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2017-18 LES Season

josh_4184

By josh_4184,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

We used to run an in house WRF but don't anymore, we stopped in 2016. It's pretty much discouraged by HQ with all the R & D into national high res guidance.

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Ah, no wonder I can't find the WRF that IWX used to run. I had a link to it at one time, now it's dead.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

Posted
Posted
Ah, no wonder I can't find the WRF that IWX used to run. I had a link to it at one time, now it's dead.
I liked the IWX WRF a lot for LES forecasting, was sad to see it go. Some offices still do run their own WRFs. One prominent example is the Burlington VT office.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

I liked the IWX WRF a lot for LES forecasting, was sad to see it go. Some offices still do run their own WRFs. One prominent example is the Burlington VT office.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Not a big fan of the Burlington WRF, lots of posters in upstate use it for LES. IMO it's the worst model out there, rarely ever correct.

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homedis

homedis

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The March 2017 event was very impressive, but this has to be the event you're thinking of: https://www.weather.gov/lot/2014jan22

 

January 2 and 21-22, 2014 were the most impressive pure LES events on the IL side (1/21-22 was also the most impressive NW IN event) since December 25-26, 2010, so they are pretty rare. Hopefully Sunday evolves favorably.

 

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Yes, it was the Jan 21-22 event! I'm also shocked that I forgot about the March 2017 event... 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, homedis said:

Yes, it was the Jan 21-22 event! I'm also shocked that I forgot about the March 2017 event... 

I certainly haven't forgotten.  :snowing:

Anyway, not a whole lot of clarity on the 12z runs with some guidance keeping the band mostly offshore and focused more into southwest MI and clipping IN.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

I was looking at Erie's F6, kinda fascinated by how much snow they have gotten. We are all well aware of how LES settles at a fast rate. Not to mention the deeper the snow the easier it is to settle. But something is not adding up in their f6 this month when comparing their precip, snowfall, and snow depth. From Dec 7-13th, they got 20.9" of snow on 1.48" liquid, but the max depth was only 4". The warmest temp during this time was 33F. On the 15th they started the day with 3" on the ground, got 13.2" on 0.94" liquid the next 2 days, and their depth maxed at 7". So in total, from Dec 7-16th, they reported 34.6" of snow on 2.46" of liquid equivalent - during this time the max temp was 33F and the max snow depth just 7", and by the 19th it was completely gone after a few days in the 40s.

 

From Dec 25-27 they received 64.1" of snow on 2.90" liquid but "just" 23" on the ground.

 

Anyone in or near Erie that can confirm this? Again, I don't know what is wrong. They could be guessing on the liquid equivalent, or they could be measuring every hour, or the depths could be way low. Idk which one it is, but something doesn't add up!

 

 

 

 

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was looking at Erie's F6, kinda fascinated by how much snow they have gotten. We are all well aware of how LES settles at a fast rate. Not to mention the deeper the snow the easier it is to settle. But something is not adding up in their f6 this month when comparing their precip, snowfall, and snow depth. From Dec 7-13th, they got 20.9" of snow on 1.48" liquid, but the max depth was only 4". The warmest temp during this time was 33F. On the 15th they started the day with 3" on the ground, got 13.2" on 0.94" liquid the next 2 days, and their depth maxed at 7". So in total, from Dec 7-16th, they reported 34.6" of snow on 2.46" of liquid equivalent - during this time the max temp was 33F and the max snow depth just 7", and by the 19th it was completely gone after a few days in the 40s.

 

From Dec 25-27 they received 64.1" of snow on 2.90" liquid but "just" 23" on the ground.

 

Anyone in or near Erie that can confirm this? Again, I don't know what is wrong. They could be guessing on the liquid equivalent, or they could be measuring every hour, or the depths could be way low. Idk which one it is, but something doesn't add up!

 

 

 

 

From someone that lives near Erie.

Was at the Park I work at today clearing snow, which is located right at the entrance to Presque Isle. Afterwards, visited lakeshore communities from Fairview, Millcreek, into Erie City proper. I think without question the snowfall totals at the airport were overdone. I can say with quite a bit of certainty that there is no way the city got anywhere near that amount. The time lapse that BuffaloWeather posted by the Arena in downtown Erie shows some nice snow, but not 50-60"imo. Once you get back west toward the airport, there was more snow - did not measure but i guess some 24-36" depth. I think the official airport snow-depth now is only at 28". The piles after plowing, the walkways and driveways after snow blowing, certainly do not indicate to me that the area received 60" of snow since Sunday night.

Route 430 in Harborcreek and Greenfield townships, with runs sort of parallel with I-90 just east southeast of it, seemed to have the most snow.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I was looking at Erie's F6, kinda fascinated by how much snow they have gotten. We are all well aware of how LES settles at a fast rate. Not to mention the deeper the snow the easier it is to settle. But something is not adding up in their f6 this month when comparing their precip, snowfall, and snow depth. From Dec 7-13th, they got 20.9" of snow on 1.48" liquid, but the max depth was only 4". The warmest temp during this time was 33F. On the 15th they started the day with 3" on the ground, got 13.2" on 0.94" liquid the next 2 days, and their depth maxed at 7". So in total, from Dec 7-16th, they reported 34.6" of snow on 2.46" of liquid equivalent - during this time the max temp was 33F and the max snow depth just 7", and by the 19th it was completely gone after a few days in the 40s.

 

From Dec 25-27 they received 64.1" of snow on 2.90" liquid but "just" 23" on the ground.

 

Anyone in or near Erie that can confirm this? Again, I don't know what is wrong. They could be guessing on the liquid equivalent, or they could be measuring every hour, or the depths could be way low. Idk which one it is, but something doesn't add up!

 

 

 

 

Not all LES is high qpf stuff. The 2 events I received earlier in December were 1:12 ratios, usually early in the season that occurs.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

It's odd. I've lived up here in the Keweenaw snow belt and I've spent over a year living between Painesville and Perry, Ohio...which are roughly in the same snow belt as Erie, PA. I have noticed a strange thing where the snow will look like it's really coming down hard - but it won't accumulate. This always happened in Ohio and it does not happen up here in Calumet. In fact, just the other day you would have sworn we got over a foot of snow in Painesville, Ohio...but at most there was 3-4 inches on the ground.

 

Maybe it's the higher sun angle, maybe warmer ground, idk. But that's why I used to call it fake effect snow back on wright weather/eastern. It just doesn't add up the way it does up here in Calumet or in Maine.

Maybe soil warmth.  Hard to believe the sun angle would be the main culprit in late December.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, (((Will))) said:

It's odd. I've lived up here in the Keweenaw snow belt and I've spent over a year living between Painesville and Perry, Ohio...which are roughly in the same snow belt as Erie, PA. I have noticed a strange thing where the snow will look like it's really coming down hard - but it won't accumulate. This always happened in Ohio and it does not happen up here in Calumet. In fact, just the other day you would have sworn we got over a foot of snow in Painesville, Ohio...but at most there was 3-4 inches on the ground.

 

Maybe it's the higher sun angle, maybe warmer ground, idk. But that's why I used to call it fake effect snow back on wright weather/eastern. It just doesn't add up the way it does up here in Calumet or in Maine.

How close were you to the lake? It seems like whenever there's higher ratio snow near the lake and it's windy the snow literally blows away and results in very disappointing totals unless it absolutely dumps.  Sometimes the exact same band a few miles farther inland will cause much higher reported amounts. 

As for Erie, the snow was reported to have a near 30:1 ratio and normally it compacts to less than 10:1 on the ground after enough time...I would think maybe immediately after all that fell the depth would pass 2 feet though, at least briefly.  Some pics I saw from that area certainly looked like a few feet fell, and a couple spots did report a 40"+ depth in northern Erie County at one point (even this morning Northeast reported a 40" depth). Maybe the totals were overdone a bit, but I'd certainly expect a certain amount of competence out of whoever measures for an official climate site (though there are occasional controversies over it).  

I will say the earlier month numbers have to be wrong somewhere...no way to get that much snow (at a generally lower ratio) with little melting and have those depths.  Hopefully a record setting month isn't tainted because of it. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

LOT/IWX stressing the uncertainty but both mentioning potential for something significant.  

imo, this setup may favor multiple mesolows given the magnitude of instability and relatively weak wind fields. 

3 km NAM has an impressive band over central Lake Michigan at 60 hours, in addition to a nice band over southwest MI/north central IN.

NAMNSTMW_prec_ptype_060.png.b3ff56d4b89c13d0b8186707f28d1b9a.png

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

It's odd. I've lived up here in the Keweenaw snow belt and I've spent over a year living between Painesville and Perry, Ohio...which are roughly in the same snow belt as Erie, PA. I have noticed a strange thing where the snow will look like it's really coming down hard - but it won't accumulate. This always happened in Ohio and it does not happen up here in Calumet. In fact, just the other day you would have sworn we got over a foot of snow in Painesville, Ohio...but at most there was 3-4 inches on the ground.

 

Maybe it's the higher sun angle, maybe warmer ground, idk. But that's why I used to call it fake effect snow back on wright weather/eastern. It just doesn't add up the way it does up here in Calumet or in Maine.

My thinking is that sometimes small dendrites, plates, and rod-shaped snowflakes may make you think the snow is coming down a lot. There's a lot of light scattering in the air. The airport ASOS shows a low visbility due to lots of light scattering. But there's not that much QPF there and the small flakes can pack down more (maybe) than larger dendrites, for a 10:1 or slightly higher snow:liquid ratio right after the snow has stopped.

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IWXwx

IWXwx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Maybe it's the higher sun angle, maybe warmer ground, idk. But that's why I used to call it fake effect snow back on wright weather/eastern. It just doesn't add up the way it does up here in Calumet or in Maine.

YOU are the one that started that huge debate. Man I remember the arguments that started. Good times.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

LOT/IWX stressing the uncertainty but both mentioning potential for something significant.  

imo, this setup may favor multiple mesolows given the magnitude of instability and relatively weak wind fields. 

3 km NAM has an impressive band over central Lake Michigan at 60 hours, in addition to a nice band over southwest MI/north central IN.

NAMNSTMW_prec_ptype_060.png.b3ff56d4b89c13d0b8186707f28d1b9a.png

I think we see mesolows all over the great lakes the next week, going to be some awesome radar watching. 

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bowtie`

bowtie`

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Carol is near 200" already for the year. She is on pace to break the all time record east of the Rockies. (467")

https://twitter.com/CYerdon

 

She puts up some amazing pictures on her twitter. Will/Bo, you guys should start one for the upper UP. 

 

 

How come she does not post any pics of her snow stick? Is it completely buried now?

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

Here's an interesting take on the Erie PA possibly over-estimated snowfalls. I looked at the CoCoRAHS snowfall totals for all month. Here's what I came up with.

 December 2017 Erie PA CoCoRAHS spotter snow totals
 December 7th-8th: 5.6
 10-11: 1.3
 11-12: 3.2
 12-13: 2.1
 13-14: 2.8
 14-15: trace
 15-16: 5.8
 16-17: 2.5
 23-24: 2.1
 24-25: 3.9
 25-26: 32.4
 26-27: 5.5
 27-28: 2.6
 28-29: trace
 total: 69.8"
 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I expect a look of consternation on Hoosier's face after looking at this morning's NAM runs.

This is a situation where I really miss IWX's WRF

Yeah, no like.  And it's not just the NAMs as the other models show a similar progression/evolution, making it hard for me to find a model to cling to.  :lol:

Have to hope they are a little bit off with the handling of the lake troughing/mesolows.

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mimillman

mimillman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, no like.  And it's not just the NAMs as the other models show a similar progression/evolution, making it hard for me to find a model to cling to.  :lol:

Have to hope they are a little bit off with the handling of the lake troughing/mesolows.

Canadian looks good, though difficult to cling to that model as your only hope :(

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