TugHillMatt Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 GRR is saying up to 18 inches in places along the Lake Michigan coast by Wednesday morning. Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day! I highly doubt my area gets anywhere near that, as a NW flow is not our most ideal setup...especially if there are only a couple dominant bands. Hoping the winds shift back and forth a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Should get a crack at some lake effect here later Wednesday. Parameters don't look overwhelming and it should be semi-transient, but enough for some accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Picked up about 5" today with the clipper and back end LES that is still coming down. Probably will lengthen up some but not to shabby considering I wasn't expecting more than an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Its really ripping out there, heaviest snow rates I have seen this winter so far easily 1"+ hr. Also winds have really picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Its really ripping out there, heaviest snow rates I have seen this winter so far easily 1"+ hr. Also winds have really picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Did you check out that band in the UP near mqt, that means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Did you check out that band in the UP near mqt, that means business. Yeah, first real shot of true arctic air. Lakes will be firing next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 12, 2017 Author Share Posted December 12, 2017 Woke up with another 5" or so of new snow hard to tell with all the blowing and drifting. Doesn't even look like I snowblowed the driveway last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2017 Share Posted December 12, 2017 Some models are trying to slow/stall the lake band somewhere in northwest Indiana on Thursday. Not really sure about that but something I will be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Goderich ON getting the Huron Hose today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 Friday-Saturday looking like a decent LES event for NW flow areas in the lake belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 There appears to be a coherent LES band from Lake Michigan through all of Ohio and into the WV mountains. There have been a few obs of light snow from places such as Lima, so I think the radar is just overshooting the band in that area. It produced a report of 2" near Columbus and is still generating some occasional pockets of 20-30dBZ echoes on the TCMH radar, which is decent snow when it's this cold. Having spent a few years in Athens in SE Ohio, I actually don't think this is exceedingly rare when the winds are fairly strong/well aligned (favors good inland penetration) and the low-level lapse rates are steep away from the lake (convergence from the band can cause it to keep generating snow without instability off of the lake). Athens never got hit with any real accumulations from LES while I was down there, but we got snow showers from both Erie and Michigan a few times and in a couple of instances there were decent squalls and light accumulations nearby from such a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 6 hours ago, OHweather said: There appears to be a coherent LES band from Lake Michigan through all of Ohio and into the WV mountains. There have been a few obs of light snow from places such as Lima, so I think the radar is just overshooting the band in that area. It produced a report of 2" near Columbus and is still generating some occasional pockets of 20-30dBZ echoes on the TCMH radar, which is decent snow when it's this cold. Having spent a few years in Athens in SE Ohio, I actually don't think this is exceedingly rare when the winds are fairly strong/well aligned (favors good inland penetration) and the low-level lapse rates are steep away from the lake (convergence from the band can cause it to keep generating snow without instability off of the lake). Athens never got hit with any real accumulations from LES while I was down there, but we got snow showers from both Erie and Michigan a few times and in a couple of instances there were decent squalls and light accumulations nearby from such a setup. It looks like the 3KM NAM verified with the streamers reaching well into WV. I mentioned in a post a couple days ago that I've never seen it modeled before, but I do vaguely remember it occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Some uncertainty with the lake effect plume off of southern Lake Michigan later. I am starting to think it could slow/meander around, but possibly just east of me. We shall see. Not much confidence. While the low pressure system continues to the east coast, the lake effect snow engine will continue to run. Delta T`s are forecast to be in the low 20s, and lake induced equilibrium levels will be around 800 mb. Forecast boundary layer winds direct the plume over northwest Indiana and slowly shift the band east through the morning. I currently only have 1-2 inches of snow forecast in NW IN, due to low confidence in exact band placement and how quickly it will shift east. However, if the band remains stationary, snow totals could be higher. Local guidance suggests totals could be up to 6-8 inches especially if the band sits over an area for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Hi-res models now in decent agreement on band stalling somewhere within a few miles of here. Could get a little interesting if that happens and rates are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 And LOT pulls the trigger on an advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 844 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 INZ001-002-141045- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0002.171214T0900Z-171214T1700Z/ Lake IN-Porter- Including the cities of Gary and Valparaiso 844 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...Lake and Porter Counties in northwest Indiana. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 11 AM CST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for widely varying visibility, with visibilities falling below one half mile at times. Snowfall rates up to one inch per hour are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Decent band has taken shape over the lake and into southeast WI at present. Most recent HRRR is even putting the Illinois shore in line for better accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 As the wind turns more westerly, we have some nice big fluffers coming down. Did you get any LES, Hoosier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 We are getting heavier lake effect snow today than we did during our "Winter Storm Warning of 18 inches possible" the other day. This is very common when the air is cold like this and there is barely any wind. The lake effect bands float in off the shore. Big, puffy flakes and beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 2 hours ago, blackrock said: As the wind turns more westerly, we have some nice big fluffers coming down. Did you get any LES, Hoosier? Just a little. I'm not sure if anybody really got advisory amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Picked up about 4" overnight, but been snowing very hard since early this morning. Some spots will probably pick up another 6-10" easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 What has happened to Bo? Haven't seen any updates from him lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: What has happened to Bo? Haven't seen any updates from him lately. Not sure he has been MIA for a few weeks now little surprising as its been pretty active with LES and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 2 hours ago, (((Will))) said: Snowing hard right now in Calumet...just came back from Houghton and the sun was breaking through down there. I don't think they got much that direction, seems to be more from Calumet north to at least Mohawk. Advisory just got extended here for another 24 hours, calling for possibly another 8 inches. They keep seeming to bust on the low end, so hopefully more...tho I'm being greedy, lol. Not much new snow here in Hancock since I blew the drive at 7 am. Just half inch total since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 15, 2017 Share Posted December 15, 2017 E6EE1AE3-BBD7-4191-B882-5E65F94D9A76 by Steve Smithers, on Flickr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 Picked up about a foot of snow so far today not counting last nights 4-5", snowpack over 20" for the first time this winter. Gonna take awhile to clean it up then going to fire up the sled for the first time this year. My area has been under multiple LES banding pushing 2" per hr at times. To bad the bay area freezes so early ever year I would average well over 200" a year damn shallow water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Picked up about a foot of snow so far today not counting last nights 4-5", snowpack over 20" for the first time this winter. Gonna take awhile to clean it up then going to fire up the sled for the first time this year. My area has been under multiple LES banding pushing 2" per hr at times. To bad the bay area freezes so early ever year I would average well over 200" a year damn shallow water. Nice! Enjoy! I have had about 17 inches fall over the past week, but it is so fluffy, it just keeps packing down. Snow depth has been a steady 8 to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 16, 2017 Author Share Posted December 16, 2017 Finally able to clear out after the past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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