at this point. The 00z 3 km NAM appears to have a better handle on the location of that band. However, the 3 km NAM is too far east with the activity over southeast Lake Michigan. The 3 km had it onshore in southwest lower MI, but it is currently offshore.Yeah. The band doesn’t seem to be moving south much anymore now that it lost its “J” shape and straightened out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I have no words for this really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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