2017-18 LES Season

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah about that. I was south of the band skiing all day and drove through it on the way there and back. 3-5" per hour all day from Hamburg to Springville to Ellicottville. Only picked up 4-8" here. One of the craziest drives ever.

Jesus

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Jesus

Yeah the belts south of me are over 100" on the year I believe. We are keeping up with the Tug, but Lake Erie will begin to  to freeze this week and the Tug will be kicking for another few months.

[Stebo]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah the belts south of me are over 100" on the year I believe. We are keeping up with the Tug, but Lake Erie will begin to start to freeze this week and the Tug will be kicking for another few months.

Yeah especially if it ends up being as cold as it looks coming up this next week plus.

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah especially if it ends up being as cold as it looks coming up this next week plus.

Yeah, it looks cold and dry. Did you see the 1062 MB high? Is that a record?

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, it looks cold and dry. Did you see the 1062 MB high? Is that a record?

I believe it is close to it.

[Tarheel17]

Driving to see family in Muskegon tomorrow.

Excited to get a few inches of lake effect while there. I was born in Muskegon, so it brings back numerous childhood memories.

[josh_4184]

Been dumping for the past several days, only hindrance lately has been the extreme cold killing the DGZ.

[MAIDEsNow]

Erie, PA set a new snowfall record yesterday - 34" at the airport. Previous record was 26.5" back in 1944. The original report at 5pm was 13.6", then they upped it to 21" to due some measurement error. From 5pm til midnight, managed the other 14". They received another 6" overnight, 40" total for the event so far. Webcam currently still shows heavy snow at airport. 

Primarily a lakeshore event, drops off dramatically south of I-90 to around 2', then 9" in the southern part of the county imby (rather disappointing).

[nwohweather]

 

Is this from your house? My in laws are from right in between Brighton and Hamburg off Chilson and that’s where I’ve been most of the holidays. Cool area for sure

[nokywx]

Is it safe to say the Erie belts would equal the Tug in annual snowfall if not for the shallowness of Erie?  I guess the Tug is in a little better position synoptically, but sometimes it seems that Erie snows are just as, if not a little more, numerous early in the season.

[hawkeye_wx]

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, nokywx said:

Is it safe to say the Erie belts would equal the Tug in annual snowfall if not for the shallowness of Erie?  I guess the Tug is in a little better position synoptically, but sometimes it seems that Erie snows are just as, if not a little more, numerous early in the season.

The tug has a little better orographic lift then Erie, they also have 3 lake connection possibilities. They can get upstream help from Superior/Huron/Ontario at once. It allows for snowfall rates up to 12" per hour in the most extreme bands. If Erie didn't freeze they would be pretty close to Tug totals though. The highest belt south of me averages well over 200" per year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Erie PA picked up over 50" of snow in the last 30 hours with another 1-2' forecasted. They broke the 24 hour and 48 hour record for Pennsylvania. Looks to be the biggest event in their history. 

[Jim Martin]

Lake Effect Snow currently in Lake and far northeast Cuyahoga County.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Nice!

 

Well over 100 inches in Calumet for the season, too. No idea the specifics.

It would be awesome to see a band like the ones that hit your area/the Tug Hill. 

I think closest I've had was last December when Calumet was forecasted to get 2 inches of snowfall but ended up getting 37 inches of snow in 9 hours.

 

 

Yeah it's impossible to predict Lake effect most of the time. I bet it's next to impossible up your way. Any little lift and you get dumped on from nearly every wind direction.

[BuffaloWeather]

Timelapse of Erie PA LES. 

 

[beavis1729]

GFS still showing a slight LE signal for NE IL in 4-5 days...but more muted than a few days ago. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

GFS still showing a slight LE signal for NE IL in 4-5 days...but more muted than a few days ago. 

Still have good parameters, with questions on exact flow, mesolow development, residence time, etc.  I think it's pretty likely there will be a heavy band of snow but that's about it.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

GFS still showing a slight LE signal for NE IL in 4-5 days...but more muted than a few days ago. 

12z Euro on board with a period of LES on the western shore.

[Hoosier]

As long as something like the GFS thermodynamics verifies for this weekend, I see little reason to discount the possibility of a band producing 2 to possibly around 4 inches per hour at peak somewhere from northwest Indiana to the western shores of Lake Michigan, which of course is a good combination for driving on New Years Eve.  Long fetch with upstream connection, and good moisture in a mixed layer at least nearly 10,000 feet deep should favor some very robust rates.  As mentioned, will have to watch for mesolow development to potentially affect organization/location.

[RCNYILWX]

Agree with thoughts for the weekend. Uncertain where the best banding sets up but should go to town where it does. Beyond the weekend, mid next week looks to be the next solid threat on southern LM. The 18z GFS is among the most impressive runs I've ever seen for the southern tip of the lake (~36 hours of heavy snow implied), so that's in all likelihood a worst (or best) case scenario. But the other globals are also hinting at the Wednesday-Thursday period for good parameters.

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[BuffaloWeather]

Lorraine off the tug, pretty close to Redfield 62" in 48 hours.

[RCNYILWX]

00z GEM very impressive for Cook, Will into parts of Lake IN Sunday and Wednesday-Thursday continues to be a period of interest for another good lake effect setup over southwest and southern LM. 00z GFS has lake effect snow extending into parts of central IL on Weds. If an extended duration of well aligned flow can develop, impressive inland penetration is certainly possible with that setup given full fetch of 850 mb winds progged.

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[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lorraine off the tug, pretty close to Redfield 62" in 48 hours.

Man I'd like to see that sometime.

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

00z GEM very impressive for Cook, Will into parts of Lake IN Sunday and Wednesday-Thursday continues to be a period of interest for another good lake effect setup over southwest and southern LM. 00z GFS has lake effect snow extending into parts of central IL on Weds. If an extended duration of well aligned flow can develop, impressive inland penetration is certainly possible with that setup given full fetch of 850 mb winds progged.

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Just curious, do you guys have a model that you run in-house?

[CoalCityWxMan]

34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

00z GEM very impressive for Cook, Will into parts of Lake IN Sunday and Wednesday-Thursday continues to be a period of interest for another good lake effect setup over southwest and southern LM. 00z GFS has lake effect snow extending into parts of central IL on Weds. If an extended duration of well aligned flow can develop, impressive inland penetration is certainly possible with that setup given full fetch of 850 mb winds progged.

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In January 2014 I saw 2" of pure lake effect snow, and I'm ~70 miles inland. Would be cool to pull that off again.

[homedis]

38 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

00z GEM very impressive for Cook, Will into parts of Lake IN Sunday and Wednesday-Thursday continues to be a period of interest for another good lake effect setup over southwest and southern LM. 00z GFS has lake effect snow extending into parts of central IL on Weds. If an extended duration of well aligned flow can develop, impressive inland penetration is certainly possible with that setup given full fetch of 850 mb winds progged.

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We haven't had a high-end lake effect event in NE IL for a while so it would be really cool for it to happen again. I remember when Northbrook got like 8 or 11 inches (I can't remember exactly) from LES a few years back, very exciting times!

[RCNYILWX]

Just curious, do you guys have a model that you run in-house?

We used to run an in house WRF but don't anymore, we stopped in 2016. It's pretty much discouraged by HQ with all the R & D into national high res guidance.

 

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[tuanis]

54 minutes ago, homedis said:

We haven't had a high-end lake effect event in NE IL for a while so it would be really cool for it to happen again. I remember when Northbrook got like 8 or 11 inches (I can't remember exactly) from LES a few years back, very exciting times!

Dude, last March was a beast!

[RCNYILWX]

We haven't had a high-end lake effect event in NE IL for a while so it would be really cool for it to happen again. I remember when Northbrook got like 8 or 11 inches (I can't remember exactly) from LES a few years back, very exciting times!

The March 2017 event was very impressive, but this has to be the event you're thinking of: https://www.weather.gov/lot/2014jan22

 

January 2 and 21-22, 2014 were the most impressive pure LES events on the IL side (1/21-22 was also the most impressive NW IN event) since December 25-26, 2010, so they are pretty rare. Hopefully Sunday evolves favorably.

 

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