dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lots of weenies calling busts when things playing out exactly AMOUT No surprises with the wind and rain yet. Lots of rain to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 68F, wind 8mph, had a gust around 5pm 29mph, .45" since 6am, hvy rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: No surprises with the wind and rain yet. Lots of rain to go. Stormy night as we thought but big winds moving out so I think that underperformed some. Didn't see any 60 mph gusts in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You had 50-60. It will verify somehow someway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 Is there a way to tell how high up the radar beam is sampling? Using the OKX radar that line of thunderstorms in western LI doesn't seem to have a whole ton of wind on the velocity, however, looking at ENX its showing much more wind. I know (or assuming) that since OKX is closer it is sampling much lower...which in this case of wanting wind you would want to see alot and ENX is looking much higher up. Just don't know at what distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 The rain will be there just the wind and danger of spinners wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is there a way to tell how high up the radar beam is sampling? Using the OKX radar that line of thunderstorms in western LI doesn't seem to have a whole ton of wind on the velocity, however, looking at ENX its showing much more wind. I know (or assuming) that since OKX is closer it is sampling much lower...which in this case of wanting wind you would want to see alot and ENX is looking much higher up. Just don't know at what distance Yeah...take your beam angle and apply some SOHCAHTOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah...take your beam angle and apply some SOHCAHTOA. so beam angle, and then distance from radar site? hmm well this would be some fun trig practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Stormy night as we thought but big winds moving out so I think that underperformed some. Didn't see any 60 mph gusts in SNE I think only Kevin expected that. Winds are pretty much going as modeled like Scott said. Last I peeked the LLJ peaks up here around 6z. FROPA should be around 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: so beam angle, and then distance from radar site? hmm well this would be some fun trig practice. Radarscope does it for you. But yeah...make out a right triangle. You have your distance and angle. tan(theta)=(height/distance). You have theta and the distance. Solve for h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 A/C will be on. Somehow my temp has risen. 72/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Radarscope does it for you. But yeah...make out a right triangle. You have your distance and angle. tan(theta)=(height/distance). You have theta and the distance. Solve for h. Radarcscope does it for you? hmmm...I'll play and check around. but this would be fun practice to do out by hand and I'll be able to verify my work by checking radarscope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 0.59" here, radar precip estimates are way low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You had 50-60. 48-53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: No surprises with the wind and rain yet. Lots of rain to go. I think the rain will underperform on the west side and the Greens/Berks in general... that area on both GFS/NAM were consistently shown 2"+, even some 3" amounts. Doubt it comes close to the widespread nature the models had. Probably more hit and miss big totals. I think the GGEM will be correct with a further east axis of the best rainfall totals. I'll save you that "glad we don't live there" but its definitely a little under what was progged in western New England unless it "backs" into the area, which seems unlikely unless it goes negative tilt. Wind was a bit more than I was thinking...we don't get a lot of wind here in the valley bottom but it was legit today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Local met had 6-7" through Monday. Not sure I'm buying it. Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think the rain will underperform on the west side and the Greens/Berks in general... that area on both GFS/NAM were consistently shown 2"+, even some 3" amounts. Doubt it comes close to the widespread nature the models had. Probably more hit and miss big totals. I think the GGEM will be correct with a further east axis of the best rainfall totals. I'll save you that "glad we don't live there" but its definitely a little under what was progged in western New England unless it "backs" into the area, which seems unlikely unless it goes negative tilt. Wind was a bit more than I was thinking...we don't get a lot of wind here in the valley bottom but it was legit today. Yeah we'll see where that next batch lines up. Nammy was hitting VT hard with that before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 18z GFS still pumping big totals though...maybe it comes through with the widespread 2-4" from the Green Mtn Spine eastward in VT...but we'll see. GGEM continues to have the better look based on ground truth, to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah we'll see where that next batch lines up. Nammy was hitting VT hard with that before midnight. If you look at the radar loop and blend the models... I like the area from C.CT up to the ORH Hills and up into the Lakes Region, or a bit west of that (like Manadnocks Region up towards Franconia Notch). The spots that get a good drink from this initial burst, followed by the training of what is developing south of LI and east of NJ, should be able to get into that 2-4" range. They are quick moving but provide quite the punch in terms of rainfall. You sit under one of those streaks for a couple hours and you'll be 1"+ easily in 60-120 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 not a "bad" mid-level meso SW of Bridgepoop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I think only Kevin expected that. Winds are pretty much going as modeled like Scott said. Last I peeked the LLJ peaks up here around 6z. FROPA should be around 9z. CNE NNE has been progged for the best winds all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 My phone just blared out a flash flood warning, scared the &^$#@ out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: CNE NNE has been progged for the best winds all week Maybe on the mtns. Best LLJ was down here. Only Maine will beat it but it may be inverted there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Lots of minor damage and urban flooding reports. Pretty typical so far. Steady as she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Quite the firehose going from BDR to BAF right now. Just east of it here with some occasional heavier showers for now with Flash Flood Warnings up until 1:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 25, 2017 Author Share Posted October 25, 2017 Lightning!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 I may be wrong, as some spots will certainly get some good totals in Eastern VT. Found that the Orange Heights, which do well on S/SE flows into the 3,000ft terrain, should get 3"+ out of this. Most live 1,200-1,700ft in this area but they are a high efficiency zone in these moist southerly setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 holy fooking rain and wind Batman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Like 45 seconds of insanity. Whiteout rain, trees bending over. Woah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 Just to my east, missed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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