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2017-18 LES Season


josh_4184

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GRR is saying up to 18 inches in places along the Lake Michigan coast by Wednesday morning. Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day! I highly doubt my area gets anywhere near that, as a NW flow is not our most ideal setup...especially if there are only a couple dominant bands. Hoping the winds shift back and forth a bit.

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There appears to be a coherent LES band from Lake Michigan through all of Ohio and into the WV mountains.  There have been a few obs of light snow from places such as Lima, so I think the radar is just overshooting the band in that area.  It produced a report of 2" near Columbus and is still generating some occasional pockets of 20-30dBZ echoes on the TCMH radar, which is decent snow when it's this cold.  Having spent a few years in Athens in SE Ohio, I actually don't think this is exceedingly rare when the winds are fairly strong/well aligned (favors good inland penetration) and the low-level lapse rates are steep away from the lake (convergence from the band can cause it to keep generating snow without instability off of the lake).  Athens never got hit with any real accumulations from LES while I was down there, but we got snow showers from both Erie and Michigan a few times and in a couple of instances there were decent squalls and light accumulations nearby from such a setup.  

 

LES Athens.png

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6 hours ago, OHweather said:

There appears to be a coherent LES band from Lake Michigan through all of Ohio and into the WV mountains.  There have been a few obs of light snow from places such as Lima, so I think the radar is just overshooting the band in that area.  It produced a report of 2" near Columbus and is still generating some occasional pockets of 20-30dBZ echoes on the TCMH radar, which is decent snow when it's this cold.  Having spent a few years in Athens in SE Ohio, I actually don't think this is exceedingly rare when the winds are fairly strong/well aligned (favors good inland penetration) and the low-level lapse rates are steep away from the lake (convergence from the band can cause it to keep generating snow without instability off of the lake).  Athens never got hit with any real accumulations from LES while I was down there, but we got snow showers from both Erie and Michigan a few times and in a couple of instances there were decent squalls and light accumulations nearby from such a setup.  

 

LES Athens.png

It  looks like the 3KM NAM verified with the streamers reaching well into WV. I mentioned in a post a couple days ago that I've never seen it modeled before, but I do vaguely remember it occurring.

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Some uncertainty with the lake effect plume off of southern Lake Michigan later.  I am starting to think it could slow/meander around, but possibly just east of me.  We shall see.  Not much confidence.

 

While the low pressure system continues to the east coast, the
lake effect snow engine will continue to run. Delta T`s are
forecast to be in the low 20s, and lake induced equilibrium levels
will be around 800 mb. Forecast boundary layer winds direct the
plume over northwest Indiana and slowly shift the band east
through the morning. I currently only have 1-2 inches of snow
forecast in NW IN, due to low confidence in exact band placement
and how quickly it will shift east. However, if the band remains
stationary, snow totals could be higher. Local guidance suggests
totals could be up to 6-8 inches especially if the band sits over
an area for awhile.
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And LOT pulls the trigger on an advisory

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
844 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

INZ001-002-141045-
/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0002.171214T0900Z-171214T1700Z/
Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Gary and Valparaiso
844 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect Snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday.
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Lake and Porter Counties in northwest Indiana.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 11 AM CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for widely varying visibility,
  with visibilities falling below one half mile at times.
  Snowfall rates up to one inch per hour are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Snowing hard right now in Calumet...just came back from Houghton and the sun was breaking through down there. I don't think they got much that direction, seems to be more from Calumet north to at least Mohawk.  Advisory just got extended here for another 24 hours, calling for possibly another 8 inches. They keep seeming to bust on the low end, so hopefully more...tho I'm being greedy, lol.

Not much new snow here in Hancock since I blew the drive at 7 am. Just half inch total since.

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Picked up about a foot of snow so far today not counting last nights 4-5", snowpack over 20" for the first time this winter. Gonna take awhile to clean it up then going to fire up the sled for the first time this year. My area has been under multiple LES banding pushing 2" per hr at times. To bad the bay area freezes so early ever year I would average well over 200" a year damn shallow water. 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.APX.N0Q.20171216.136.012ani.gif

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18 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Picked up about a foot of snow so far today not counting last nights 4-5", snowpack over 20" for the first time this winter. Gonna take awhile to clean it up then going to fire up the sled for the first time this year. My area has been under multiple LES banding pushing 2" per hr at times. To bad the bay area freezes so early ever year I would average well over 200" a year damn shallow water. 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.APX.N0Q.20171216.136.012ani.gif

Nice! Enjoy! I have had about 17 inches fall over the past week, but it is so fluffy, it just keeps packing down. Snow depth has been a steady 8 to 10 inches.

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