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Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 Strong to Severe Storm Potential


weatherwiz

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Whats the timing of said danger? I have to pick up my kid at 8 in Prospect and make the treck back to DXR. We talking mostly heavy rain at that time or potential spinners that satisfy Wizzy’s weenie? 

I hate driving in high wind/rain especially with my kid on board. 

I'm thinking anywhere between like 7 PM and 11 PM here.  I also don't think we can rule out some potential of any activity during the day

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The BOX AFD is nice but a little unwhelming.  My ZFP is calling for 30mph, p/c is gusts to 43mph.

Good instability also develops across central and western areas
during Tue afternoon. TQ values increase to the upper teens,
with K indices reaching the lower-mid 30s across central and
western areas. Have mentioned some thunderstorms in the forecast
as well. Also, with strong low and mid level jet associated
with the approach surface front and mid level short wave, expect
S winds gusting up to 30-40 mph, highest along the S coast.

 

Meanwhile, some decent showers rolling through here between 3:00-4:00a.m.

 

 

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Should be dynamic setup. Might have two areas if the NAM is right/ NYC to western MA and then over SE MA later tonight and tomorrow. Both areas seem to have some UH swaths on the 3 KM NAM. In addition, Two areas of FF potential. One over ern NY and adjacent western MA and into CT. The other area near and east of 95 over SE MA and the Cape. Secondary sharp s/w rounding the base Wed and Wed night will need to be watched for renewed heavy rain in those areas. This also looks like one of those setups that may support gusts 40-45kts outside of convection. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be dynamic setup. Might have two areas if the NAM is right/ NYC to western MA and then over SE MA later tonight and tomorrow. Both areas seem to have some UH swaths on the 3 KM NAM. In addition, Two areas of FF potential. One over ern NY and adjacent western MA and into CT. The other area near and east of 95 over SE MA and the Cape. Secondary sharp s/w rounding the base Wed and Wed night will need to be watched for renewed heavy rain in those areas. This also looks like one of those setups that may support gusts 40-45kts outside of convection. 

Euro Likes CCT and SE Ma through Thursday with SEMA getting the developing secondary pretty good, remains Meh on winds with gusts to 45 in most of SNE. peaks of sun at work now .24 here

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54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

DITs “congrats upstate NY” works...its like TautonFlizz’s “meh” then he gets 20”. I have to stop being so optimistic. Apparently mother weather likes to prove weenies wrong.

Not sure what you mean but the Mesos crush your area and give me Under .50. Congrats River west

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Lack of diabetic heating should limit destabilization for the most part, as noted by SPC. Not really much you can do with the severe potential if you struggle to get the CAPE above 500 j/kg in few spots, but I've seen crazier things in limited set-ups. Wind threat still a major factor synoptically, however.

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