October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[canderson]

Popping in from central PA: We're in NYC for an event Saturday and have a 5 p.m. train home Sunday. Winds can really screw Amtrak up, as currently depicted the stronger winds don't start until the overnight Sunday into Monday hours correct? It costs a small fortune to change my Amtrak tickets earlier sooooo. 

[NJwx85]

[Snowberd]

I’m sure it’s not gone unnoticed that 10/29 5 years ago was Sandy. Although not much of a comparison other than the date and it’s tropical DNA


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[SEC]

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

Popping in from central PA: We're in NYC for an event Saturday and have a 5 p.m. train home Sunday. Winds can really screw Amtrak up, as currently depicted the stronger winds don't start until the overnight Sunday into Monday hours correct? 

Correct. Those stronger winds shouldn't impact the area until early Monday morning.

 

[NJwx85]

33 minutes ago, SEC said:

Correct. Those stronger winds shouldn't impact the area until early Monday morning.

 

 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Popping in from central PA: We're in NYC for an event Saturday and have a 5 p.m. train home Sunday. Winds can really screw Amtrak up, as currently depicted the stronger winds don't start until the overnight Sunday into Monday hours correct? It costs a small fortune to change my Amtrak tickets earlier sooooo. 

While winds will be increasing Sunday night, stronger winds arrive as early as 18z Sunday on the Euro, especially along the coast. I would think you should be okay though, as the further West you travel the less the winds will be an issue. At least as currently forecast.

[forkyfork]

the best winds for the metro on westward would be from backside westerlies (as modeled right now on the euro/eps/ukmet). LI has the best shot at strong southeasterlies 

[hooralph]

How about rain about 5 PM on Sunday? We’re supposed to have an outdoor Halloween birthday party (20 stories up ). Any prayer of getting that in?

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, hooralph said:

How about rain about 5 PM on Sunday? We’re supposed to have an outdoor Halloween birthday party (20 stories up ). Any prayer of getting that in?

I would say the chance of rain is near 100%. I would try to move it to Saturday night if you can.

[SnoSki14]

Gfs says "what storm"? Fluke run or a trend, thank god this isn't a snowstorm.

[Rtd208]

When the "18z screwy run" occurs you know you are going to get a big storm lol. I would not be concerned unless some of the other models start jumping on to that idea and even then proceed with caution. I would lean heavily towards the Euro. 

[nesussxwx]

8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

When the "18z screwy run" occurs you know you are going to get a big storm lol. I would not be concerned unless some of the other models start jumping on to that idea and even then proceed with caution. I would lean heavily towards the Euro. 

I would not. Euro has had a western bias, and overamped so many events since Juno. I believe it was upgraded that year as well.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, nesussxwx said:

I would not. Euro has a western bias, and also has overamped so many events since Juno. 

And gfs has a progressive bias. If models jump towards it at 0z then it may have some legs but I'm not going to throw away the Euro for the Gfs. 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

And gfs has a progressive bias. If models jump towards it at 0z then it may have some legs but I'm not going to throw away the Euro for the Gfs. 

Mistake this isn't the same Euro formerly known as Dr. No

[dmillz25]

Pessimists galore right now

[nesussxwx]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Mistake this isn't the same Euro formerly known as Dr. No

Agreed. Wouldn't be leaning on anything in this case. If anything, I would lean on the scenario that is not historic, just because of odds alone. 

[Rtd208]

14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Pessimists galore right now

Like clockwork.

[Newman]

Crankyweatherguy on twitter says right now, at least, he would lean right side of envelope:

 

[Rtd208]

9 minutes ago, Newman said:

Crankyweatherguy on twitter says right now, at least, he would lean right side of envelope:

 

It is a possibility, this guy is pretty good and I follow him on Twitter. With that being said, you also don't want to misinterpret what he is saying, does he mean OTS or just on the eastern side of the envelop as far as track? The point is, becoming concerned that this will be a non event based of off one run of the NAM/GFS is not the smartest idea, would like to see future runs and other models come on board with that scenario before buying into it.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It is a possibility, this guy is pretty good and I follow him on Twitter. With that being said, you also don't want to misinterpret what he is saying, does he mean OTS or just on the eastern side of the envelop as far as track? The point is, becoming concerned that this will be a non event based of off one run of the NAM/GFS is not the smartest idea, would like to see future runs and other models come on board with that scenario before buying into it.

Adding to my previous post, he does mention the GFS could be correct and thinking the Euro is to far west, something to monitor as we head into the 00z runs tonight and tomorrows runs. I will tell you what, if the Euro blows this I think people will be very hesitant to buy into it this winter if it shows a big storm and I do agree with some on here that the Euro is a bit of a shell of its former self i.e. upgrades= bad.

[nesussxwx]

 

[donsutherland1]

The interactions involved are highly complex. There’s a lot of uncertainty. This is the kind of storm for which major details might not be resolved until 24 to 36 hours prior to the event. Having said that, it’s probably more likely than not that the higher resolution models may have a better early grasp on the solution. Still, there’s too much uncertainty to have good confidence in any particular solution.

[Rtd208]

47 minutes ago, Newman said:

Crankyweatherguy on twitter says right now, at least, he would lean right side of envelope:

 

 

8 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

 

How are you guys embedding the tweets? I am having issues doing it following normal embed procedures.

[nesussxwx]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

How are you guys embedding the tweets? I am having issues doing it following normal embed procedures.

I post the direct link onto where I submit replies. 

[NortheastPAWx]

One 18z GFS run and everyone loses their mind.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

I post the direct link onto where I submit replies. 

Now I got it, thanks.

[nesussxwx]

20 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

One 18z GFS run and everyone loses their mind.

Plus NAM, and NAVGEM. 

[CIK62]

The problem is the 500mb low never develops and the one at 850mb closes off too late and over Vermont on Monday AM.   We are sandwiched  between two distinct areas of loose winds to the north and south.  Need to see some phasing or we have an under performer here, if you were expecting big time action.  I used the NAVGEM for this.

In addition waves at Buoy 44025 are down to just a regular 4' for the time frame, and not much higher anywhere else either.  Was 11' yesterday.  Waves are actually higher than that right now!

[NortheastPAWx]

21 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Plus NAM, and NAVGEM. 

Wake me when the UK and Euro go that way...NAM? Get real. NAVGEM? Always progressive.

[Rtd208]

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I would probably go with the EPS mean for now which is a little east of the OP. The GFS has an east bias with these systems and the OP Euro can be too far west .

 

 

 

 

 

Given the strength and crazy persistence of the WAR, along with the super warm SSTs positively feeding it, since the 1st week of September, I’m going with the EURO for now....