October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[MJO812]

0z Ukie is similar to the Euro

 

[Rtd208]

The 06z GFS looks less impressive then previous runs at least precipitation wise. I would lean more towards the Euro here especially since it has some support and we are now in its powerhouse range.

[SnoSki14]

Euro looked intense, gfs and cmc having difficulties with intensity and track run to run probably due to the tropical influence muddying things up. 

A lot can still change. 

[NJwx85]

I haven't thoroughly examined the latest GFS run to compare, but the Euro has been consistently showing two separate but intense surface low pressures. One that tracks right along the NJ coast and the other towards the benchmark. Normally the further East low would eventually steal the show, but in this case you have such an intense feature combined with a strongly negatively tilted trough, and therefore the further West SLP eventually absorbs the one further East.

[CIK62]

Buoy 44025 wave height down to 7' from 11' yesterday for this storm passage.   Based on GFS runs I think.

[bluewave]

12z NAM just joined the more tucked in Euro and UKMET solutions.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

[NJwx85]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

12z NAM just joined the more tucked in Euro and UKMET solutions.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/wrfloop.html

Very wet run too, starts very early Sunday morning, this is only through 00z Monday, which is only about half the storm.

As you can see the SLP is still down in the mid-atlantic

[hudsonvalley21]

This weeks rain and rain in advance of this next event will soften up the ground. Also, the trees running behind with the fall foliage won't be a good thing if the high winds occur. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

This weeks rain and rain in advance of this next event will soften up the ground. Also, the trees running behind with the fall foliage won't be a good thing if the high winds occur. 

Agree-while it's been dry here-we had 4 inches with the Tuesday deluge...

[SnoSki14]

Gfs beginning to jump towards the Euro.

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS still develops things a little too late so New England gets the prolific rains instead of NJ/NY. Still a wet run though for much of the area.

 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs beginning to jump towards the Euro.

always the same thing with this model-last to get on board.

[Stormlover74]

I'd be very nervous if this was a snow event. 30-50 miles south west of the area gets less than an inch on the gfs

[NJwx85]

A little hard to tell based on 24hr time stamps but it looks like the 12z UKMET was a tremendous hit.

[Juliancolton]

Here's the extended RGEM being trotted out for the first time this season. A momentous occasion.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

A little hard to tell based on 24hr time stamps but it looks like the 12z UKMET was a tremendous hit.

972 mb right over NYC this run.

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

[nesussxwx]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd be very nervous if this was a snow event. 30-50 miles south west of the area gets less than an inch on the gfs

Agreed. Too close for comfort. If I were in Philly right now I wouldn't be surprised if I get skunked. 

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Agreed. Too close for comfort. If I were in Philly right now I wouldn't be surprised if I get skunked. 

The evolving setup means the axis of heavy rain will keep shifting over the next 72 hours. 

[NJwx85]

Epic Euro run

[Neblizzard]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Epic Euro run

That is a massive hit for sure. 3-6 inches of rain area wide with 50-70 mph wind gusts.

[Brian5671]

And this is just 3 days away....euro in its deadly range.

[jm1220]

I agree with those who think the track will be further west. The offshore ridge means business, and the tropical moisture feeding into the low will mean it deepens pretty fast. Those will push the track west. 

[bluewave]

2 areas of high winds on the 12z Euro. The first is with the SE flow ahead of the storm and then with the westerlies behind the storm.

 

[NJwx85]

Some of the top ten analogs from CIPS are 10/26/80, 10/28/87, 9/27/85, 11/20/03 & 10/1/10.

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2 areas of high winds on the 12z Euro. The first is with the SE flow ahead of the storm and then with the westerlies behind the storm.

the backside almost looks like a sting jet

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the backside almost looks like a sting jet

I was just going to say the same thing.

 

[doncat]

973 mb at our latitude and still deepening . 

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

And this is just 3 days away....euro in its deadly range.

Things are looking pretty good for a strong storm, I could see the storm coming in even further SW around S NJ or even the Delmarva if it's as strong as the Euro/Ukmet shows. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, doncat said:

973 mb at our latitude and still deepening . 

We're in a good spot for this, the strongest storms usually occur as the system is deepening rather than at peak intensity. Too often we're either too early or too late in the game.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We're in a good spot for this, the strongest storms usually occur as the system is deepening rather than at peak intensity. Too often we're either too early or too late in the game.

What kind of storms showed up within those top analogs?