October 29-30th Intense Storm From Tropics Discussions & Observations

[gravitylover]

3.7" with light rain still falling, winds are no big deal at ~8-10 with gusts into the low 20's and the temp is 43* and still falling. Pretty fair bit of rain and a nice bump to reservoirs for you folks that depend on them but sadly the wind didn't strip the leaves so I can't do a final cut and put the mower to bed for the winter just yet. On the plus side the (forest) fire danger should be mitigated for the season now.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Snowberd said:

I’m not knowledgeable enough to know whether the Euro busted or not, can only speak for MBY, but having said that. I am located southwest nassau, in the water in Oceanside. None of the models showed what I got. Which was 22 sustained winds at best, occasional gusts to 40 and rain totaled 1.6” as of 10:30pm. I was part of the dry slot that separated the west precip from east. Also of note was when the winds shifted around that time, the winds were calm! No model that I saw depicted that. When I saw TWC it showed my area was dead center of the surrounding isobars . Felt like we were in the eye. All models showed a variance of higher winds out east but none picked up the rain disparity between my area and everywhere else. I’m talking specifically about Oceanside, RVC, Lynbrook? I thought since I am practically on the water the wind would be higher. And was shocked at how little rain we got compared to everyone else.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Forecasting how much of the LLJ will mix down in a WAA area ahead of cold fronts is always an inexact science. While the storm was rapidly deepening last night, the LLJ was also moving very quickly to the east. So it was more of a glancing blow. The general signal that Long Island would see the best wind gusts worked out. You can also see how there was always uncertainty on how far west the strongest winds would get. The immediate South Shore saw gusts into the 60's and gusts near 75 mph out just east of MTP to SE CT.

[cut]

42 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Thank you makes my point very well, Euro was too far SW, GFS was too far east, the middle worked.  Don't throw out the GFS and blindly follow the Euro.  If you adjust the Euro for it's bias and adjust the gfs for it's, boom great forecast.

What is that like an 80 mile difference?!?!? That is basically consensus ... come one man, just stop.

[Cfa]

Had to “turn around don’t drown” this morning, which added like 10 minutes to my commute, and large sections of Ocean Parkway are literally covered in sand so I took it slow.

Saw a few fallen trees, including one that struck a car, in a driveway with an empty carport, had they moved the car underneath it it wouldn’t have gotten hit.

I should have well over 3 inches, which makes this my biggest storm (by far) since the 13+ inch deluge in 2014 when I lived in Suffolk. How pathetic.

[MJO812]

Anyone have the rain totals for the area?

[Paragon]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Again..The Euro didn't  ever absorb Phillippe. 

Chris what was the reason that Phillippe wasn't absorbed or that we didn't have a Sandy-esque type track since there were some resemblances in the track further south near Cuba?

The block wasn't strong enough?

 

 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Paragon said:

Chris what was the reason that Phillippe wasn't absorbed or that we didn't have a Sandy-esque type track since there were some resemblances in the track further south near Cuba?

The block wasn't strong enough?

 

 

Comparing this to Sandy is apples to oranges. Other than the fact they both involved tropical systems, no comparison to track, intensity or features. 

[Paragon]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

New October low pressure record set for Albany.

Current barometric pressure of 976mb at Albany Int'l Airport sets a new record low for the month of October.

10:25 PM - 29 Oct 2017

 

 

What's the lowest pressure the storm got to? Last I saw it was around 970 mb

[Paragon]

55 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

4.05" should add a bit more then thats it

Bright and sunny now, don't think we get anything else- although last night the moon was out around 2 am (the "eye" of the storm?) and then two hours later it was raining heavily!

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Chris what was the reason that Phillippe wasn't absorbed or that we didn't have a Sandy-esque type track since there were some resemblances in the track further south near Cuba?

The block wasn't strong enough?

 

 

The shear way way too strong. So Phillippe had several center jumps before the its remnant energy was absorbed into the new developing system. But the energy input helped this set the new October low pressure in Albany.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Comparing this to Sandy is apples to oranges. Other than the fact they both involved tropical systems, no comparison to track, intensity or features. 

Not for the effects of course, but wondering what kept Philippe from being absorbed into the coastal storm and what prevented a track into the coast? I figure the answer's gonna be that the block wasn't strong enough and we're in a progressive pattern.

 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

What's the lowest pressure the storm got to? Last I saw it was around 970 mb

That's the record at Albany.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The shear way way too strong. So Phillippe had several center jumps before the its energy was absorbed into the new developing system. But the energy input helped this set the new October low pressure in Albany.

Yeah and the first time we've had below 29" barometric pressure in a few years.....

[Paragon]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Forecasting how much of the LLJ will mix down in a WAA area ahead of cold fronts is always an inexact science. While the storm was rapidly deepening last night, the LLJ was also moving very quickly to the east. So it was more of a glancing blow. The general signal that Long Island would see the best wind gusts worked out. You can also see how there was always uncertainty on how far west the strongest winds would get. The immediate South Shore saw gusts into the 60's and gusts near 75 mph out just east of MTP to SE CT.

Knowing local climatology, I already knew we wouldn't see anywhere near the highest wind gusts or the most rainfall in the area.  He's right in that the skies completely cleared out here for a few hours last night, which was a nice treat in itself- a very "eye-like" experience with the calm winds.  Winds weren't anything to write home about here (actually the westerlies we're getting right now seem to be about as strong as they got last night out of the south), but in situations like this, Suffolk County usually gets the best winds and NJ gets the best rainfall.  I would rate this as an average to slightly above average coastal, nothing special for the immediate area.

 

The most special thing about this storm was watching the pressure drop and the temperature change rapidly.

 

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Knowing local climatology, I already knew we wouldn't see anywhere near the highest wind gusts or the most rainfall in the area.  He's right in that the skies completely cleared out here for a few hours last night, which was a nice treat in itself- a very "eye-like" experience with the calm winds.  Winds weren't anything to write home about here (actually the westerlies we're getting right now seem to be about as strong as they got last night out of the south), but in situations like this, Suffolk County usually gets the best winds and NJ gets the best rainfall.  I would rate this as an average to slightly above average coastal, nothing special for the immediate area.

 

Yeah, we knew that Suffolk would see the strongest winds. The posters on here also did a good job discussing that the strongest winds may not get far enough west for some areas.

[Paragon]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

The only product that the Op Euro puts out that I am not a big fan of is the wind gust product which is often overdone. I am wondering if that is an add on by vendors?  The EPS wind gust product was closer to reality. I know that the WXbell fronzen precip  algo is often incorrect. So maybe they are doing the same thing with the winds?

https://weather.us/forecast/5116931-farmingdale/ensemble/euro/wind-gusts

Yeah someone posted the Euro wind forecast in the Tropics subforum and it had wind gusts of 103 mph into coastal Maine, that's not happening lol.

 

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Not for the effects of course, but wondering what kept Philippe from being absorbed into the coastal storm and what prevented a track into the coast? I figure the answer's gonna be that the block wasn't strong enough and we're in a progressive pattern.

 

Is that what occurred though? It appeared to me that a baroclinicily forced surface low pressure formed off the Carolina coast in response to the phased energy rounding the base of the negatively tilted trough. Although it was a warm cored system, or mostly warm core, I'm not sure it can be classified as tropical. Perhaps sub-tropical? Maybe someone else can elaborate on this further. However it's clear that either way the intensification processes were more that of a cold core system, or a noreaster. 

As far as Philippe is concerned, I believe the center merged with the tail end of the cold front. So although it wasn't absorbed by the new surface low, it was essentially absorbed by the frontal boundary which seems like semantics. 

[TriPol]

That was a fun storm! Let's do it again sometime!

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we knew that Suffolk would see the strongest winds. The posters on here also did a good job discussing that the strongest winds may not get far enough west for some areas.

50 mph is fine, with still fully leafed out trees no one wants to have a power outage lol.

I can count on one hand how many times high wind warnings have actually verified, getting 60+ mph winds here is pretty rare.

Our last positive bust in that direction was the March 2010 coastal- still one of my favorite storms of all time for how high the winds were- hurricane force gusts.  The last time I saw wind gusts like that around here was the great December 1992 noreaster.

[bluewave]

Just now, Paragon said:

50 mph is fine, with still fully leafed out trees no one wants to have a power outage lol.

I can count on one hand how many times high wind warnings have actually verified, getting 60+ mph winds here is pretty rare.

Our last positive bust in that direction was the March 2010 coastal- still one of my favorite storms of all time for how high the winds were- hurricane force gusts.  The last time I saw wind gusts like that around here was the great December 1992 noreaster.

Yeah, March 2010 was much different. The LLJ got pulled in from the east and parked over the area for hours of strong winds. Yesterday, it was racing NE. 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Is that what occurred though? It appeared to me that a baroclinicily forced surface low pressure formed off the Carolina coast in response to the phased energy rounding the base of the negatively tilted trough. Although it was a warm cored system, or mostly warm core, I'm not sure it can be classified as tropical. Perhaps sub-tropical? Maybe someone else can elaborate on this further. However it's clear that either way the intensification processes were more that of a cold core system, or a noreaster. 

As far as Philippe is concerned, I believe the center merged with the tail end of the cold front. So although it wasn't absorbed by the new surface low, it was essentially absorbed by the frontal boundary which seems like semantics. 

I definitely agree that the intensification was more of a cold core process.  Weirdest thing happened early yesterday morning though, big bright flashes of lightning around 7 AM with that first heavy band of rain that came in off the ocean.  We only had very intermittent downpours here yesterday, then a more consistent rainfall for a few hours last night, then the rapid pressure drop just before midnight before the skies cleared up for a few hours,  and then one hour of heavy rain on the backside between 4-5 AM this morning with gusty winds and a quick drop in temps.

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, March 2010 was much different. The LLJ got pulled in from the east and parked over the area for hours of strong winds. Yesterday, it was racing NE. 

Funny thing about March 2010, it was way more exciting on the south shore, vs the north shore, where they didn't get winds anywhere as strong as what we had.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I definitely agree that the intensification was more of a cold core process.  Weirdest thing happened early yesterday morning though, big bright flashes of lightning around 7 AM with that first heavy band of rain that came in off the ocean.  We only had very intermittent downpours here yesterday, then a more consistent rainfall for a few hours last night, then the rapid pressure drop just before midnight before the skies cleared up for a few hours,  and then one hour of heavy rain on the backside between 4-5 AM this morning with gusty winds and a quick drop in temps.

Well that's pretty consistent with the normal behavior of your standard cold core system. You were to the right of the SLP track and thus into the warm sector so it's not surprising that you received more convection as opposed to the heavy stratiform rain bands that most of us experienced. 

[Paragon]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Well that's pretty consistent with the normal behavior of your standard cold core system. You were to the right of the SLP track and thus into the warm sector so it's not surprising that you received more convection as opposed to the heavy stratiform rain bands that most of us experienced. 

Yep, it actually reminded me of some of our coastal runners.  We haven't had many of these types of storms in the last decade or so (had a lot of them in the early 90s though.)  The last one that I remember that took a similar track was the Tax Day Noreaster (April 2007).  That one also had an extremely low pressure and the center passed very close to JFK.

 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Funny thing about March 2010, it was way more exciting on the south shore, vs the north shore, where they didn't get winds anywhere as strong as what we had.

March 2010 remains my favorite non tropical rain storm. The wind gusts were very impressive and we had a tremendous amount of tree damage. Not quite to the level of Sandy, but it's number 2 in my memory. The winds were certainly more impressive than during Floyd or Irene locally. In the rainfall department, this system was very comparable to March 2010.

[MJO812]

March 2010 was way better than the storm yesterday

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Yep, it actually reminded me of some of our coastal runners.  We haven't had many of these types of storms in the last decade or so (had a lot of them in the early 90s though.)  The last one that I remember that took a similar track was the Tax Day Noreaster (April 2007).  That one also had an extremely low pressure and the center passed very close to JFK.

 

The track if I'm not mistaken was directly up the NJ coastline and then directly over NYC before tracking up the Hudson Valley and eventually into Upstate NY.

This track during the heart of Winter would have angered many of the coastal folks, and we'll leave it at that 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Snow88 said:

March 2010 was way better than the storm yesterday

Well as we said the winds were no comparison. The rain totals were similar, at least IMBY.

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

March 2010 remains my favorite non tropical rain storm. The wind gusts were very impressive and we had a tremendous amount of tree damage. Not quite to the level of Sandy, but it's number 2 in my memory. The winds were certainly more impressive than during Floyd or Irene locally. In the rainfall department, this system was very comparable to March 2010.

Yes, definitely one of my all-time favorites and gets underrated because of all the other action that happened that season.  I made a short list of my favorite non-snow non-tropical synoptic storms and it's right up there with Sandy, December 1992, Perfect Storm (October 1991).  Do you remember the December 1992 storm or October 1991?  Funny thing about October 1991 was that event was also preceded by a snowstorm in Minnesota and there was a tropical system involved that did not make landfall but gave some of its energy to a developing coastal storm, like this one did.  This one had much more rain than that one, while that one had stronger winds.

You would have absolutely loved both 1992-93 and 1993-94, 1992-93 for two of the most intense, high impact storms we've ever experienced to bookend the winter, and 1993-94 for the frequent storms and historic cold that we had.  Those years get lost because of the recent action we've had, but they were two of the best back to back storm seasons our area has ever had.

 

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The track if I'm not mistaken was directly up the NJ coastline and then directly over NYC before tracking up the Hudson Valley and eventually into Upstate NY.

This track during the heart of Winter would have angered many of the coastal folks, and we'll leave it at that 

I know! But geek that I am I would have enjoyed the rapid pressure drop.  Besides in the heart of winter everyone would have gotten at least a few inches of snow before any mix or changeover.  I could see a scenario where, if a deep enough layer of cold air was entrenched over the region, that it would go from snow to sleet and freezing rain at the end without actually changing to plain rain (except maybe the east end of the island.)  Sort of like the Valentines Day storm from 2007.