October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[psv88]

Wow. Ridiculous rain rates at the moment.

flood advisory in effect 

[bluewave]

Heaviest rains of the fall so far in Wantagh at 1.34" and rising. Getting some lightning the last 15 minutes here on the South Shore for the first time today. The record SST's and dewpoints finally delivered.

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heaviest rains of the fall so far in Wantagh at 1.34" and rising. Getting some lightning the last 15 minutes here on the South Shore for the first time today. The record SST's and dewpoints finally delivered.

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

 

[Brian5671]

big rains here, thunder and lightning-best storms since god knows when

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

big rains here, thunder and lightning-best storms since god knows when

And the first shot at 2 significant storms in under a week since I can't even remember. 

[Sn0waddict]

Plenty of thunder/lightning and very heavy rain. Nice deluge feels like it's been forever since we had one.

[Brian5671]

2.25 here and still going strong....

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

2.25 here and still going strong....

Yea we gotta be close to 3" here total. 2.20 since 8:15, gauge was clogged before then

[psv88]

2.74" since 8:15, still raining 

[psv88]

Flash flood  warning for western Suffolk

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Wow I was in the City oblivious, way to go wantagh!!!

[tmagan]

56 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Flash flood  warning for western Suffolk

That was cancelled five minutes later, I have never seen that before.

[bluewave]

I updated the storm thread title to include discussion of the next major storm potential on October 29th-30th. I figured we can keep this as the October storm thread.

[dmillz25]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I updated the storm thread title to include discussion of the next major storm potential on October 29th-30th. I figured we can keep this as the October storm thread.

That is looking to be a doozy 

[qg_omega]

0.17 here just a tad less than forecasted

[qg_omega]

Amazing how bad ALL of the forecast models in this event were.  I can't find one that came close to the actual rain that fell in the NYC area (less than. 25 on average)

[Brian5671]

3.87 Inches of rain at BDR!

[Brian5671]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Amazing how bad ALL of the forecast models in this event were.  I can't find one that came close to the actual rain that fell in the NYC area (less than. 25 on average)

if you look back 3 days, most runs favored areas just east of NYC...a few runs showed a more westerly solution....

[qg_omega]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if you look back 3 days, most runs favored areas just east of NYC...a few runs showed a more westerly solution....

Upton forecast the night before, doesn't really matter that it's rain...to me it ranks as one of their biggest busts ever

[Rtd208]

Anyone have the 00z Euro? Read in the mid-atlantic thread that it showed quite a strong storm for Sun/Mon.

[gravitylover]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

3.87 Inches of rain at BDR!

Wow what a difference in ~30 miles. I just added it up and KDXR ended with .88" total for the event. NY Mesonet has the other local stations much lower, both under .5, and a few of the local WU stations were also under .8". KHPN only had .18"! That's an amazing difference, nearly unheard of, in such a short distance.

[psv88]

3.50" from 8:15 pm on. So probably close to 4". Really wish rain gauge wasn't clogged before then

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Anyone have the 00z Euro? Read in the mid-atlantic thread that it showed quite a strong storm for Sun/Mon.

0z runs of the Euro, UKMET, and GFS trended stronger under 980 mb with the storm coming out of tropics.

New link below showing all 3 models:

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

 

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Anyone have the 00z Euro? Read in the mid-atlantic thread that it showed quite a strong storm for Sun/Mon.

Pretty good agreement this far out on a strong storm from Gfs/Euro/Ukmet. Looks like it bottoms out between 970-980. Extensive tropical connection will need to be monitored going forward.

[gravitylover]

How far ahead of the low will the rain be? I have an outdoor event in north Jersey I need to plan for early Sunday afternoon.

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

How far ahead of the low will the rain be? I have an outdoor event in north Jersey I need to plan for early Sunday afternoon.

 

It looks to be raining by Sunday morning

[gravitylover]

Thank you

 

[MJO812]

 A lot of wind and rain possible from this storm

The worst would be from mid Sunday - Monday

We still don't know yet if the low will become a tropical storm.

[qg_omega]

https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=15&type=NTP&frame=0&scale=0.6456521739130435&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=472.0202020202021&centery=209.7979797979798&transx=72.02020202020208&transy=-30.202020202020208&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25148922&lat=41.04000092&lon=-73.75&label=West+Harrison

[MJO812]

Euro and Ukie

Both have a sub 980 low