October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[MJO812]

Wow EPS

[NJwx85]

When the GFS is following all the garbage modeling it's usually a sign that it's horrifically wrong. As always the truth usually lies between, near the EPS which is far superior. 

[etudiant]

None of the models have done well this fall here in NYC . They over promise and then under perform.

Maybe this pattern change will set a new trend.  ;)

 

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, etudiant said:

None of the models have done well this fall here in NYC . They over promise and then under perform.

Maybe this pattern change will set a new trend. 

 

What's the sample size for this trend? We haven't exactly been swimming in synoptic precip events since met. fall began.

[SnoSki14]

FWIW looks like the Nam's on board, a bit east of the EPS but strong 970s. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

FWIW looks like the Nam's on board, a bit east of the EPS but strong 970s. 

Euro camp

Almost there

[RedSky]

0z GFS with the .3" locally 12z euro 4-6" good times are here again primed for winter

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

0z GFS with the .3" locally 12z euro 4-6" good times are here again primed for winter

 

Gfs shifted slightly west

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

What's the sample size for this trend? We haven't exactly been swimming in synoptic precip events since met. fall began.

People have looked at the qpf output of various models for convective systems over the last few months and if the models are off for their area they're wrong and have performed poorly lately.  

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

GFS is a tick west and a bit stronger 

[MJO812]

Ukie is into SMH

 

[Rjay]

(Hr 72 precip panel won't load on here so I toik a screenshot)

 

Some images from the 0z Euro

 

[Rjay]

Hmmm, I wonder which will end up closer to reality, the GFS or the EPS.....

[SnoSki14]

Trends are very unimpressive, gfs is basically just a cold front now. 

[dmillz25]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Trends are very unimpressive, gfs is basically just a cold front now. 

Meh Euro/Ukmet say different 

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Hmmm, I wonder which will end up closer to reality, the GFS or the EPS.....

Unfortunately the eps also suffers from the over amped and west bias the new Euro has 

[dmillz25]

It will still be a good storm regardless of solution 

[NortheastPAWx]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Trends are very unimpressive, gfs is basically just a cold front now. 

Do you people look at any other model besides the off hour GFS?

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Trends are very unimpressive, gfs is basically just a cold front now. 

Just stop

What trends ? Don't start this now. It's not even winter yet  

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Unfortunately the eps also suffers from the over amped and west bias the new Euro has 

Ukie is similar so you can't discount it

[jm1220]

I can definitely see there being a shaft zone somewhere between the initial slug of rain well inland and what develops from the offshore low. That area might get an inch of rain while elsewhere gets 2-3" or more. The offshore low will rob from the inland area of rain, and the upper level features may not develop in time to create a CCB /comma head area of heavy rain until it's north of us in New England. That doesn't develop until mid level lows close off and push moisture west at the mid levels. 

[qg_omega]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I can definitely see there being a shaft zone somewhere between the initial slug of rain well inland and what develops from the offshore low. That area might get an inch of rain while elsewhere gets 2-3" or more. The offshore low will rob from the inland area of rain, and the upper level features may not develop in time to create a CCB /comma head area of heavy rain. That doesn't develop until mid level lows close off and push moisture west at the mid levels. 

I would bet Eastern NJ or right over NYC for the shaft zone missing the heavy rain to the West and heavy wind to the east

[dmillz25]

Pessimists galore again

[White Gorilla]

Sounds like a winter storm threat except rain instead of frozen.  

[The Iceman]

Mods feel free to move this, but I found this great site that has precip, 6 hour intervals, 10m winds, and more for the EURO as well as the EPS and Ukie all for free. I haven't seen any of this data outside of subscription sites. http://wx.graphics/ 

[forkyfork]

this nam run looks west so far

[psv88]

NAM looks pretty weak to me.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this nam run looks west so far

Nam is still east with the 2nd low

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

NAM looks pretty weak to me.

It's correcting

[Stormlover74]

Why are we looking at the nam 48 hours out again?