weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Whats the timing of said danger? I have to pick up my kid at 8 in Prospect and make the treck back to DXR. We talking mostly heavy rain at that time or potential spinners that satisfy Wizzy’s weenie? I hate driving in high wind/rain especially with my kid on board. I'm thinking anywhere between like 7 PM and 11 PM here. I also don't think we can rule out some potential of any activity during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm thinking anywhere between like 7 PM and 11 PM here. I also don't think we can rule out some potential of any activity during the day Ugh. Terrible timing. Hope you bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 Like the CAPE's on the NAMNST soundings for tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 This has yikes written all over it. The LCL is just above the sfc and you have a great deal of directional shear and over 600 J of MLcape...oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 NAM gone wild. Widespread 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Stay safe Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 The BOX AFD is nice but a little unwhelming. My ZFP is calling for 30mph, p/c is gusts to 43mph. Good instability also develops across central and western areas during Tue afternoon. TQ values increase to the upper teens, with K indices reaching the lower-mid 30s across central and western areas. Have mentioned some thunderstorms in the forecast as well. Also, with strong low and mid level jet associated with the approach surface front and mid level short wave, expect S winds gusting up to 30-40 mph, highest along the S coast. Meanwhile, some decent showers rolling through here between 3:00-4:00a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 24, 2017 Author Share Posted October 24, 2017 6z NAM boosted cape values for late afternoon/early evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Already ripping out there. 5 mile run in leaf blizzards and acorns pounding down. One right off my head. It’s noticeably stronger above 800 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Should be dynamic setup. Might have two areas if the NAM is right/ NYC to western MA and then over SE MA later tonight and tomorrow. Both areas seem to have some UH swaths on the 3 KM NAM. In addition, Two areas of FF potential. One over ern NY and adjacent western MA and into CT. The other area near and east of 95 over SE MA and the Cape. Secondary sharp s/w rounding the base Wed and Wed night will need to be watched for renewed heavy rain in those areas. This also looks like one of those setups that may support gusts 40-45kts outside of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Windier than I expected here at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 It’s scarey out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Feels almost like a tropical system is coming. Breezy and very warm and humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Winds 30 gusts to low 40s down in NYC so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 .38 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Should be dynamic setup. Might have two areas if the NAM is right/ NYC to western MA and then over SE MA later tonight and tomorrow. Both areas seem to have some UH swaths on the 3 KM NAM. In addition, Two areas of FF potential. One over ern NY and adjacent western MA and into CT. The other area near and east of 95 over SE MA and the Cape. Secondary sharp s/w rounding the base Wed and Wed night will need to be watched for renewed heavy rain in those areas. This also looks like one of those setups that may support gusts 40-45kts outside of convection. Euro Likes CCT and SE Ma through Thursday with SEMA getting the developing secondary pretty good, remains Meh on winds with gusts to 45 in most of SNE. peaks of sun at work now .24 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Already ripping out there. 5 mile run in leaf blizzards and acorns pounding down. One right off my head. It’s noticeably stronger above 800 feet So brave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 DITs “congrats upstate NY” works...its like TautonFlizz’s “meh” then he gets 20”. I have to stop being so optimistic. Apparently mother weather likes to prove weenies wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DITs “congrats upstate NY” works...its like TautonFlizz’s “meh” then he gets 20”. I have to stop being so optimistic. Apparently mother weather likes to prove weenies wrong. Now your getting it. Emotions are useless when it comes to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro Likes CCT and SE Ma through Thursday with SEMA getting the developing secondary pretty good, remains Meh on winds with gusts to 45 in most of SNE. peaks of sun at work now .24 here We’ll take Scooter and Ryan over Euro modeled outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Now your getting it. Emotions are useless when it comes to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll take Scooter and Ryan over Euro modeled outputs This isn't widespread 50kts. Probably a lot of 40kts to maybe 45kts with convection of heavy showers bringing stronger winds down stronger than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DITs “congrats upstate NY” works...its like TautonFlizz’s “meh” then he gets 20”. I have to stop being so optimistic. Apparently mother weather likes to prove weenies wrong. Not sure what you mean but the Mesos crush your area and give me Under .50. Congrats River west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: This isn't widespread 50kts. Probably a lot of 40kts to maybe 45kts with convection of heavy showers bringing stronger winds down stronger than that. Yeah I see many 48-54mph gusts for most with convection giving lucky folks 60+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Here we go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 I’m sure it’ll find a way to disappoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Wind is fairly pedestrian thus far at my house, but was roaring on top of East Rock on my run. Brutally humid as well. Later may be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 LLJ is still over NYC and CT. The winds expand in the aftn. It will be very windy later today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 Lack of diabetic heating should limit destabilization for the most part, as noted by SPC. Not really much you can do with the severe potential if you struggle to get the CAPE above 500 j/kg in few spots, but I've seen crazier things in limited set-ups. Wind threat still a major factor synoptically, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Here we go!! Shelter in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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