Hoosier Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Canadian looks good, though difficult to cling to that model as your only hope This may be one of the rare times I'd rather be somewhere on the WI or IL shore than my own backyard. Looks like at least a somewhat better shot than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This may be one of the rare times I'd rather be somewhere on the WI or IL shore than my own backyard. Looks like at least a somewhat better shot than here. Still don't know if we are gonna have much here either but the 12z NAM 3km does look decent for the IL shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This may be one of the rare times I'd rather be somewhere on the WI or IL shore than my own backyard. Looks like at least a somewhat better shot than here. Eh, I'm less bullish about this opportunity for mby than I was a couple days ago. As you had flagged earlier, potential meso low formation looks to be mucking with the flow of the band, pointing the majority of what makes it to land to NE Indiana and SW Michigan. The rich get richer I suppose. Ill keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best. Meanwhile, enjoy your several inches today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 29 minutes ago, mimillman said: Eh, I'm less bullish about this opportunity for mby than I was a couple days ago. As you had flagged earlier, potential meso low formation looks to be mucking with the flow of the band, pointing the majority of what makes it to land to NE Indiana and SW Michigan. The rich get richer I suppose. Ill keep my fingers crossed and hope for the best. Meanwhile, enjoy your several inches today! The only thing I'm hanging my hopes on is the inherent uncertainty with lake effect setups. But yeah, optimism is waning at least for my area. As far as today, I think I will be lucky to get 3" and wouldn't be surprised to come in slightly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The only thing I'm hanging my hopes on is the inherent uncertainty with lake effect setups. But yeah, optimism is waning at least for my area. As far as today, I think I will be lucky to get 3" and wouldn't be surprised to come in slightly lower. I'd be ecstatic to get 2" today and a nice 6" from lake effect... but that's a far fetched dream. But I agree, it's super hard to pinpoint where the LES band will end up. We'll see who wins the lottery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Couple images from the 12z Euro. Quite a tease. Huge bust potential over a highly populated area on a holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Man I don't envy Chicago area forecasters lol. With such a strong high building in I have to wonder if the offshore component of winds west of the band will be too strong to allow the band to get far inland. May be a near the lake special. Mesolows don't help with confidence, but have to think if anything they wouldn't help with inland penetration into WI/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, OHweather said: Man I don't envy Chicago area forecasters lol. With such a strong high building in I have to wonder if the offshore component of winds west of the band will be too strong to allow the band to get far inland. May be a near the lake special. Mesolows don't help with confidence, but have to think if anything they wouldn't help with inland penetration into WI/IL. I think it depends on where the mesolow is. If it's farther west over the lake, then I think it would help get that band farther onshore in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think it depends on where the mesolow is. If it's farther west over the lake, then I think it would help get that band farther onshore in those areas. Yes that's a good point. Farther north though or east wouldn't be good as it'd tend to pull/push the band away from the western shoreline. And it's definitely hard to pin down before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Looking closer at the Euro, it does appear to be hinting at mesolow development -- well defined in the pressure/wind fields. The 12z run brings it to shore in Lake/Porter county Indiana. Pretty neat to see multiple models hinting at the development, with some differences on placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 Meso-low off Lk Ontario dropped a surprise 3" of 30:1 fluff on my driveway today. 2nd decent December for snow in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Meso-low off Lk Ontario dropped a surprise 3" of 30:1 fluff on my driveway today. 2nd decent December for snow in a row. Looks like we'll finish the month above average snow wise. Couple small events, nothing major, plus the extreme cold made this a textbook December imo. Keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 00z NAM keeps all the LES off shore... disappointed but not surprised haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Euro looks to be the only model supportive of some sort of lake effect event making it to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Euro looks to be the only model supportive of some sort of lake effect event making it to land. Looked to me like the GEM did too, but more in Wisconsin (maybe you are just talking Illinois?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Lake effect snow currently from Lorain to Conneaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 so Erie received all this snow (65 plus inches) and the peak depth was around 30 inches on the 26th??? is it measured every 10 minutes???? geez a 65 inch snowstorm should produce a peak depth of 50 inches even with those ratios no?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Picked up 9" since yesterday. Too cold right now though, wishing for a warm up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Lake effect snow vortex, blizzard conditions with 14 degrees, 1/4 mile visibility, +SN, and 60mph wind gusts at Marquette-Sawyer (near Princeton on this map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chinook said: Lake effect snow vortex, blizzard conditions with 14 degrees, 1/4 mile visibility, +SN, and 60mph wind gusts at Marquette-Sawyer (near Princeton on this map) Looks like a mini tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 12z Euro suggests a good hit in Porter county IN tomorrow, but basically nothing else is that far west. Close enough though for LOT to be on their toes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 There was an extremely narrow LES band last night that dumped 2-4" along/north of the I-696 corridor, according to the storm reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 HRRR with the nice band lurking offshore at the end of the run. As with many other models, this is also hinting at a mesolow. What you'd want to see if you're along the IL shore or where I am is for this low to be positioned more over the central or even western part of the lake to drive the band onshore. No model is indicating that at this point but it's still worth keeping an eye on as the ramifications of a farther west placement would be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 HRRR with the nice band lurking offshore at the end of the run. As with many other models, this is also hinting at a mesolow. What you'd want to see if you're along the IL shore or where I am is for this low to be positioned more over the central or even western part of the lake to drive the band onshore. No model is indicating that at this point but it's still worth keeping an eye on as the ramifications of a farther west placement would be significant.That band is super close to the IL shore too so its nothing to throw out completely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, homedis said: That band is super close to the IL shore too so its nothing to throw out completely at this point. The latest RAP does have the western edge of the band kissing the WI/IL shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Fwiw, 18z GFS does bring some snow onto the WI/IL shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The latest RAP does have the western edge of the band kissing the WI/IL shore. Just saw that yeah 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Fwiw, 18z GFS does bring some snow onto the WI/IL shore. lol, better than nothing Overall though, more models are hinting at landfall in the IL and WI shoreline which is obviously a good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 The 18z 3km NAM likes Porter County and clips eastern Lake County from mid morning through early-mid afternoon. Looks like it tries to brush the IL shore too. I'm doing the public forecast updates this evening at LOT, will be closely monitoring trends.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 Quote The big question will be how far west the meso low will meander. Trends continue to favor it staying offshore of Wisconsin/Illinois but will have to watch this carefully as this is something not easily forecast. Will continue with the thought that the lake snow band/meso low will remain offshore of the forecast area and then possibly move onshore across far northeast Porter County or even east of there later Sunday afternoon. This was written in the LOT AFD update at 2:24pm, very interested in the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2017 Share Posted December 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 18z 3km NAM likes Porter County and clips eastern Lake County from mid morning through early-mid afternoon. Looks like it tries to brush the IL shore too. I'm doing the public forecast updates this evening at LOT, will be closely monitoring trends. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah, that was a pretty significant shift from the 12z run. Not a very high confidence setup (maybe even lower than usual for LES). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.