BuffaloWeather Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 A few of my favorite pics from last event. This is before the last few days of snow. Has been an awesome last 2 weeks here. Had a 16" event a 20" event and a bunch of smaller 3-6" events. Thundersnow on several occasions during those 2 events. These LES events also have been really low QPF. I have over 3.5" SWE currently. Long range looks good after next week for continued LES chances. Thundersnow video, turn volume up I missed the best thunder =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 Nice pics Buffalo! GFS hammers the LES belts (57"+ my area)through the rest of the year if we can just get through this storm this week unscathed we should be in business for Hell week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted December 18, 2017 Share Posted December 18, 2017 6 hours ago, josh_4184 said: Nice pics Buffalo! GFS hammers the LES belts (57"+ my area)through the rest of the year if we can just get through this storm this week unscathed we should be in business for Hell week. 24+ for OKC? I'll take the under. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 18, 2017 Author Share Posted December 18, 2017 2 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Is there a way to see one of these for the Keweenaw? Doesnt appear so, only sector views are for the area shown, it looks like the nearby ones cut off the Keweenaw as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Euro and GFS now in good agreement about the system end of the week to stay south which is good news for the snowpack as well as a welcome addition for some much needed system snow. Then looks like a decent shot at some good LES afterwards and a couple more systems. Forecast for the north woods looks as well as it has in years for cold and snow for Xmas and New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 ^^^ agree - gonna be a rockin' good holiday season by the looks of things. Perhaps best in many years. Nothin' like a NMI winter at the holidays party. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 9 hours ago, (((Will))) said: ...and I'm stuck in Detroit/Cleveland. =/ That suck Wills, places in NWL will see over a foot as well I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 APX had another great write up this morning Quote Primary Forecast concerns...Wind directions for LES and how cold it will get Sunday through Monday night. First the winds, During Sunday night, the ARW is showing LES to redevelop quickly as the cold air begins to move into the region quickly and the 850-700 mb layer RH increases. The ARW, GFS and ECMWF agree on the basic wind direction with west winds that begin to turn to the northwest by Sunday evening. Winds continue in that fashion through Monday night. This has the possibility for long duration bands. The other concern, as stated, is the temperatures. First, this will be probably the coldest air that we have seen for the season with this stretch expected to stay below normal into the next two weeks. Couple the cold temperatures with the winds and we will be around or below with the wind chills through about Thursday. The second issue with the temperatures is related to the LES. 850 mb temperatures fall to around -25c. That is not a great temperature to produce dendrites, more like powder. However, it`s not as simple to say that with the cold temperatures we get small flakes. With the radical instability, there have been times the internal cloud temperatures warm a bit, and makes for better dendrites. However, low visibility will be the case regardless in the bands. So moderate to possibly heavy snow bands will be possible through the period. However, with all of this cold air we could run into icing on the Great Lakes, especially on Green Bay cutting the Fetch off for west flow situations. Will have to see how this turns out, but it is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I am worried about quite a bit of dry air in the long range for any good LES. That high pressure showing up on some of the globals is insane. Very cold and very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Getting sort of tired of our West-wind lake effect snow events coming with 40 mph wind gusts. We haven't had many the last several years where the strong winds didn't push the best snows over the lakeshore. Have had to rely more on NW wind lake effect and SW flow lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Looking epic. I'm heading back home from Detroit area early the 26th. Will have missed most of it, I think. But look. It's breathtaking. NWL and Munising/east and Keweenaw - awesome. I would hate to live in Escanaba...the banana belt of the UP. I think I'd rather live anywhere else in lower Michigan than have to live such a short distance away from hundreds and hundreds of inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 24, 2017 Author Share Posted December 24, 2017 6 hours ago, (((Will))) said: On my way down from Calumet...the Keweenaw and your area just south of Gaylord had the most snow of the entire trip. Munising was third place...but not really even close to the Keweenaw and the NWL south of Gaylord. Thats the norm, but actually SW of Gaylord around my location is usually higher yet, we generally get 10-15% more snow then Gaylord city area. Picked up about 5" of major "fluff" tonight so far. Tomorrow thru X-Mas looking very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 hours ago, blackrock said: I would hate to live in Escanaba...the banana belt of the UP. I think I'd rather live anywhere else in lower Michigan than have to live such a short distance away from hundreds and hundreds of inches of snow. I echo this sentiment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Definitely looks to be a good signal for a LES convergence band tomorrow between I-94 and I-69. That could add anywhere between another 1-4" here on top of the synoptic snow from today and tonight if it remains stationary long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Tug hill is going to get 5-6'+ with this event. Snowfall rates of 5"+ an hour. Really wish I could chase this one. Should pick up a decent amount here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 This is what I mean when I say I don't live in the snowbelt. Locations south of me always jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is what I mean when I say I don't live in the snowbelt. Locations south of me always jackpot. We all feel really bad for you and the measly 1' of snow you're expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just wow at this. Off of Lake Michigan tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I'd be lying if I said I didn't notice the lake effect potential on the southern end of Lake Michigan about a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 IWX had a report of 1.5" in 15 minutes near SBN with that band last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Hearing from my brother in law and his wife that their drive home to Grand Rapids has been quite rough thru that banding today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'd be lying if I said I didn't notice the lake effect potential on the southern end of Lake Michigan about a week from now. I've been watching it. Unfortunately it's really only the GFS showing it in that sig of a way.Some runs have been 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Holy moly at the 00z GFS. One of the best lake effect signals I have ever seen from that model off of southern Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Holy moly at the 00z GFS. One of the best lake effect signals I have ever seen from that model off of southern Lake Michigan. Definitely brings the next Sunday storm further north and the lake effect afterwards is more oriented towards Indiana rather than Chicago and Milwaukee Edit (10:33pm): Okay it does shift a little into Chicagoland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, homedis said: Definitely brings the next Sunday storm further north and the lake effect afterwards is more oriented towards Indiana rather than Chicago and Milwaukee Edit (10:33pm): Okay it does shift a little into Chicagoland Superb fetch (with upstream connection) with excellent thermodynamics and the band has minimal movement for a good 18-24 hours on that run. That is national guard/emergency type stuff on there haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Superb fetch (with upstream connection) with excellent thermodynamics and the band has minimal movement for a good 18-24 hours on that run. That is national guard/emergency type stuff on there haha. That's insane, I would drive down to see that but I don't think I want to be stranded lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 A town 18 miles southeast of me. Just from today’s lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A town 18 miles southeast of me. Just from today’s lake effect. WTF? What is that, like 36" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: WTF? What is that, like 36" of snow? Yeah about that. I was south of the band skiing all day and drove through it on the way there and back. 3-5" per hour all day from Hamburg to Springville to Ellicottville. Only picked up 4-8" here. One of the craziest drives ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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