October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro and Ukie

Both have a sub 980 low

 

we need that into southern NJ to get into the strong winds

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

we need that into southern NJ to get into the strong winds

Agree

Euro and GFS have hurricane force wind gusts in eastern SNE

[MJO812]

JB

Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

JB

Phase 8 MJO argues a more western track than what the models are showing

I agree with him, also note how far west the trough axis and subsequent negative tilt is. I wouldn't be surprised to see the low go southwest of our area. 

[MJO812]

6z GEFS mean is a lot further west than the op

[NJwx85]

This storm has blockbuster written all over it. 

Negatively tilted trough with an influx of tropical moisture along the strengthening LLJ.

Reminds me of this beauty

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm has blockbuster written all over it. 

Negatively tilted trough with an influx of tropical moisture along the strengthening LLJ.

Reminds me of this beauty

It all depends on where the tropical low ends up. To see the strong winds we need the low to crash into NJ.

[MJO812]

Euro is further west compared to gfs and cmc.

 

[SnoSki14]

It's a little early to say this will be a Blockbuster. I think we'll get a decent storm out of this but it'll probably be comparable to a nor'easter.

[NJwx85]

Expect to see a dry slot close to where the low tracks. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Could anyone explain the lack of NE winds ascociated or prolonged NE winds for that matter, I thought for sure this would be our first “nor’easter” but the winds don’t appear to follow suite 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a little early to say this will be a Blockbuster. I think we'll get a decent storm out of this but it'll probably be comparable to a nor'easter.

I think it will be worse than a typical noreaster. This storm is going to absorb tropical moisture from the tropical system down south.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Could anyone explain the lack of NE winds ascociated or prolonged NE winds for that matter, I thought for sure this would be our first “nor’easter” but the winds don’t appear to follow suite 

If the track of the SLP is close enough to the coast then we will get into the stronger winds, the Euro track would result in a strong Southeasterly feed at the coast. The GFS on the other hand is too far offshore.

[jm1220]

Worried about a western track into NJ here. That kind of southerly fetch would be a massive coastal flood threat here obviously. And associated power outages/tree damage. This looks like a beast. 

[jm1220]

The stronger West Atlantic ridge we’ve been seeing is a warning for a further west track also. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Worried about a western track into NJ here. That kind of southerly fetch would be a massive coastal flood threat here obviously. And associated power outages/tree damage. This looks like a beast. 

Very eery ( date wise )

[Brian5671]

10/29 rule in effect. 

10/29/11-out of season blizzard/snow 

10/29/12 Sandy

10/29/17  ????

[NJwx85]

12z EPS mean

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Expect to see a dry slot close to where the low tracks. 

Right over the immediate NYC metro, but still 1-2" of rain with much higher amounts west. With that being said, we would have other issues to deal with as well i.e. winds. Still have a few more days to pin down the details.

[Rtd208]

52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z EPS mean

That is a pretty impressive mean this far out.

[SnoSki14]

Now if this plays out like what the gfs shows then this will be similar to a moderate nor'easter. 

Strongest winds would probably occur after the low passes through. 

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Now if this plays out like what the gfs shows then this will be similar to a moderate nor'easter. 

Strongest winds would probably occur after the low passes through. 

The 18z GFS was a bit closer to the Euro solution. Interestingly it dumps 13"+ over portions of Central New England.

[MJO812]

18z GEFS is more west than the op

[etudiant]

Have doubt this verifies any better than the storm that was forecast for the past weekend.

The models have not shown much skill in this region recently.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, etudiant said:

Have doubt this verifies any better than the storm that was forecast for the past weekend.

The models have not shown much skill in this region recently.

0z gfs and ggem aren't very impressive, rain but not much wind

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

0z gfs and ggem aren't very impressive, rain but not much wind

It's very impressive

Euro is much further west than the gfs and cmc

[MJO812]

0z Euro has a boatload of rain for the area

Hurricane force gusts also

[doncat]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

0z Euro has a boatload of rain for the area

Hurricane force gusts also

Wow has an intensifying 970 low coming up the jersey shore...shows 90+ mph gusts coming into southern portions of the city and as much as 7 inches of rain just west of the city.

[qg_omega]

30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's very impressive

Euro is much further west than the gfs and cmc

GFS and CMC are not impressive

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

GFS and CMC are not impressive

They still show a lot of rain

Very impressive