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Tuesday, October 24th, 2017 Strong to Severe Storm Potential


weatherwiz

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16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Get to do it all over again on Monday too with a little more oomph.

That system looks a goodly bit more mechanically powerful too - 

We're not seeing the deepening rates modeled in the GFS trends, like we are in the Euro (haven't seen their respective ensemble members) but what they do have more in common is a powerful S/W with with huge slug of mid level wind max rotating N up the coast inside of lowering heights/negative tilt. That usually supports more surface evolution like the Euro so I'm willing to suspect the GFS has some work to do there. 

But more importantly, that could produce a huge wind burst with that.  I haven't looked at anything discrete ... like sounding impressions based upon modeled input parameters and junk ...but, whenever you see that sort of evolution, you think tropospheric folding ...or at least some sort of transfering of momentum.  Particularly just after the low passes and the wind comes back around... the isol. wind burst made get an assist from instability+overturning.  I've seen those sort of deep mid level trough translate and somehow the surface dodges the bullet, but...seeing as that's modeled that way, that could be a real fun 12 hours in there. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That system looks a goodly bit more mechanically powerful too - 

We're not seeing the deepening rates modeled in the GFS trends, like we are in the Euro (haven't seen their respective ensemble members) but what they do have more in common is a powerful S/W with with huge slug of mid level wind max rotating N up the coast inside of lowering heights/negative tilt. That usually supports more surface evolution like the Euro so I'm will to suspect the GFS has some work to do there. 

But more importantly, that could produce a huge wind burst with that.  I haven't looked at anything discrete ... like sounding impressions based upon modeled input parameters and junk ...but, whenever you see that sort of evolution, you think tropospheric folding ...or at least some sort of transfering of momentum.  Particularly just after the low passes and the wind comes back around... the isol. wind burst made get an assist from instability+overturning.  I've seen those sort of deep mid level trough translate and somehow the surface dodges the bullet, but...seeing as that's modeled that way, that could be a real fun 12 hours in there. 

Looks to be quite impressive for the time of year, Looks to place a good dent in the drought numbers after this one and monday's potential with some damaging winds along the coastal areas.

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i'm getting ever more curious how the U.S. drought monitoring is equated - 

we had a surplus as of June.  Most reservoirs were bank full throughout the summer and we had ample convection.  I don't see , given those surface complexions, how they doomed the region back into a moderate drought scenario after a single month's dearth in rains.  Based on 'life experience' the background hydro status doesn't really suffer that quickly. 

but, ...i'll stop at wanting to know how they calculate, first.  

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12 hours ago, dendrite said:

I'm talking the whole shabang. There's too much useless cold for me up there and plenty of shadowing there too. I went to LSC a couple of years...the frequent 1-3" events don't wow me. Come warm season I'll take the nicer DDH weather with the better chances for severe. 

The lack of retention at DDH would probably cause me to tie the noose eventually. So bad there. Though I do sympathize with the awful June freezes at CDA. I do like my summers to be pleasant. If they aren't going to be, then I want massive retention and good snowstorms in April...which CDA doesn't really offer.

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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The lack of retention at DDH would probably cause me to tie the noose eventually. So bad there. Though I do sympathize with the awful June freezes at CDA. I do like my summers to be pleasant. If they aren't going to be, then I want massive retention and good snowstorms in April...which CDA doesn't really offer.

CDA has fantastic retention?  To me the summers are pleasant with very little huge heat/humidity...much better summer than DDH.  78/48 type stuff.

Theyll get 6" and it'll still be there 3 months later lol.  

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